Holocene extreme flood events in the Yangtze River Basin: Research progress and implications
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摘要:
随着全球气候变暖和人类活动加剧，全球洪水事件的发生频率与强度正在快速变化，揭示洪水发生规律及其驱动机制是当前古洪水水文学和全球变化研究的热点问题。长江流域作为中国洪涝灾害最为严重的区域之一，其洪水活动近年来呈现快速异常变化，较短的现代器测记录已不能满足未来洪水灾害风险预测的需求，迫切需要通过各种长时间尺度记录揭示过去时期长江流域洪水事件与气候变化之间的关系。本文通过综述各种极端洪水事件的地质记录和历史记录，确定全新世以来极端洪水事件的频发期，并与区域关键气候代用指标进行对比，发现洪水事件频发期主要跟气候的急剧突变和强烈的人类活动有关。然而准确预测长江流域洪水事件未来演化趋势，需不断加强各种代用记录的综合研究，进一步探索洪水发生机制与气候变化和人类活动耦合关系，并加强有关数值模拟方面的研究，以便于为未来长江流域的洪涝灾害防御、城乡规划优化布局、资源合理开发利用提供科学依据和决策支持。
Abstract:With global warming and the intensification of human activities, the frequency and magnitude of large river flood events are increasing in recent years. To reveal the regularity of flood occurrence and its driving mechanism is a hot issue in the study of paleoflood hydrology and global change. As one of the regions with the most severe flood disasters in China, the Yangtze River Basin has shown rapid and abnormal changes in flood activities in recent years. Short modern measurement records can no longer meet the needs of future flood disaster risk prediction, and it is urgent to reveal the relationship between flood events and climate change in the Yangtze River Basin in the past through various long-term records. By summarizing the geological and historical records of various extreme flood events, the frequent periods of extreme flood events since the Holocene were determined and compared with key regional climate proxies. However, to accurately predict the future evolution trend of flood events in the Yangtze River Basin, it is necessary to strengthen continuously the comprehensive research of various proxy records, to further explore the coupling relationship of flood occurrence mechanisms to climate changes and human activities, and to strengthen research on numerical simulation. This study provided a scientific basis and decision support for future flood disaster prevention, urban and rural planning optimization layout, and rational resource development and utilization in the Yangtze River Basin.
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Key words:
- paleoflood events /
- sedimentary record /
- global warming /
- human activities /
- the Yangtze River
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表 1 长江流域极端洪水事件研究剖面位置及代用指标
Table 1. Site and proxy of research profiles of extreme flood events in Yangtze River Basin
序号 河段 剖面位置 经纬度 地质记录类型 文献来源 1 上游 中坝遗址 30.34°N、108.45°E 文化遗址 [12] 2 玉溪遗址 30.03°N、107.86°E 文化遗址 [13] 3 红桥村 30.68°N、103.88°E 文化遗址 [14] 4 金沙遗址 30.68°N、104.00°E 文化遗址 [15] 5 马街遗址 30.89°N、103.92°E 文化遗址 [16] 6 张家湾遗址 31.27°N、109.77°E 文化遗址 [17] 7 汉东城遗址 29.00°N、105.84°E 文化遗址 [18] 8 涪碛口遗址 29.20°N、108.75°E 文化遗址 [19] 9 中游 曲远河 32.87°N、110.62°E 自然剖面 [20] 10 尚家河 32.84°N、110.46°E 自然剖面 [21] 11 庹家洲 32.85°N、110.39°E 自然剖面 [22] 12 庹家湾 32.86°N、110.39°E 自然剖面 [23] 13 李家咀 32.82°N、110.77°E 自然剖面 [24] 14 晏家棚 32.83°N、110.43°E 自然剖面 [25] 15 归仙河口 32.82°N、110.54°E 自然剖面 [22] 16 弥陀寺 32.82°N、110.58°E 自然剖面 [26] 17 前坊村 32.83°N、110.98°E 自然剖面 [27] 18 辽瓦店 32.82°N、110.68°E 自然剖面 [24] 19 黄坪村 32.84°N、110.74°E 自然剖面 [28] 20 万春村 33.19°N、107.69°E 自然剖面 [29] 21 祥龙洞 33.00°N、106.33°E 自然剖面 [30] 22 尾笔村 30.39°N、114.47°E 自然剖面 [31] 23 焦家台子 32.82°N、110.16°E 自然剖面 [32] 24 罗家滩 32.78°N、109.35°E 自然剖面 [33] 25 楼子滩 33.46°N、110.51°E 自然剖面 [34] 26 泥沟口 32.89°N、109.53°E 自然剖面 [35] 27 立石村 30.20°N、105.30°E 自然剖面 [36] 28 新滩村 32.76°N、109.33°E 自然剖面 [37] 29 杜家沟 33.19°N、107.67°E 自然剖面 [38] 30 三房湾 30.46°N、113.04°E 自然剖面 [39] 31 江北农场二砖厂 30.18°N、112.34°E 自然剖面 [40] 32 消泗剖面 30.32°N、113.78°E 自然剖面 [41] 33 武汉 30.64°N、114.34°E 自然剖面 [42] 34 SK10 30.60°N、114.31°E 自然剖面 [43] 35 ZK145 30.66°N、114.44°E 自然剖面 [44-45] 36 钟桥遗址 30.31°N、112.27°E 文化遗址 [46] 37 中游 JH001 30.52°N、114.39°E 自然剖面 [47] 38 扬子江剖面 30.30°N、112.12°E 自然剖面 [48] 39 网湖 29.86°N、115.33°E 自然剖面 [49] 40 中洲子 29.80°N、112.75°E 自然剖面 [50] 41 天鹅洲 29.85°N、112.57°E 自然剖面 [51] 42 下游 修河 29.05°N、115.83°E 自然剖面 [52] 43 赣江 29.10°N、116.00°E 自然剖面 [52] 44 黄茅潭 29.80°N、116.35°E 自然剖面 [52] 45 大汊湖 29.10°N、116.01°E 自然剖面 [52] 46 东门镇林峰桥 32.14°N、118.70°E 自然剖面 [53] 47 宝华山-和平冲 32.16°N、119.02°E 自然剖面 [54] 48 宝华山 32.13°N、119.09°E 自然剖面 [54] 
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表 2 长江流域滞流沉积物与冲积平原沉积物宏观特征对比
Table 2. Comparison of macroscopic characteristics of slack water deposits in the Yangtze River Basin and overbank flooding deposits in the floodplain
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