Geological safety risk assessment of underground space utilization in Xiongan New Area
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摘要:
地质环境是地下空间的承载体，明显制约地下空间开发利用。识别地下空间利用的地质安全风险及其主要影响要素可为地下空间合理规划、地下空间设施安全保障提供科学依据。以雄安新区为例，从空间、资源、环境、灾害 4 个层面，分析了不同类型地质安全风险隐患，遴选含水砂层厚度、土体承载力特征值、土体压缩模量、地面高程、地下水位埋深、地面沉降速率和砂土液化指数等定量指标，构建指标体系进行地质安全风险评价。针对现有评价方法在客观赋权方面存在的不足，在考虑数据相关性、离散性和相对性（冲突性）的基础上，引入基于指标相关性的指标权重确定法（criteria importance through intercriteria correlation，CRITIC），提出了CRITIC-Entropy组合确权法，使得赋权更为科学与合理。研究结果表明，雄安新区地下空间地质安全风险呈现出深部层位小于浅部层位的特征，且Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级风险区主要位于白洋淀及周边、南张镇东和大营镇东等区域，浅层（0～15 m）、次浅层（15～30 m）、次深层（30～50 m）、深层（50～100 m）地下空间Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级风险区累计面积占比分别为54.49%、42.51%、41.06%和42.18%。不同层位地下空间地质安全风险的主要影响要素有所差异，总体来说，土体压缩模量、土体承载力特征值、地面高程和地下水位埋深影响权重较高。同时，需要关注地面沉降、地下水位动态演变和不同施工方式引起的风险变化。成果可为雄安新区地下空间利用规划科学优化和防灾减灾提供地学依据，也可为其他地区相关研究提供借鉴。
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关键词:
- 地下空间 /
- 地质安全风险 /
- CRITIC-Entropy组合确权 /
- 雄安新区
Abstract:The utilization of underground space is related to geological environment. Identifying the geological safety risk and their influencing factors of underground space utilization can provide scientific basis for underground space management and the safety of underground space facilities. Previous studies have utilized various methods including analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy mathematics, and neural network to analyze the geological environment conditions of urban underground space. However, their methods have limitations in terms of objective weighting. To address this, considering the data correlation, discreteness, and relativity (conflict), an improved analytic hierarchy process incorporating the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) method was introduced. The CRITIC-Entropy combination weighting method, which made the weights more scientific and reasonable, was proposed to evaluate the geological safety risk of underground space utilization. In Xiongan New Area, the geological safety risks related to stress variation, bearing capacity, submergence and anti-floating, soil pressure change, and sand liquefaction were analyzed. The evaluation focused on four aspects: space, resources, environment, and disaster. Quantitative indicators, such as aquifer thickness, characteristic value of soil bearing capacity, compression modulus of soil, ground elevation, buried depth of groundwater level, land subsidence rate, and sand liquefaction index were selected to construct the geological safety risk evaluation index system for shallow (0−15 m), sub-shallow (15−30 m), sub-deep (30−50 m), and deep (50−100 m) underground spaces. The study reveals that the geological safety risk of underground space in the study area follows a pattern that deep layers have a lower risk compared to shallow layers. The areas with Ⅰ and Ⅱ risk grades are predominantly located at Baiyangdian and its surrounding areas, east of Nanzhang town, and east of Daying town. The cumulative acreage of Ⅰ and Ⅱ risk grades in shallow, sub-shallow, sub-deep, and deep underground space accounts for 54.49%, 42.51%, 41.06%, and 42.18%, respectively. Additionally, the dominant factors influencing the geological safety risk vary across different layers of underground space, while compression modulus of soil, characteristic value of soil bearing capacity, ground elevation, and buried depth of groundwater level show high weights. It is also important to consider the risk changes caused by the potential changes of land subsidence rate, buried depth of groundwater level, and different excavation ways in the future research. These findings provide a geological foundation for the scientific optimization of underground space utilization and disaster prevention and mitigation in Xiongan New Area and other similar areas.
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表 1 土体承载力特征值平面分布特征
Table 1. Partition of characteristic value to soils bearing capacity
深度/m 特征 0～5 80<f≤100 100<f≤130 f >130 同口镇南、龙华镇东北、赵北口镇周边、
昝岗镇西、苟各庄镇—鄚州镇镇沿线以南等地区雄安新区
其他地区5～10 100<f≤130 130<f≤160 f >160 双堂乡—米家务镇北—北沙口乡北—晾马台镇西—朱各庄镇
南—平王乡南—大王镇西北—小里镇东—老河头镇北一
线以南、容城县城北、大河镇西北等地区雄安新区
其他地区容城县城西—南张镇北一带 10～15 110<f≤130 130<f≤170 f >170 同口镇南、刘李庄镇—端村镇一线周边、鄚州镇南、
赵北口镇西北、苟各庄镇西北、张岗乡南等地区雄安新区
其他地区寨里乡西北、小里镇南、容城县城
西—南张镇西—小里镇东北一带15～30 130<f≤160 160<f≤200 f >200 安州镇西、寨里乡西南、北沙口乡北—大营镇东—
雄县县城西—龙湾镇南—圈头乡西北—端村镇—
同口镇南一线东南部大部分地区雄安新区
其他地区容城县城西北—南张镇—小里镇
西一带、容城县城东南、安新县
城西、大河镇—晾马台镇一带30～50 130<f≤160 160<f≤200 f >200 芦庄乡、老河头镇东北、苟各庄镇西、双堂乡西—
龙湾镇北—晾马台镇—八于乡—容城县城东—
三台镇—安县县城东—平王乡南一带雄安新区
其他地区50～100 130<f≤160 160<f≤200 f >200 寨里乡北、龙湾镇东南、苟各庄镇南、
圈头乡—鄚州镇西一带雄安新区
其他地区注：表中f为土体承载力特征值；空白为无此项。 
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表 2 土体压缩模量平面分布特征
Table 2. Partition of soils compression modulus
深度/m 特征 E≤4 4<E≤11 11<E≤15 E >15 0～5 南张镇西北
局部地区寨里乡南—安州镇西北—老河头镇北一带 雄安新区
其他地区贾光乡西部分地区、安新县城北局部地区 5～10 南张镇西北局部地区 雄安新区
其他地区端村镇北局部地区、大营镇西南 10～15 雄安新区
其他地区安州镇东部分地区、安新县城东北局部地区、
南张镇东等局部地区15～30 小里镇西及西南局部地区 雄安新区
其他地区端村镇西部分地区 30～50 双堂乡南—昝岗镇—朱各庄镇北—雄县县城西—龙湾镇南—
苟各庄镇北一线以东、南张镇西北、小里镇西南局部地区雄安新区
其他地区50～100 双堂乡南—昝岗镇—朱各庄镇西—雄县县城西—张北口镇北—
圈头乡—七间房乡南一线以东、南张镇东等局部地区雄安新区
其他地区同口镇西南部分地区、八于乡南局部地区 注：表中E为土体压缩模量；空白为无此项。
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表 4 地下空间利用地质安全风险评价指标体系
Table 4. Index system of geological safety risk evaluation on underground space utilization
风险类型 评价指标 风险等级 应用层位 I II III IV 应力异变
地质安全风险0～15 m含水砂层厚度/m M≥7.5 5≤M<7.5 2.5≤M<5 M<2.5 L1 15～30 m含水砂层厚度/m M≥7.5 5≤M<7.5 2.5≤M<5 M<2.5 L2 30～50 m含水砂层厚度/m M≥7.5 5≤M<7.5 2.5≤M<5 M<2.5 L3 50～65 m含水砂层厚度/m M≥7.5 5≤M<7.5 2.5≤M<5 M<2.5 L4 65～80 m含水砂层厚度/m M≥7.5 5≤M<7.5 2.5≤M<5 M<2.5 L4 80～100 m含水砂层厚度/m M≥7.5 5≤M<7.5 2.5≤M<5 M<2.5 L4 承载力
地质安全风险0～5 m土体承载力特征值/kPa f≤80 80<f≤100 100<f≤130 f>130 L1 5～10 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa f≤100 100<f≤130 130<f≤160 f>160 L1 10～15 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa f≤110 110<f≤130 130<f≤170 f>170 L1 15～30 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa f≤130 130<f≤160 160<f≤200 f>200 L2 30～50 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa f≤130 130<f≤160 160<f≤200 f>200 L3 50～100 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa f≤130 130<f≤160 160<f≤200 f>200 L4 0～5 m土体压缩模量/ MPa E≤4 4<E≤11 11<E≤15 E>15 L1 5～10 m土体压缩模量/ MPa E≤4 4<E≤11 11<E≤15 E>15 L1 10～15 m土体压缩模量/ MPa E≤4 4<E≤11 11<E≤15 E>15 L1 15～30 m土体压缩模量/ MPa E≤4 4<E≤11 11<E≤15 E>15 L2 30～50 m土体压缩模量/ MPa E≤4 4<E≤11 11<E≤15 E>15 L3 50～100 m土体压缩模量/ MPa E≤4 4<E≤11 11<E≤15 E>15 L4 淹没与抗浮
地质安全风险地面高程/m H≤8 8<H≤8.5 8.5<H≤9 H>9 L1，L2，L3，L4 地下水位埋深/m D≤5 5<D≤10 10<D≤15 D>15 L1，L2，L3，L4 土体压变地质安全风险 地面沉降速率/（mm·a−1） R≥50 30≤R<50 10≤R<30 R<10 L1，L2，L3，L4 砂土液化地质安全风险 砂土液化指数 I≥18 6≤I<18 0<I<6 I=0 L1 注：H为地面高程，R为地面沉降速率。
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表 5 浅层地下空间CRITIC权重计算结果
Table 5. Results of CRITIC weighting method for shallow underground space
风险类型 评价指标 标准差 冲突系数 信息量 CRITIC权重/% 应力异变地质安全风险 0～15 m含水砂层厚度/m 0.304 10.366 3.155 11.89 承载力地质安全风险 0～5 m土体承载力特征值/kPa 0.345 9.083 3.137 11.82 5～10 m土体承载力特征值/kPa 0.255 8.473 2.161 8.14 10～15 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa 0.191 8.892 1.701 6.41 0～5 m土体压缩模量/ kPa 0.192 8.801 1.693 6.38 5～10 m土体压缩模量/ kPa 0.129 9.689 1.251 4.71 10～15 m土体压缩模量/ kPa 0.092 10.892 0.998 3.76 淹没与抗浮地质安全风险 地面高程/m 0.439 8.352 3.666 13.82 地下水位埋深/m 0.415 8.069 3.349 12.62 土体压变地质安全风险 地面沉降速率/（ mm·a−1） 0.228 11.165 2.550 9.61 砂土液化地质安全风险 砂土液化指数 0.350 8.221 2.875 10.84
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表 6 浅层地下空间entropy权重计算结果
Table 6. Results of entropy weighting method for shallow underground space
风险类型 评价指标 熵值 效用值 Entropy权重/% 应力异变地质安全风险 0～15 m含水砂层厚度/m 0.9788 0.0212 1.70 承载力地质安全风险 0～5 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa 0.9710 0.0290 2.34 5～10 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa 0.7707 0.2293 18.46 10～15 m土体承载力特征值/ kPa 0.9759 0.0241 1.94 0～5 m土体压缩模量/ kPa 0.9660 0.0340 2.73 5～10 m土体压缩模量/ kPa 0.5948 0.4052 32.63 10～15 m土体压缩模量/ kPa 0.6823 0.3177 25.58 淹没与抗浮地质安全风险 地面高程/m 0.9281 0.0719 5.79 地下水位埋深/m 0.9330 0.0670 5.39 土体压变地质安全风险 地面沉降速率/（mm·a−1） 0.9903 0.0097 0.78 砂土液化地质安全风险 砂土液化指数 0.9671 0.0329 2.65
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