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摘要: 【研究目的】泥石流因其范围广、成灾快、危害大的特点，易对山区基础工程设施造成破坏，并严重阻碍地区经济发展。近年来，北京山区地质灾害多发频发，延庆区作为北京的生态涵养区，旅游景点众多，但是泥石流隐患也比较多。为了降低泥石流的潜在威胁，对延庆区泥石流进行深入研究至关重要。【研究方法】本文以延庆区岔石口村泥石流沟作为研究对象，进行危险性分析和预测。【研究结果】研究结果显示：沟内松散堆积物可分为3 类：冲洪积、残坡积和人工堆积，其动态储量为9.9×104 m3。由洪峰值流量和一次泥石流冲出固体物质总量确定该泥石流规模为中型；在4 个降雨工况下（10 年、20 年、50 年和100 年一遇），危险区面积分别为0.004 4 km2、0.005 1 km2、0.005 9 km2、0.006 8 km2。发展阶段属于衰退期。【结论】经过深入分析，发现该泥石流沟爆发中型泥石流的几率很大，将对下游道路和村庄居民造成危害。对此沟的详细研究不仅有助于深入理解该区域泥石流的成因机制、动力学特征及发展趋势，还能为类似地质环境条件下的单沟泥石流研究和灾害防治提供参考。Abstract: This paper is the result of debris flow hazard study.[Objective]The debris flow, because of its wide range, rapid disaster and great harm, has caused damage to the basic engineering facilities in the mountain area, and seriously hindered the regional economic development. In recent years, geological disasters have occurred frequently in the mountainous areas of Beijing.Yanqing District, as the ecological conservation area of Beijing, has many tourist attractions, but there are also many hidden dangers of debris flow. [Methods]In order to reduce the potential threat of debris flow, it is very important to study related debris flow in Yanqing District.In this paper, the debris flow ditch in Chashikou village of Yanqing District is taken as the research object to analyze and forecast the risk. [Results]The results show that loose deposits of Maoshangou can be categorized into three types:alluvial and diluvial deposits, residual-slope deposits, and artificial deposits, with a dynamic reserve of 9.9×104 m3.From the peak flow value and the total amounts of solids washed out by the primary debris flow, it can be determined that the size of this debris flow is medium. By varying rainstorm frequencies (10-, 20-, 50-, 100-year rainfall events), the respective hazardous areas are measured to be 0.004 4, 0.005 1, 0.005 9, and 0.006 8 km2.The stage of debris flow development is considered to be a recession period. [Conclusions]After thorough discussions, it was found that the chances of the debris flow gully erupting into a medium-sized debris flow are high, which will pose a hazard to the residents of the downstream roads and villages. The detailed study of this ditch not only helps to deeply understand the mechanism, dynamic characteristics and development trend of the debris flow in this region, but also provides a reference for the study of debris flow and disaster prevention and control of the single ditch under similar geological conditions.
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Key words:
- debris flow /
- formation condition /
- dynamic characteristics /
- hazardous area prediction /
- Maoshangou
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