摘要:
文章梳理了岩溶塌陷不确定性预测评价的发展历程和最新进展,总结形成了预测评价的一般思路,认为评价时应立足于评价区的地质背景和实际塌陷情况,遵守"从定性到定量"的原则,按照评价区实际情况,依次完成影响因素分析、评价因子选取、评价模型构建3个步骤,并对如何完成好这3个步骤进行了详细阐述;还针对常用的模糊综合评价模型、灰色模糊综合评判模型、信息量模型、证据权模型、人工神经网络模型、支持向量机模型,在特点、核心步骤、优势、弊端4个方面进行了分类对比分析.文章认为目前国内的岩溶塌陷不确定性预测评价还存在较大滞后,仍有许多问题亟待解决.
Abstract:
This paper reviews the development and the most recent progress of the uncertainty assessment on karst collapse prediction and summarizes the general approach of assessment.It is indicated that the assess-ment must be based on the geological background and actual condition in the evaluation area and the method-ologyof"from qualitative to quantitative"should be followed.The general approach consists of 3 steps,in-cluding analyzing the influencing factors,selecting evaluation components and then constructing the evalua-tion model.This paper also elaborates on how to implement these steps.In this paper,comparative analysis on features,core steps,advantages,disadvantages among fuzzy model,grey-fuzzy model,information mod-el,weights of evidence model,ANN model,SVM model are conducted,which provides a reference for model selection.Further more,it is pointed out that in the current uncertainty assessment on karst collapse predic-tion in China is very behind,which caused many problems in this field.
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