Formation mechanism and research prospect of typical high-altitude debris flow disasters in the eastern Tibetan Plateau
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摘要:
受全球气候变化影响，青藏高原东部高位地质灾害的发生频率有显著增加的趋势。高位泥石流作为一种典型的高位地质灾害，与一般泥石流相比，具有灾害规模更大、隐蔽性更高、流动距离远、危害程度更严重等特点。基于现阶段国内外研究成果，系统总结了青藏高原东部典型高位泥石流灾害的概念、主要类型、成灾模式、发生机制和运动特征等；梳理了青藏高原东部高位泥石流的4类主要成灾模式，即降雨诱发型高位泥石流、冰川-冰岩崩型高位泥石流、降雨-冰雪融水型高位泥石流及冰湖溃决型高位泥石流；以3个区内高位泥石流为典型案例进行成因与潜在风险研究，揭示了青藏高原东部高位泥石流的巨大危险性与破坏性。在此基础上，提出了高位泥石流的3个研究展望，指出青藏高原东部高位泥石流研究可借鉴的相关理论和方法，探讨了未来高位泥石流演化动力学机制及监测预警体系建设与装备研发的研究思路。
Abstract:The high-altitude geological hazards along the eastern Tibetan Plateau has a rising occurrence due to global climate change. Among these, high-altitude debris flows stand out due to their unique traits, including larger magnitudes, greater concealment, longer travel distances, and more devastating impacts compared to conventional debris flows. Based on recent global and domestic research, the conceptual definitions, classifications, disaster mechanisms, formation processes, and kinematic features of high-altitude debris flows in this area were comprehensively reviewed in this study. Four dominant disaster-triggering modes were identified, that is rainfall-induced high-altitude debris flows, glacier-ice-rock collapse debris flows, rainfall and snowmelt water-induced debris flows, and glacial lake outburst debris flows. And the authors conducted a study on the causes and potential risks by taking high-altitude debris flows in three regions as typical cases, revealing the huge risks, hazardness and destructiveness of the high-altitude debris flows in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. On this basis, three research prospects for high-altitude debris flow were proposed, and relevant theorits and methods that can be used for reference in the study of high-altitude debris flows in the eastern Tibetan Plateau were pointed out. Besides, the research ideas on equipment development, early warning systems establishment and dynamic evolution models for high-altitude debris flows were also discussed.
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表 1 基于不同诱发因素的青藏高原东部高位泥石流灾害成因类型
Table 1. Genetic types of high-altitude debris flow disasters in the eastern Tibetan Plateau based on different inducing factors
成因类型 作用机理 运动特征 成灾模式 降雨诱发型 岩土体软化、渗流作用、浮托作用、水楔作用 冲刷、侧蚀沟谷、山洪泥石流 岩土体饱水-渗流冲击 冰川-冰岩崩型 冰岩崩落、碎屑混合、流体启动 冲刷沟谷、坡面滑移 冰崩碎屑流-泥石流冲击、铲刮 降雨-冰雪融水型 水源汇聚、混合输移 流态演进、漫流堆积 渗流变形-堵溃 冰湖溃决型 冰凌、侵蚀作用 溃决 冰湖拥堵-溃决灾害链 
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表 2 海子沟泥石流数值模拟参数表
Table 2. Numerical simulation parameters for Haizi Gully debris flow
模型 摩擦系数 紊流系数 侵蚀平均增长率 Voellmy模型 0.08 1 000 - 侵蚀模型 - - 0.114×10-4 注: “-”为无数据。
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