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摘要: 我国西南岩溶山区地质环境脆弱，人类工程活动强烈，群死群伤的灾难性滑坡频发，造成严重的人员与财产损失。文章概述了西南岩溶山区大型崩滑灾害基本特征和防灾减灾的难点，提出了目前研究中亟待解决的关键科学技术问题，包括岩溶地质结构与管道流的相互孕灾机理、地下采动下大型崩滑灾害形成机制、灾害高位远程动力成灾模式、灾害早期识别与空间预测。针对这些问题，文章提出如下研究思路：通过多学科联合，重点研究岩溶山区大型崩滑灾害链的孕育发生规律与成灾模式，揭示岩溶管道-裂隙-孔隙地下水动力作用及孕灾过程和地下采动、库水波动等工程扰动环境下山体劣化损伤效应，构建岩溶崩滑灾害高速远程动力致灾机制与风险预测方法，形成早期识别、监测预警与综合防控技术及示范，为我国岩溶山区城镇化建设、重大工程安全运营提供科技支撑。Abstract: Due to the fragile geological environment and strong human engineering activities, catastrophic rock avalanches in the karst mountain areas in southwest China have frequently occurred, causing serious personnel and property losses. This article summarizes the characteristics of rock avalanches and the difficult problems of landslides prevention and mitigation, and proposes the key scientific problems that need to be solved urgently in the current research, including the interaction mechanism between geological structures and karst pipeline flows, the formation mechanism of rock avalanches related to the underground mining, the geomechanical conditions and dynamic processes of rapid and long run-out rock avalanches, and early identification and spatial prediction technology. In response to these problems, this article expounds the following research ideas. Through multidisciplinary integration, we will focus on the research of the development and failure modes of rock avalanches in karst mountain areas, reveal the role of groundwater in karst pipelines-fissures-pores and the effect of rock damage due to underground mining and reservoir water fluctuations. The focus of this study is on the mechanism of rapid and long run-out rock avalanches and risk prediction methods. Early identification, monitoring, early warning, and comprehensive prevention and control technologies for rock avalanches are established. This study may provide support to the urbanization construction and the safe operation of major projects in karst mountainous areas in China.
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