Risk assessment of geological hazards under different plotting scales: A case study of Huangxikou Town in Hunan Province
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摘要: 为探讨多尺度地质灾害风险评价模型、方法的差异和适用性,以湖南省黄溪口镇为研究区,在图幅单元灾害地质调查基础上,选取工程地质岩组、斜坡结构等8个评价指标,采用信息量模型开展以栅格为单元的 1∶5 万地质灾害风险评价,得出研究区低、中、高和极高风险区分别占总面积的32.0%、24.6%、38.0%和5.4%。采用水文学与人工干涉方法划分161处斜坡单元,选取发生地质灾害的可能性、灾害强度、承灾体类型和数量、易损性下的17个指标30个因子构建层次分析评分分级模型,开展以斜坡为单元的1∶1万重点区地质灾害风险评价,得出重点区地质灾害低风险斜坡84处、中风险斜坡49处、高风险斜坡24处、极高风险斜坡4处。受调查精度和评价方法影响,同一地段两种模型方法的评价结果不完全一致,应当依据调查精度和研究程度选用适当的评价方法。对于中小比例尺区域地质灾害风险评价,可采用基于数理统计定量计算的信息量评价模型,模型简单,易于推广,建模效率快,适合区域性推广; 对于大比例尺重点区地质灾害风险评价,基于精细化斜坡单元调查结果,可以建立层次分析多指标评分分级评价模型,评价指标详细易懂,可实现对逐个斜坡单元的风险评价,适用于边坡管理和斜坡风险动态更新。研究成果可为不同比例尺度下的地质灾害风险评价方法选取和应用提供参考。Abstract: In order to explore the differences and applicability of geological disaster risk assessment models and methods under different plotting scales, the authors took Huangxikou Town in Hunan Province as the study area and selected 8 evaluation indicators, such as engineering geological petrofabric and slope structure, to assess the geological disaster risk under 1∶50,000 scale with grid unit using information model, on the basis of disaster geological survey map unit. The results show that the low, medium, high, and extremely high risk areas in the study region account for 32.0%, 24.6%, 38.0%, and 5.4% respectively of the total area. One hundred and sixty-one slope units were divided using hydrological methods and manual intervention methods, and 17 indicators and 30 factors under the categories of the possibility, intensity, category and quantity of disaster-bearing bodies and vulnerability of geological disasters, were selected to construct an analytic hierarchy process grading model. The 1∶10,000 scale risk assessment of geological disasters with slope as the basic unit was carried out, and 84 low-risk slopes, 49 medium-risk slopes, 24 high-risk slopes, and 4 extremely high-risk slopes were identified within the key study area. Due to the influence of survey accuracy and evaluation methods, the assessment results of the two model methods for the same location are not entirely consistent. Therefore, it is advisable to select an appropriate evaluation method based on survey accuracy and research depth. For geological disaster risk assessments in areas under small and medium scales, the information quantity evaluation model based on quantitative calculations using mathematical statistics is recommended, with characteristics of simple, easy to promote, and efficient in modeling, making it suitable for regional promotion. For geological disaster risk assessments in key areas under large scales, the multi-indicator scoring and grading evaluation model on the basis of hierarchical analysis is recommended based on detailed slope unit survey results. These evaluation indicators are detailed and easy to understand, allowing for risk assessments of individual slope units, which is suitable for slope management and dynamic updates of slope risks. This study results could provide some references for the selection and application of geological disaster risk evaluation methods under different scales.
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