Theory and methodology for evaluation of carrying capacity of regional groundwater resources in China
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摘要: 开展地下水资源承载能力评价，对于认识区域地下水资源禀赋和开发利用的空间分布状况、建立国家-省级资源环境承载能力监测预警机制、支撑面向国土空间规划的“双评价”研究等具有重要意义。目前，地下水资源承载能力的评价理论与方法仍处于探索之中，在实际工作中缺乏统一的依据。本文基于自然-社会经济系统的承载协调理论，定义了地下水资源承载能力的内涵。从地下水资源的数量、质量、生态属性出发，分别建立了承载本底、承载状态两个层次的区域地下水资源承载能力评价指标体系，确定了评价指标的分级标准和评价流程。以地下水可开采资源模数、地下水开采程度作为基础指标，来初步判断承载本底、承载状态等级，而后利用地下水背景质量等级对承载本底初步结果进行修正，根据区域实际情况选取地下水污染程度、地面沉降程度、海水入侵程度、土壤盐渍化程度等一项或多项指标作为承载状态的修正指标，对承载状态初步结果进行修正；综合承载本底、承载状态评价结果，确定区域地下水资源承载能力。应用此方法研究了京津冀地区的地下水资源承载能力，结果发现京津冀地区地下水资源承载能力水平整体偏弱，202个县级行政区中承载能力强的有18个，较强的有72个，中等的有19个，较弱的有36个，弱的有57个。承载能力强、较强的县级行政区几乎全部位于冀南丘陵山区、冀中山前冲积平原；承载能力弱、较弱的县级行政区主要分布在冀北山地丘陵区、冀东滨海冲积海积平原。京津冀地区地下水资源承载能力研究实例表明该方法具备可操作性，评价结果合理。Abstract: It is of great significance to evaluate the carrying capacity of groundwater resources for understanding the basic situation of regional groundwater resource availability and utilization, establishing a national and provincial level monitoring and warning mechanism for resources and environment carrying capacity, and supporting the research oriented to national spatial planning. The current theory and method for evaluation of carrying capacity of groundwater resources are still in an exploratory status, and there is no unified basis in practice. In this paper, the carrying capacity of groundwater resources is defined based on carrying coordination theory between natural resources system and socioeconomic system. After the analyses of quantity, quality and ecologial feature of groundwater resources in China, an evaluation index system is established respectively from the background and status of carrying capacity. Thus, an index grading method and evaluation process of carrying capacity of groundwater resources is put forward. This index system takes the module of exploitable groundwater resources and degree of groundwater exploitation as the basic indexes. The background and status of carrying capacity are firstly judged by the class of basic indexes. Secondly, level of groundwater background quality is used to modify the background of carrying capacity. As revising indexes of the status, degree of groundwater pollution, land subsidence, salinization and seawater intrusion should be used according to actual condition and the modified status of carrying capacity. Integrated carrying capacity of groundwater resources is determined by the above mentioned background and status. This method is used to evaluate the carrying capacity of groundwater resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the results show that the integrated carrying capacity is relatively weak in this region. The number of counties with strong, medium-strong, medium, medium-weak, and weak integrated carrying capacity are 18, 72, 19, 36, and 57, respectively. Counties with strong and medium-strong integrated carrying capacity are mainly located in the hilly and mountain areas of the southern part and piedmont alluvial plain of the central part. Counties with medium-weak and weak integrated carrying capacity are mainly located in hilly and mountain areas of the northern part and coastal alluvial plain of the eastern area. This case study of evaluation of carrying capacity of groundwater resources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows that the evaluation method is feasible, and the result is reasonable.
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