Prediction of the soil element accumulation trends based on 1∶250 000 and 1∶50 000 geochemical surveys and assessments of land quality:A case study of Xixiangtang District, Nanning City, Guangxi zhuang Autonomous Region
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摘要: 土壤重金属元素含量影响土壤环境质量,依据调查数据采用不同模型对土壤重金属元素含量进行预测是研究土壤元素含量及土壤环境质量变化趋势的重要手段。在研究区1∶25万多目标区域地球化学调查和1∶5万土地质量地球化学评价数据基础上,分别采用单时段增量模型和输入输出通量模型预测2027年土壤中5种重金属元素的含量情况,结果显示:两种模型的预测结果有所差异,但变化趋势一致,5种重金属元素含量均有不同程度增加,单时段增量模型的增幅大于输入输出通量模型的增幅;通量模型的各种输入途径中,Cd、Pb主要通过大气干湿沉降进入土壤,As和Cr主要通过施肥进入土壤,Hg主要通过灌溉水进入土壤;对土壤点位的调查数据、预测数据进行土壤环境质量等级划分,优先保护等级的点位数量比例呈现下降趋势,说明土壤环境质量逐年下降。Abstract: The heavy metal element contents in soil affect the quality of soil environment. Their prediction using different models based on survey data is an important means to study the changing trends of soil element contents and soil environmental quality. Based on the data from 1∶250 000 multi-purpose regional geochemical surveys and 1∶50 000 land quality geochemical assessments, this study predicted the contents of five heavy metal elements in the soil of the study area in 2027 using the single-period incremental model and the input-output flux model individually. The results are as follows. The two models yielded different prediction results but consistent trends that the contents of five heavy metal elements increased to different degrees. Moreover, the single-period incremental model yielded larger increments than the input-output flux model. Among the various input channels of the flux model, Cd and Pb entered the soil mainly through dry and wet atmospheric subsidence, As and Cr entered the soil mainly through fertilization, and Hg entered the soil mainly through irrigation water. Based on the survey and prediction data of soil monitoring sites, the soil environmental quality grade was classified for these sites. The proportion of the sites for priority protection showed a downward trend, indicating that the soil environmental quality decreased year by year.
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