数据驱动模型评价滑坡易发性的对比研究:以黄河中游流域为例

李光明, 杨玉飞, 唐亚明, 王小浩, 尹春旺, 冯凡, 周永恒. 2025. 数据驱动模型评价滑坡易发性的对比研究:以黄河中游流域为例. 西北地质, 58(2): 51-65. doi: 10.12401/j.nwg.2024064
引用本文: 李光明, 杨玉飞, 唐亚明, 王小浩, 尹春旺, 冯凡, 周永恒. 2025. 数据驱动模型评价滑坡易发性的对比研究:以黄河中游流域为例. 西北地质, 58(2): 51-65. doi: 10.12401/j.nwg.2024064
LI Guangming, YANG Yufei, TANG Yaming, WANG Xiaohao, YIN Chunwang, FENG Fan, ZHOU Yongheng. 2025. Comparison Study in Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Using Data-driven models: A Case Study from the Middle Stream of the Yellow River. Northwestern Geology, 58(2): 51-65. doi: 10.12401/j.nwg.2024064
Citation: LI Guangming, YANG Yufei, TANG Yaming, WANG Xiaohao, YIN Chunwang, FENG Fan, ZHOU Yongheng. 2025. Comparison Study in Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Using Data-driven models: A Case Study from the Middle Stream of the Yellow River. Northwestern Geology, 58(2): 51-65. doi: 10.12401/j.nwg.2024064

数据驱动模型评价滑坡易发性的对比研究:以黄河中游流域为例

  • 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划课题“黄土高原基础设施密集区重大链生灾害信息共享技术平台研发及应用示范”(2023YFC3008405),陕西省科技创新团队项目“基于IT技术的地质灾害风险防控创新团队”(2023-CX-TD-33),天津市规划和自然资源局科研项目“基于无人机遥感航测的天津北部蓟州山区地质灾害调查与稳定性综合评价及防治措施研究”(津规科自筹2022-40),“极端气象灾害条件下蓟州山区滑坡和泥石流风险评估与预警研究”(KJ[2024]25)联合资助。
详细信息
    作者简介: 李光明(1984−),男,高级工程师,博士,主要研究方向为岩土工程。E−mail:liguangming20@126.com
    通讯作者: 唐亚明(1973−),女,正高级工程师,博士,主要研究方向为地质灾害风险评估。E−mail:tangyaming@mail.cgs.gov.cn
  • 中图分类号: P642.22

Comparison Study in Landslide Susceptibility Assessment by Using Data-driven models: A Case Study from the Middle Stream of the Yellow River

More Information
  • 准确的滑坡易发性图有益于管理部门开展土地利用规划和防灾减灾工作,目前已经成为了中国滑坡风险评估与管控的重点研究领域。本研究旨在对比分析不同数据驱动模型在区域滑坡易发性评估中的表现,以黄河中游流域为研究区,通过详细的野外调查结合遥感图像视觉解释,获得了包括684个历史滑坡点的数据库。选取了14个评价因子,利用Pearson相关系数分析了这些因素之间的相关性,应用C5.0决策树算法确定了各因素的重要性。选取了3种典型的数据驱动模型(加权信息量(WIV),支持向量机(SVM)和随机森林(RF))进行了区域滑坡易发性评价,并通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)及其曲线下面积AUC值来验证模型的性能。结果表明,距道路的距离、距河流的距离以及坡度是该地区滑坡发生最重要的贡献因素。大多数历史滑坡都发生在滑坡易发性图中的中等和高易发区内。SVM和RF模型获得的高/极高易发区内的滑坡点均超过总滑坡点的70%。RF模型表现最好,高易发性区占全区面积的21.9%,滑坡数量占全部历史滑坡点的90.5%。AUC精度的比较表明,RF模型的准确性高于其他两种模型:RF的AUC为0.904,而WIV和SVM的AUC分别为0.845和0.847。

  • 加载中
  • 图 1  研究区滑坡空间分布图

    Figure 1. 

    图 2  研究区易发性评价的环境因子

    Figure 2. 

    图 3  训练集预测结果(a)和 测试集预测结果(b)图

    Figure 3. 

    图 4  RF模型性能分析(a)、训练集预测结果(b)和测试集预测结果(c)

    Figure 4. 

    图 5  从 C5.0 决策树模型中获得的因素的重要性

    Figure 5. 

    图 6  从不同模型获得的LSI图:WIV模型(a),SVM模型(b)和RF模型(c)

    Figure 6. 

    图 7  从不同模型获得的滑坡易发性图:WIV模型(a),SVM模型(b)和RF模型(c)

    Figure 7. 

    图 8  历史滑坡各易发性等级统计指标:WIV模型(a),SVM模型(b)和RF模型(c)

    Figure 8. 

    图 9  滑坡易发性评估中三种数据驱动模型的ROC曲线及精度

    Figure 9. 

    表 1  滑坡环境因子 IV 的计算结果

    Table 1.  Calculation of the IV of the landslide environmental factors

    环境因子 Ni/N Si/S 密度比 信息量 权重 加权信息量 排名
    高程 (m) 594~774 0.39 0.39 1.00 0.90 0.073 0.0657 9
    774~901 0.22 0.76 0.29 −0.33 0.02409 61
    901~1028 0.26 0.69 0.38 −0.07 0.00511 40
    10281183 0.11 0.51 0.21 −0.67 0.04891 66
    11831510 0.01 0.08 0.16 −0.92 0.06716 68
    坡度 (°) 0~7 0.14 0.19 0.74 −0.30 0.107 0.0321 62
    7~12 0.20 0.29 0.68 −0.39 0.04173 64
    12~17 0.26 0.28 0.96 −0.05 0.00535 42
    17~23 0.25 0.18 1.39 0.33 0.03531 15
    23~59 0.14 0.06 2.44 0.89 0.09523 4
    坡向 (°) 北(0~22.5) 0.09 0.06 1.56 0.45 0.031 0.01395 22
    东北(22.5~67.5) 0.13 0.12 1.13 0.12 0.00372 28
    东(67.5~112.5) 0.15 0.13 1.14 0.13 0.00403 27
    东南(112.5~157.5) 0.10 0.12 0.79 −0.23 0.00713 44
    南(157.5~202.5) 0.12 0.13 0.94 −0.06 0.00186 34
    西南(202.5~247.5) 0.10 0.15 0.68 −0.38 0.01178 51
    西(247.5~292.5) 0.09 0.14 0.68 −0.39 0.01209 52
    西北(292.5~337.5) 0.14 0.11 1.27 0.24 0.00744 25
    北(337.5-360) 0.08 0.05 1.57 0.45 0.01395 22
    平面曲率 −2.824~−0.345 0.06 0.06 1.00 −0.16 0.031 0.00496 38
    −0.345~−0.097 0.22 0.25 0.88 −0.12 0.00372 36
    −0.097~0.095 0.35 0.34 1.03 0.03 0.00093 31
    0.095~0.343 0.31 0.27 1.13 0.12 0.00372 28
    0.343~4.227 0.07 0.07 1.00 −0.10 0.0031 35
    剖面曲率 −3.908~−0.393 0.05 0.06 0.85 −0.16 0.031 0.00496 38
    −0.393~−0.140 0.16 0.20 0.79 −0.23 0.00713 44
    −0.140~0.082 0.28 0.37 0.77 −0.26 0.00806 47
    0.082~0.367 0.36 0.29 1.23 0.20 0.0062 26
    0.367~4.199 0.15 0.08 1.84 0.61 0.01891 18
    地表粗糙度 1~1.023 0.34 0.48 0.69 −0.37 0.042 0.01554 55
    1.023~1.052 0.33 0.32 1.02 0.02 0.00084 32
    1.052~1.097 0.21 0.15 1.41 0.35 0.0147 21
    1.097~1.199 0.09 0.04 2.23 0.80 0.0336 16
    1.199~1.919 0.03 0.01 3.00 2.15 0.0903 8
    岩性 沙壤土 0.16 0.19 0.88 −0.13 0.052 0.00676 43
    黏土 0.33 0.43 0.77 −0.26 0.01352 53
    红黏土 0.06 0.03 2.00 0.50 0.026 17
    砂岩 0.43 0.31 1.38 0.32 0.01664 19
    石灰岩 0.02 0.04 0.49 −0.71 0.03692 63
    距断层距离 (m) 0~2709.069 0.37 0.28 1.30 0.26 0.049 0.01274 24
    2709.0695727.746 0.29 0.28 1.03 0.03 0.00147 30
    5727.7469056.030 0.16 0.19 0.83 −0.18 0.00882 48
    9056.03013003.531 0.11 0.16 0.72 −0.32 0.01568 56
    13003.53119814.904 0.07 0.09 0.79 −0.23 0.01127 50
    NDWI −0.475~−0.235 0.06 0.10 0.56 −0.58 0.038 0.02204 60
    −0.235~−0.196 0.25 0.37 0.69 −0.38 0.01444 54
    −0.196~−0.151 0.47 0.43 1.09 −0.02 0.00076 33
    −0.151~0.008 0.13 0.06 2.19 1.07 0.04066 11
    0.008~0.240 0.09 0.04 2.27 2.47 0.09386 5
    NDVI −0.198~0.008 0.02 0.01 2.00 1.13 0.038 0.04294 10
    0.008~0.135 0.31 0.20 1.53 0.43 0.01634 20
    0.135~0.180 0.35 0.40 0.88 −0.13 0.00494 37
    0.180~0.235 0.26 0.30 0.87 −0.14 0.00532 41
    0.235~0.536 0.05 0.09 0.57 −0.57 0.02166 59
    距河流距离 (m) 0~100 0.35 0.15 2.33 0.85 0.136 0.1156 3
    100~200 0.16 0.12 1.32 0.28 0.03808 14
    200~300 0.11 0.13 0.86 −0.15 0.0204 58
    300~500 0.14 0.21 0.66 −0.41 0.05576 67
    500~1776.851 0.23 0.38 0.60 −0.51 0.06936 69
    距道路距离 (m) 0~100 0.72 0.16 4.56 1.52 0.159 0.24168 1
    100~200 0.12 0.12 0.95 −0.05 0.00795 46
    200~300 0.05 0.12 0.41 −0.90 0.1431 71
    300~500 0.06 0.18 0.34 −1.07 0.17013 72
    500~2835.437 0.05 0.42 0.12 −2.11 0.33549 74
    土地利用 水面 0.03 0.02 1.65 0.50 0.08 0.04 12
    村庄 0.17 0.05 3.22 1.17 0.0936 6
    林地 0.24 0.28 0.87 −0.14 0.0112 49
    草地 0.28 0.48 0.58 −0.54 0.0432 65
    农田 0.29 0.17 1.66 0.50 0.04 12
    降雨 (mm) <400 0.10 0.22 0.47 −1.45 0.132 0.1914 73
    400~425 0.22 0.11 1.99 0.69 0.09108 7
    425~450 0.12 0.13 0.87 −0.14 0.01848 57
    450~475 0.10 0.22 0.44 −0.82 0.10824 70
    >475 0.46 0.33 1.40 1.57 0.20724 2
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出版历程
收稿日期:  2022-09-28
修回日期:  2024-05-27
刊出日期:  2025-04-20

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