An improved Pearl model for landslide forecast and its application
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摘要: 针对选点法和变换法在求取Pearl模型参数时误差较大的缺陷，且预报判据缺乏足够论证，可能导致预测预报准确度较低问题，将非线性拟合确定参数的方法应用到Pearl模型的滑坡预测预报中，推导了Pearl模型速度和加速度最大值判据预报滑坡发生时间的计算公式。将非线性拟合确定参数的方法和推导的判据计算公式应用于一些滑坡实例的预报中，结果表明：滑坡实际发生时间介于Pearl模型速度最大值判据和加速度最大值判据的预报时间之间，用Pearl模型加速度最大值判据能起到提前预报的作用。Abstract: According to the problem that there is bigger error by using selected-point method and alternate method to calculate Pearl model parameters, and the forecast criterion of landslide time lacks enough rationality, and the forecasting accuracy may be lower, the nonlinear fitting method is applied to calculating parameters of Pearl model, and the calculation formulas of forecast time based on the maximum criterion of velocity and acceleration of Pearl model were deduced. By applying nonlinear fitting method and the calculation formula of forecast criterion on actual landslide prediction and forecast. Forecast results indicate that the actual occurrence time of landslide is earlier than the forecast time of velocity maximum criterion and later than the forecast time of acceleration maximum criterion. Taking the forecast time of acceleration maximum criterion of Pearl model as the forecast time of landslide happening can play a role of early warning.
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Key words:
- Pearl model /
- landslide forecast /
- criterion /
- velocity /
- acceleration /
- nonlinear fitting
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