Development characteristics and river blocking outburst analysis of Shadong landslide in the upper reaches of Jinsha River
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摘要:
沙东滑坡位于金沙江结合带内，复活变形迹象明显，极可能形成滑坡-堵江-洪水灾害链，严重威胁沿线重大工程建设、交通设施以及人民生命财产安全。采用多源遥感动态监测、工程地质调查、数值模拟等方法，分析滑坡的复活变形特征，探讨滑坡堵江溃决的危险性。结果表明：沙东滑坡为巨型滑坡，体积约
23045 ×104 m3，目前处于蠕滑变形阶段，2018—2023年存在持续变形，滑坡变形区主要集中在斜坡前缘，下游侧变形比上游侧强烈。沙东滑坡沿基覆界面滑动，表现为牵引式渐进破坏，在稳定性分析的基础上，建立了3种潜在失稳模式：①天然工况下，C3次级滑体前缘失稳，滑坡持续过程约35 s，滑体最大速度达30 m/s，堵江堰塞坝高度约90 m，堰塞湖库容约1.62×108 m3，堰塞坝溃决后拉哇电站坝址处最大洪水流量约3535 m3/s，最大洪峰高度约14 m；②暴雨工况下，Ⅱ-2区失稳，堵江堰塞坝高度约133 m，堰塞湖库容约4.10×108 m3，堰塞坝溃决后拉哇电站坝址处最大洪水流量约11315 m3/s，最大洪峰高度约31 m；③暴雨+地震工况下，Ⅱ-1、Ⅱ-2区同时失稳，堵江堰塞坝高度约153 m，堰塞湖库容约5.66×108 m3，堰塞坝溃决后拉哇电站坝址处最大洪水流量约19960 m3/s，最大洪峰高度约45 m。沙东滑坡堵江风险高、致灾性强，建议采用天-空-地-内一体化的手段进行持续监测，研究滑坡的预警阈值，精准管控重大地质灾害风险。Abstract:The Shadong landslide, located in the Jinsha suture belt, exhibits significant signs of deformation. It is a high risk of developing into a disaster chain of landslide, river blockage, and flood, posing a serious threat to major engineering construction, transportation facilities, and people's lives and property. In this study, multi-source remote sensing dynamic monitoring, engineering geological survey, and numerical simulation were used to analyze the deformation characteristics and explore the risk of river blocking outburst of the Shadong landslide. The results show that the Shadong landslide is a giant landslide with a volume of approximately
23045 ×104 m3. The landslide is currently in the stage of creep deformation, with continuous deformation from 2018 to 2023. The reactivation deformation area of the landslide is mainly concentrated at the front edge of the slope, and the deformation on the downstream side is stronger than that on the upstream side. The Shadong landslide slides along the bedrock cover interface, exhibiting a traction type progressive failure. Based on stability analysis, three potential instability modes have been established. Under natural conditions, the leading edge of the secondary landslide C3 is unstable, with the landslide event lasting around 35 seconds. The maximum speed of the landslide reaches 30 m/s. The height of the barrier dam is about 90 m, and the barrier lake capacity is about 1.62×108 m3, with a maximum flood flow of approximately3535 m3/s and a flood peak height of approximately 14 m at the dam site of the Lava Power Station after the barrier dam failure. Under storm conditions, instability occurs in zone II-2, forming a 133-meter-high barrier dam with a lake capacity of approximately 4.10×108 m3. The maximum flood flow could reach11315 m3/s, with a maximum flood peak height of approximately 31 m at the Lava Power Station. In the event of both storm and earthquake conditions, II-1 and II-2 zone are unstable at the same time, resulting in the height of the barrier dam of approximately 153 m, with a barrier lake capacity of approximately 5.66×108 m3. The maximum flood flow is approximately19960 m3/s, with a maximum flood peak height of approximately 45m at the dam site of the Lava Power Station after the barrier dam failure. Given the high risk of river blockage and the catastrophic potential of the Shadong landslide, continuous monitoring through integrated sky, air, ground, and interior methods is recommended. Additionally, further study is needed to establish early warning thresholds and accurately manage the risk of major geological disasters. -
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表 1 沙东滑坡遥感数据源信息表
Table 1. Remote sensing data source of Shadong landslide
序号 成像时间 数据源 分辨率/处理方法 1 2019-06-30 无人机航测 0.2 m 2 2020-06-15 无人机航测 0.2 m 3 2023-02-20 无人机航测 0.2 m 4 2018-11-08 —
2022-04-22Sentinel-1A
（升轨、C波段）Stacking-InSAR、
SBAS-InSAR
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表 2 沙东滑坡长度大于100 m裂缝信息
Table 2. Cracks information of Shadong landslide with a length of more than 100 m
编号 影像特征 分布区域 长度/m 走向/（°） 下挫/cm 张开度/cm 类型 成像时间 LF001 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-5区 195 139 3～10 5～10 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF003 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-5区 101 131 5～10 5～10 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF006 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-5区 122 4 5～10 5～10 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF011 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 183 158 50～70 30～40 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF016 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 146 122 15～20 15～25 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF020 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 178 92 10～20 20～25 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF021 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 172 60 10～20 20～25 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF022 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 300 69 50～70 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF023 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 159 106 50～70 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF024 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 181 98 20～30 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF025 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 123 104 20～30 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF032 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 158 163 30～40 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF036 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 145 157 30～40 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF037 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 122 118 20～30 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF038 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 166 92 20～30 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF041 灰色，呈马蹄形展布 Ⅱ-2区 103 126 50～70 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF043 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 164 6 50～70 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF058 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-4区 153 84 20～30 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF063 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 174 79 50～60 20～40 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF064 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 190 71 50～60 20～40 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF066 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 104 115 30～40 20～30 拉张裂缝 2019-06-30 LF106 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 130 9 30～40 20～30 剪切裂缝 2020-06-15 LF107 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 107 17 30～40 20～30 剪切裂缝 2020-06-15 LF108 灰色，呈弧形展布 Ⅱ-2区 106 118 20～30 20～30 拉张裂缝 2020-06-15
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表 3 沙东滑坡不同失稳模式下堰塞湖规模
Table 3. Barrier lake scales under different instability modes of Shadong landslide
失稳组合
模式失稳块体 堵江方量
/（104 m3）堵江高度
/m堰塞湖最高
水位高程/m堰塞湖库容
/（108 m3）① C3前缘 720 90 2750 1.62 ② Ⅱ-2区 3300 133 2793 4.10 ③ Ⅱ-1区 6800 153 2813 5.66 Ⅱ-2区
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