RISK ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDE DISASTERS IN THE UPPER REACHES OF YAJIANG COUNTY, SICHUAN PROVINCE
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摘要:
雅江县位于四川省西部雅砻江中游河段，以中山-高山峡谷地貌为主，地质灾害频发.为保障人民生命财产安全，基于逻辑回归与确定性系数叠加分析，进行雅江县上游河段滑坡灾害危险性评价.结果表明：1）雅江县上游河段滑坡极易发生在海拔2 500~3 000 m、拔河高度600~900 m、坡度30~45°、距离河流水系0~200 m范围较硬岩夹较软岩类地带；2）雅江县上游河段高危险区、极高危险区面积占总面积的46.75%，发生滑坡占滑坡总数的65.91%，说明该区域内滑坡分布密集，危害程度相对较高，与野外实际调查结果相符；3）雅江县上游河段呷拉镇一带多属极高危险区、高危险区，瓦多乡一带多属中等危险区，木绒乡、普巴绒乡一带多属低危险区、极低危险区；4）通过查验点及ROC曲线对评价结果验证，该评价结果有较高的准确性，能够作为研究区防灾减灾与河谷开发利用的合理方案依据.
Abstract:Yajiang County, located in the middle reaches of Yalong River in western Sichuan Province, is dominated by the landform of middle mountain-alpine valley, with frequent geological disasters. The risk assessment of landslide disasters in the upper reaches of Yajiang County is carried out on the basis of overlay analysis of logistic regression (LR) and certainty factor (CF) to ensure people's life and property security. The results show that the landslides are prone to occur in the hard rock interbedded with soft rock zone, with an altitude of 2 500-3 000 m, relative height above river of 600-900 m, gradient of 30-45° and distance of 0-200 m from river system. The high and very high risk areas in the upper reaches of Yajiang County account for 46.75% of the total area, and 65.91% of the total landslide occurrences, indicating the dense distribution of landslides and high damage degree, which is consistent with the field survey results. The Xiala Town mostly belongs to very high and high risk area, Waduo Township mostly medium risk area, and Murong Township and Pubarong Township mostly low and very low risk area. The assessment results have high accuracy through verification of inspection points and ROC curve, and thus can serve as a reasonable plan basis for disaster prevention and mitigation, river development and utilization in the study area.
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表 1 评价指标归一化值计算表
Table 1. Calculation results for normalized value of evaluation indexes
评价指标 指标分级 滑坡面积/km2 评价指标面积/km2 Rij Xij 坡度/（°） 0~15 6.13 194.12 0.032 0.199 15~30 21.87 597.43 0.037 0.231 30~45 37.54 765.32 0.049 0.309 45~60 8.36 201.96 0.041 0.261 60~75 0.00 5.03 0.000 0.000 坡向 北（0~22.5°，337.5~360°） 11.16 200.18 0.056 0.162 北东（22.5~67.5°） 6.01 194.32 0.031 0.090 东（67.5~112.5°） 3.77 213.46 0.018 0.051 南东（112.5~157.5°） 5.03 247.63 0.020 0.059 南（157.5~202.5°） 11.93 218.62 0.055 0.159 南西（202.5~247.5°） 9.34 211.34 0.044 0.128 西（247.5~292.5°） 16.05 210.55 0.076 0.221 北西（292.5~337.5°） 11.95 267.76 0.045 0.130 拔河高度/m 0~300 26.50 249.31 0.106 0.325 300~600 19.26 433.68 0.044 0.136 600~900 23.52 452.01 0.052 0.159 900~1200 63.98 531.78 0.120 0.368 1200~1800 0.37 97.08 0.004 0.012 工程地质岩组 较软岩类 3.96 190.03 0.021 0.188 较软岩夹较硬岩类 16.71 774.37 0.022 0.195 较硬岩夹较软岩类 53.23 778.79 0.068 0.617 坚硬岩类 0.00 20.67 0.000 0.000 断裂带距离/m 0~1000 2.02 45.34 0.045 0.199 1000~2000 4.20 49.76 0.084 0.377 2000~3000 0.48 53.30 0.009 0.040 3000~4000 2.60 58.52 0.044 0.198 >4000 64.60 1556.94 0.041 0.185 岸坡结构 顺向坡 24.85 292.31 0.085 0.483 斜向坡 27.67 618.31 0.045 0.254 横向坡 16.55 579.12 0.029 0.162 逆向坡 4.83 274.12 0.018 0.100 河流水系/m 0~200 48.14 382.31 0.126 0.630 200~400 16.54 338.62 0.049 0.245 400~600 6.27 298.31 0.021 0.105 >600 2.95 744.62 0.004 0.020 年平均降雨量/mm 610 0.16 192.92 0.001 0.008 630 7.25 230.95 0.031 0.303 760 3.35 277.58 0.012 0.116 780 63.14 1062.23 0.059 0.573 
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表 2 回归系数计算结果
Table 2. Calculation results of regression coefficient
坡度 坡向 拔河高度 工程地质岩组 断裂带 岸坡结构 河流水系 降雨 常数 1.809 1.116 2.015 2.684 6.884 2.663 2.362 3.047 -5.894
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表 3 各个评价指标的确定性系数权值
Table 3. Certainty factor weights of evaluation indexes
评价指标 指标分级 CF Wci Pij 确定性权排名 评价指标 指标分级 CF Wci Pij 确定性权排名 坡度/（°） 0~15 0.4375 0.0833 0.0365 25 工程地质岩组 较软岩类 0.4010 0.2003 0.0803 9 15~30 0.5382 0.0833 0.0449 16 较软岩夹较硬岩类 0.0760 0.2003 0.0152 31 30~45 0.6887 0.0833 0.0574 13 较硬岩夹较软岩类 0.8994 0.2003 0.1802 1 45~60 0.8172 0.0833 0.0681 12 坚硬岩类 -1.0000 0.2003 -0.2003 39 断层缓冲区/m 0~1000 -0.5737 0.1789 -0.1027 38 60~75 -1.0000 0.0833 -0.0833 35 1000~2000 0.2003 0.1789 0.0358 26 坡向 北（0~22.5°，337.5~360°） 0.7444 0.0587 0.0437 18 2000~3000 -0.4910 0.1789 -0.0879 36 北东（22.5~67.5°） 0.7049 0.0587 0.0414 19 3000~4000 0.0000 0.1789 0.0000 33 东（67.5~112.5°） 0.5461 0.0587 0.0320 28 >4000 0.7917 0.1789 0.1417 2 岸坡结构 顺向坡 0.7500 0.1308 0.0981 6 南东（112.5~157.5°） 0.4995 0.0587 0.0293 29 逆向坡 0.3087 0.1308 0.0404 20 南（157.5~202.5°） 0.6712 0.0587 0.0394 21 横向坡 0.7672 0.1308 0.1003 5 南西（202.5~247.5°） 0.1570 0.0587 0.0092 32 斜向坡 0.5812 0.1308 0.0760 10 西（247.5~292.5°） 0.5818 0.0587 0.0341 27 水系缓冲区/m 0~200 0.7617 0.0506 0.0385 23 北西（292.5~337.5°） 0.7451 0.0587 0.0437 17 200~400 0.7781 0.0506 0.0394 22 拔河高度/m 0~300 0.9428 0.1308 0.1233 3 400~600 0.7552 0.0506 0.0382 24 300~600 0.4299 0.1308 0.0562 14 >600 -0.0988 0.0506 -0.0050 34 年平均降雨量/mm 610 0.1111 0.0506 -0.0898 37 600~900 0.5382 0.1308 0.0704 11 630 0.4946 0.1111 0.0550 15 900~1200 0.7387 0.1308 0.0966 7 760 0.2362 0.1111 0.0262 30 1200~1800 0.8861 0.1308 0.1159 4 780 0.8525 0.1111 0.0947 8
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表 4 查验点分布统计表
Table 4. Risk zoning and number of landslide disaster inspection points
危险性等级 滑坡数量/个 极低危险区 0 低危险区 0 中等危险区 4 高危险区 6 极高危险区 4
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表 5 滑坡灾害危险性评价结果统计表
Table 5. Risk evaluation results of landslide disaster
危险性分区 面积/km2 滑坡面积/km2 滑坡面密度/% 占滑坡总数比例/% 极高危险区 303.64 23.59 7.77 27.19 高危险区 520.94 30.49 5.85 37.72 中等危险区 361.33 14.06 3.89 20.18 低危险区 376.58 5.82 1.55 13.16 极低危险区 201.34 0.24 0.12 1.75
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