Suitability evaluation of shallow geothermal energy based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation: A case study of Changle County in Shandong Province
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摘要: 层次分析法-模糊综合评价模型可有效解决传统评价分析方法难以对模糊概念进行定量评价以及受主观影响较大等问题,使评价结果更加合理、精确。综合选取单一岩体厚度、地下水埋深、含水层总厚度、地层岩性、导热系数、比热容和地温等7个评价因子,运用层次分析法-模糊综合评价模型对山东省昌乐县浅层地热能适宜性进行了评价,将研究区划分为适宜性中等区和适宜性差区,适宜性中等区面积为44.71 km2,适宜性差区面积为10.29 km2。结合昌乐县城市规划,将研究区进一步划分为一般开发区、鼓励开发区、大力发展区和限制开发区。研究区浅层地热能开发利用潜力较大,合理开发利用可带来巨大的经济和社会效益。Abstract: Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model can be applied to effectively solve the problems caused by traditional evaluation methods, which are the difficulty in quantitative assessment and the subjective effects on fuzzy concept's, so that the evaluation results are more reasonable and accurate. The researchers in this paper have adopted 7 factors, including single rock mass, depth of groundwater, total thickness of aquifer, lithology of stratum, thermal conductivity, heat capacity and soil temperature, to evaluate the adaptability of shallow geothermal energy of Changle County in Shandong Province by AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The research area was divided into two subsections, including medium suitability areas of 44.71 km2 and poor suitability areas of 10.29 km2. The study areas were further divided into general development zone, encouraging development zone, vigorous development zone and restricted development zone, combined with the urban planning of Changle County. The shallow geothermal energy in the study area has the greater potential, and the reasonable development can bring huge economic and social benefits.
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