COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF WATER RESOURCES CARRYING CAPACITY IN ANKANG CITY BASED ON GAME THEORY COMBINATION WEIGHTING-TOPSIS MODEL
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摘要:
采用陕西省安康市2011-2020年统计资料, 基于水资源-社会-经济-生态环境复合系统构建水资源承载力评价指标体系; 以博弈论组合赋权法确定指标权重, 综合运用TOPSIS法和障碍度模型对安康市水资源承载力进行评价.结果表明: 2011-2020年安康市水资源承载力变化趋势呈"W"型, 总体变化不大, 水资源仍有较大开发利用空间; 水资源和生态环境子系统承载力总体呈下降趋势, 社会和经济子系统承载力呈上升趋势; 制约安康市水资源承载力水平的主要是生态环境子系统和经济子系统, 氨氮排放量、化学需氧量排放量、生态环境用水率、城市污水日处理能力和万元工业增加值用水量是主要的障碍因子.
Abstract:Adopting the statistical data of Ankang City in Shaanxi Province during 2011-2020, the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity is constructed on the basis of the composite system of water resources-society-economy-ecological environment. The index weights are determined by the game theory combination weighting method, and the TOPSIS method and obstacle degree model are used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in the area. The results reveal that the variation trend of water resources carrying capacity during 2011-2020 shows a "W" shape, with little overall change, and there is still much room for development and utilization of water resources. The carrying capacity of water resources and eco-environment subsystems shows a downward trend, while that of society and economy subsystems is on the rise. The main factors restricting the carrying capacity of water resources are eco-environment and economy subsystems. The main obstacle factors include ammonia nitrogen emission, chemical oxygen demand(COD) discharge, water consumption rate of eco-environment, daily treatment capacity of urban sewage and water consumption by unit industrial added value.
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表 1 水资源承载力综合评价指标体系
Table 1. Comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity
目标层 准则层 指标层 计算方法 类别 水资源承载力A 水资源子系统B1 产水模数C1/(104 m3/km2) 水资源总量/区域总面积 正 供水模数C2/(104 m3/km2) 供水量/区域总面积 负 人均水资源量C3/(m3/人) 水资源总量/常住人口 正 人均水资源利用量C4/(m3/人) 用水量/常住人口 负 地表水资源占比C5/% 地表水资源量/水资源总量 正 水资源开发利用率C6/% 供水量/水资源总量 负 社会子系统B2 人口密度C7/(人/km2) 常住总人口/区域总面积 负 人口自然增长率C8/‰ 人口自然增长量/年平均总人数 负 城镇化率C9/% 城镇人口数/总人口数 正 城镇人均日生活用水量C10/L 城镇日生活用水量/城镇总人口 负 经济子系统B3 人均GDP C11/元 地区GDP/常住人口 正 第三产业比重C12/% 第三产业GDP/GDP总量 正 万元GDP用水量C13/(m3/万元) 用水总量/GDP总量 负 万元工业增加值用水量C14/(m3/万元) 工业用水总量/工业总增加值 负 万元农业增加值用水量C15/(m3/万元) 农业用水总量/农业总增加值 负 农田灌溉亩均用水量C16/(m3/亩) 统计数据 负 生态环境子系统B4 生态环境用水率C17/% 生态环境用水量/用水总量 负 森林覆盖率C18/% 森林面积/区域总面积 正 城市绿化覆盖率C19/% 城市绿化面积/城市总面积 正 水土流失治理面积C20/104 hm2 统计数据 正 化学需氧量排放量C21/t 统计数据 负 氨氮排放量C22/t 统计数据 负 单位耕地施肥量C23/(kg/亩) 农用化肥折纯量/耕地面积 负 污水排放量C24/104 t 统计数据 负 城市污水日处理能力C25/(104 t/d) 统计数据 正 城市污水处理率C26/% 污水处理量/污水排放总量 正 
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表 2 博弈论组合赋权的指标权重分配结果
Table 2. Index weight distribution results of game theory combination weighting
指标 w1 w2 w 指标 w1 w2 w C1 0.0360 0.0855 0.0672 C14 0.0150 0.1051 0.0719 C2 0.0320 0.0054 0.0152 C15 0.0220 0.0386 0.0325 C3 0.0350 0.0834 0.0656 C16 0.0500 0.0419 0.0449 C4 0.0250 0.0077 0.0141 C17 0.0280 0.0665 0.0523 C5 0.0280 0.0002 0.0105 C18 0.0650 0.0075 0.0287 C6 0.0240 0.0788 0.0586 C19 0.0500 0.0149 0.0279 C7 0.0430 0.0026 0.0175 C20 0.0470 0.0150 0.0268 C8 0.0390 0.0266 0.0312 C21 0.0610 0.0625 0.0619 C9 0.0280 0.0156 0.0202 C22 0.0670 0.0604 0.0629 C10 0.0490 0.0166 0.0285 C23 0.0930 0.0142 0.0433 C11 0.0310 0.0518 0.0441 C24 0.0220 0.0595 0.0456 C12 0.0440 0.0101 0.0226 C25 0.0260 0.0642 0.0501 C13 0.0190 0.0572 0.0431 C26 0.0210 0.0080 0.0128
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表 3 安康市2011-2020年水资源承载力评价结果
Table 3. Evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity in Ankang City during 2011-2020
年份 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 均值 相关系数 G综合 0.4793 0.3718 0.3292 0.3569 0.4163 0.4514 0.6133 0.5291 0.6265 0.4740 0.4648 1.0000 G水资源 0.9934 0.3727 0.0343 0.1640 0.3752 0.1662 0.8781 0.2346 0.7697 0.4663 0.4454 0.6989 G社会 0.3118 0.2849 0.2818 0.4211 0.5525 0.3005 0.3006 0.5917 0.7139 0.6952 0.4454 0.4203 G经济 0.2635 0.3147 0.3775 0.3674 0.5375 0.5956 0.6717 0.7429 0.7236 0.6051 0.5199 0.7409 G生态环境 0.4956 0.4356 0.4150 0.4159 0.3322 0.4328 0.4816 0.4608 0.5156 0.3760 0.4361 0.6201
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表 4 2011-2020年安康市水资源承载力主要障碍因子及障碍度
Table 4. Main obstacle factors and obstacle degrees of water resources carrying capacity in Ankang City during 2011-2020
年份 障碍因子及障碍度排序 累积障碍度 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2011 C22 10.10 C21 9.71 C25 8.83 C14 8.02 C23 5.50 C24 4.76 C11 4.68 C13 4.54 C17 4.51 C1 4.12 64.77 2012 C22 9.70 C21 9.30 C25 7.92 C14 7.05 C23 5.72 C17 5.49 C24 5.23 C1 5.12 C3 5.03 C6 4.40 64.97 2013 C22 9.62 C21 9.16 C25 7.31 C14 6.65 C17 5.99 C1 5.72 C23 5.62 C3 5.60 C24 5.30 C6 4.95 65.91 2014 C22 9.62 C21 9.20 C25 6.77 C17 6.47 C14 6.44 C23 5.67 C1 5.48 C3 5.36 C24 5.36 C6 4.74 65.11 2015 C22 9.65 C21 9.25 C17 7.61 C25 6.86 C23 5.78 C24 5.73 C14 5.68 C1 5.17 C3 5.06 C6 4.46 65.24 2016 C17 8.15 C22 7.78 C21 7.13 C25 7.00 C24 6.96 C23 5.89 C1 5.67 C14 5.62 C3 5.53 C6 4.91 64.65 2017 C17 8.86 C22 7.62 C24 7.49 C21 7.19 C25 6.88 C23 6.27 C14 5.67 C1 4.60 C3 4.49 C16 4.32 63.38 2018 C17 8.80 C21 7.58 C22 7.41 C24 7.29 C25 6.48 C23 6.08 C1 5.70 C3 5.55 C14 5.10 C6 5.00 64.99 2019 C17 9.49 C24 7.74 C21 7.71 C22 7.63 C23 6.23 C14 5.86 C25 5.25 C1 4.86 C3 4.69 C16 4.40 63.87 2020 C17 9.03 C21 9.00 C22 7.77 C24 7.65 C14 6.37 C25 6.09 C23 5.80 C1 5.13 C3 4.93 C6 4.57 66.33 单位: %.
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