Earthquake Precursors and Short–impending Prediction of Strong Earthquakes Based on Dynamic Gravity Information
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摘要:
地震预报是当今世界尚未破解的重大科技难题，短临地震预报是地震预报的难点，有效的前兆信息则是短临预报的关键。笔者围绕短临地震预报难题，研制了高精度动态固体潮汐重力仪和大气潮汐重力仪，成功捕获到2010～2023年间的玉树7.1级地震、土耳其7.8级地震等震前几十个小时的动态重力场变化信息。这些信息再现了强震孕育–发生的过程，初步揭示短临阶段“基本稳定→闭锁蓄能→震前平静→能量释放”的强震物理机制，可作为短临地震预报的前兆信息。为实现对短临地震“时−空−强”的准确预报，提出通过动态重力场变化组网观测和分布式前兆信息数据库建设，进一步揭示不同类型地震的动态重力信号响应规律，建立强震发生概率、时间、震中位置及震级预报模型的可行性路径，渴望破解强震短临预报的世界难题。
Abstract:How to accurately predict earthquake is a global scientific problem that needs to be solved at present, especially for short–impending earthquake prediction, which has been the hot topic of long–term attention in the earthquake field, and obtaining effective precursor information is the key to forecast this type of earthquake. Currently, it is difficult to predict short–impending earthquake because of the following reasons: firstly, there is lack of universal precursor information which can reflect the occurrence process of strong earthquake; second, the scientific community’s understanding of the earthquake initiation mechanism is not comprehensive enough; finally, the earthquake prediction theory and its technical methods have not reached the level of application. In this context, we found that the dynamics of gravitational field at ultra–low frequencies may be highly correlated with the occurrence of short–impending earthquake. Therefore, a high–precision dynamic solid tidal gravimeter and an atmospheric tidal gravimeter were developed to capture gravity anomaly, which can detect the gravitational field changes of 1～10 µGal at ultra–low frequencies (1～30 mHz). According to the monitoring, the dynamic gravity field changes of dozens of strong earthquakes from 2010 to 2023 were successfully captured, such as the Yushu earthquake in China (7.1–magnitude), the Turkey earthquake (7.8–magnitude), and Indonesia earthquake (7.4–magnitude), etc. These data have the potential to be used as the precursor information of short–impending earthquake prediction as they can reflect the whole process of earthquake from preparation to occurrence. Furthermore, the physical mechanism of "basic stability→occluded energy storage→pre–shock calm→energy release" for strong earthquake in short–impending stage was further verified. In addition, a plausible approach is proposed to achieve the time–space–intensity prediction for the short–impending earthquake, that means a prediction model of probability, time, location, and magnitude of strong earthquake is constructed based on high–density network observation and distributed precursor information database construction, and finally realize the release of early warning information several hours before the earthquake. This study remains still in the exploration stage, but the in–depth mining of precursor information hidden by the signal of gravity field changes before the earthquake will undoubtedly bring hope to the successful prediction of short–impending strong earthquake.
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表 1 典型强震与动态重力时变异常特征对应关系表
Table 1. Correspondence between typical strong earthquakes and dynamic gravity time–varying anomaly characteristics
序号 地震名称 发震时刻
（y/m/d h∶mm）异常出现时间
（y/m/d h∶mm～h∶mm）异常提前
时间（h）异常幅值（mv）
与持续时间（h）异常
峰值
（mv）地震
震级
（MS）震源
深度
（km）震中–
观测点
距离（km）初值-
峰值
斜率地震
前兆
信息2～4 4～6 6～8 ＞8 1 4·14玉树地震 2010/4/14 7∶49 2010/4/10 2∶00～6∶00 66 3.7 0.3 – – 5.9 7.1 14 1088.25 5.7 明显 2010/4/12 5∶45～10∶15 118 2.5 0.9 0.85 0.25 8.4 14.3 2 4·20雅安地震 2013/4/20 8∶02 2013/4/19 8∶20～16∶00 23.7 4.2 2 1.5 – 9.8 7.0 13 675.90 6.3 明显 3 9·28印尼地震 2018/9/28 18∶02 2018/9/25 7∶00～10∶00 83 2.7 0.3 – – 5.1 7.4 10 3992.93 1.0 明显 4 4·18花莲地震 2019/4/18 13∶01 2019/4/15 16∶00～21∶00 69 3 0.9 0.8 0.3 10.9 6.7 24 1749.46 2.9 明显 5 5·22玛多地震 2021/5/22 2∶04 2021/05/19 11∶00～11∶30 63 – 0.5 – – 5.7 7.4 10 926.09 3.5 明显 6 9·16泸县地震 2021/9/16 4∶33 2021/9/13 20∶20～2021/9/14 02∶30 56 5.83 – – – 3.9 6.0 10 607.25 0.8 较明显 7 6·1芦山地震 2022/6/1 17∶00 2022/05/29 12∶00～17∶00 77 5 – – – 3.9 6.1 17 653.81 0.8 较明显 8 6·10马尔康地震 2022/6/10 0∶03 2022/6/09 18∶00～20∶00 6 1.57 0.25 0.1 0.08 9.2 6.0 10 642.76 4.7 明显 9 9·5泸定地震 2022/9/5 12∶52 2022/9/2 15∶40～17∶30 69 1.8 – – – 2.9 6.8 11 774.72 0.7 较明显 10 2·6土耳其地震 2023/2/6 9∶17 2023/1/23 15∶00～2023/1/24 4∶00 330.2 11.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 8.5 7.8 20 6230 4.7 明显 2023/1/26 22∶00～2023/1/27 12∶00 255.4 13.2 0.5 0.3 – 6.4 7.8 3.5 11 2.23塔吉克斯坦地震 2023/2/23 8∶37 2023/2/18 12∶00～19∶00 116.6 6.3 0.5 0.2 – 7.5 7.2 10 3215 2.7 明显 
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