A preliminary study on evaluating method of water resources' carrying capacities of China and its application
-
摘要: 在水资源趋紧和水需求增长的背景下,水成为经济发展的约束资源,亟待“以水定城、以水定地、以水定人、以水定产”,把水资源作为最大的刚性约束,推动用水方式由粗放向节约集约转变。为将“以水四定”与农业、生活、工业、城镇发展相对应,本文将“地、人、产、城”分别定义为耕地面积、人口规模、工业增加值总量、城镇建设用地面积。在此基础上,初步探索了水资源承载评价方法,引入了“综合定额”的概念,力求揭示耕地与主要农作物、工业与耗水行业的内在联系与计算规则。通过全国31个省区市的评价结果显示,浪费情景处于超载,节约情景有较大盈余,倒逼节水行动。在水资源承载最大规模下,全国仍有超载区,耕地超载呈中部“塌陷”,人口超载呈环状“倒塌”,工业超载呈区域性“沦陷”,城镇用地超载呈沿海少点“亏空”,该区域需要从水资源总量、结构、效率等方面提升承载规模。Abstract: Water resources' quantity is the most important constraining factor for the development levels of a society. Agriculture, population, industry, and town scales are four key factors which indicate the development levels of a society should be determined by water resources. This paper explores the evaluating method of water resources' carrying capacity of China, introduces the concept of "comprehensive quota", and tries to reveal the relations among cultivated land, main crops, industry, and water. The preliminary evaluating results of 31 provinces and municipalities of China show that waste of water is very serious in some areas and there is a lot of water-saving work should be done in the future. Even though evaluated at their largest water carrying capacities, a lot of areas are still in overloaded situation in the country. The overload of arable land is in the central part of the country. The overload of population is in an annular shape. The industrial overload is regional, and the urban land is overloaded while the coastal parts of the country are with a small "deficit". All of these overloaded areas need to improve their regional social carrying capacities in aspects of water resources, social structure and efficiency of industry.
-
-
[1] 左其亭.水资源承载力研究方法总结与再思考[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(3):1-6.
[2] 党丽娟,徐勇.水资源承载力研究进展及启示[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(3):341-348.
[3] 金菊良,董涛,郦建强,等.区域水资源承载力评价的风险矩阵方法[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(2):46-50.
[4] 李燕,张兴奇.基于主成分分析的长江经济带水资源承载力评价[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(4):172-178.
[5] 党丽娟,徐勇.水资源承载力研究进展及启示[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(3):341-348.
[6] 唱彤,郦建强,金菊良,等.面向水流系统功能的多维度水资源承载力评价指标体系[J].水资源保护,2020,36(1):44-51.
[7] 胡启玲,董增川,杨雁飞,等. 基于联系数的水资源承载力状态评价模型[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版),2019,47(5):425-432.
[8] 金菊良,沈时兴,崔毅,等.面向关系结构的水资源集对分析研究进展[J].水利学报,2019,50(1):97-111.
[9] CHEN Y Z, OVEREEM I, KETTNER A J, et al. Modeling flood dynamics along the superelevated channel belt of the Yellow River over the last 3000 years[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Earth Surface, 2015, 120(7):1321-1351.
[10] 陈喜昌,刘宝珺,王洁民,等.嘉陵江水资源的开发与防灾工程[J].沉积与特提斯地质,2000,20(2):27-32.
[11] 李冰,董增川,杭庆丰,等.盐城市水资源承载状态量化研究[J].水利经济,2019,37(1):65-69.
[12] 郦建强,王建生,颜勇.我国水资源安全现状与主要存在问题分析[J].中国水利,2011(23):42-51.
[13] 吕一河,傅微,李婷,等.区域资源环境综合承载力研究进展与展望[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(1):130-138.
[14] 孙才志,吴永杰,刘文新.基于熵权TOPSIS法的大连市水贫困评价及障碍因子分析[J].水资源保护,2017,33(4):1-8.
[15] 伍文琪,罗贤,黄玮,等.云南省水资源承载力评价与时空分布特征研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(7):1517-1524.
[16] 杨亮洁,杨永春.甘肃省资源环境承载力时空分异[J].生态学报,2017,37(20):7000-7017.
[17] 李燕,张兴奇.基于主成分分析的长江经济带水资源承载力评价[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(4):172-178.
[18] 王鸿翔,陈秋米,张海涛,等.基于主成分分析的宁夏水资源承载力研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2018(11):30-34.
-
计量
- 文章访问数: 1243
- PDF下载数: 74
- 施引文献: 0