THE TIME SPACE DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND MIGRATION LAW OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN THE INDIAM-EURASIAN PLATE COLLISION DEFORMATION AREA
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摘要: 印度板块与欧亚板块在新生代期间的持续碰撞和挤压过程导致亚洲大陆发生了强烈的弥散式板内变形，并形成了一个以贝加尔湖为顶点，以喜马拉雅带为底边的近似三角形的变形区与强震活动区，即新-藏三角区。基于固体刚塑性变形平面结构，结合滑移线场网络模型，对该区历史强震活动的大范围离散式空间分布特点进行了分析解释。结合1505-1976年以来历史强震空间迁移的实例，归纳了该区历史强震活动与地震应变释放从印度板块边界→新-藏地块→两侧大陆的顺序性及定向性迁移特征，并根据对地震空间迁移规律的认识，进一步探讨了区域未来强震危险性问题。结果显示，从2000-2018年间，印度板块边界和新-藏三角区已多次发生M7.9~9.1大地震，但其东、西两侧的区域大陆地区却异常平静，没发生过7级以上大地震。依照区域强震活动的顺序性迁移特点，推测在未来几到几十年，亚洲大陆东部与中部以及喜马拉雅带东段等区域的大地震危险性较大。Abstract: The continuous collision and compression between the Indian plate and the Eurasian plate during the Cenozoic period led to a strong intraplate deformation of the Asian continent, which resulted in the formation of a triangle deformation area and strong earthquake activity area, namely the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area, with Lake Baikal as the apex and the Himalayan belt as the bottom. Based on the plane structure of solid rigid-plastic deformation and the network model of slip line field, the characteristics of large-scale discrete spatial distribution of historical strong earthquakes in this region are explained. Combined with the examples of the spatial migration of historical strong earthquakes from 1505 to 1976, the sequential and directional migration characteristics of the historical strong earthquakes and the seismic strain release from the boundary of the Indian plate-the Xinjiang-Tibet block-the two sides of the continents are summarized, and potential risks of regional strong earthquakes on the basis of the understanding of the law of seismic spatial migration are discussed. The results show that from 2000 to 2018, the boundary of the Indian plate and the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area have been hit by M7.9~9.1 earthquakes for many times; however, the east and west sides of the continent are the contrary with few earthquakes larger than M7.0. According to the sequential migration characteristics of strong seismic activities in the above seismic regions, it is believed that in the next few to decades, the east and central parts of the Asian continent and the eastern part of the Himalayan belt are at greater risk of major earthquakes.
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表 1 新藏三角区主要地震纵向迁移带及其特征一览表
Table 1. Main seismic longitudinal migration zones and their characteristics in the Xinjiang-Tibet Triangle Area
地震迁移带名称 迁移方式 出现时段/a 持续时间/a 迁移速率km/a 统计震级 帕米尔—贝加尔带 由西南向东北往复式迁移 1669—1761 92 50 M≥7.8 1902—1957 55 喜马拉雅带 东西向往复迁移 1803—1897 94 30 M≥7.8 1905—1950 45 2005—2015 10 南北带 由南向北迁移 1500—1561 61 50 M≥7.0 1713—1742 29 1789—1932 143 1913—1957 44 1988—2008 20 昆仑带 从西向东迁移 1956—2001 45 53 M≥7.0 祁连山带 从东南向西北 1920—1932 12 83 M≥7.5 
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