ADVANCES IN THE STUDY OF PALEOTEMPESTOLOGY
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摘要: 频发的强风暴活动及其带来的巨大损失引起了人们越来越多的关注,也引发了激烈的争议,如它是全球气候变暖的产物还是正常气候波动的结果。由于器测风暴记录的年限短,要更好地理解风暴的活动规律,需要扩展风暴记录年限,因此古风暴研究便应运而生。始于20世纪90年代,经过近十几年发展的古风暴研究无论是在方法还是在成果方面都取得了较大进步。在研究方法方面,从运用单一的风暴替代性指标到综合运用沉积学、古生物学、历史文献以及地球化学等替代性指标来恢复古风暴历史;在研究成果方面,对古风暴活动历史的了解被大幅度扩展,为认识风暴活动的周期性和长期变化趋势提供了条件。其中关于风暴活动与全球变暖的关系,最新结果表明二者之间是互为促进的,而并不是单纯的被动响应关系,即风暴活动增强会促进气候变暖,而气候变暖又会使风暴活动进一步增强。未来的古风暴研究,一方面需要继续完善基本原理、研究方法并发掘新的古风暴替代性指标;另一方面需要进一步扩展古风暴活动的年限,并综合多种古风暴替代性指标进行对比研究,提高古风暴年谱的时间和空间分辨率,促进对风暴发生规律的深入理解,为未来风暴活动的预测预报提供科学依据。Abstract: The recent increase in intense storm(tropical cyclone) activities and huge storm losses has attracted great interests and triggered a hot debate over whether it is linked to global warming or only a part of the large interdecadal variability. Due to the short instrumental record, it's difficult for us to understand the complex processes and mechanism of storm generation and development. Therefore, in order to extend the time span of storm activity records, a new young science-Paleotempestology emerged in the early 1990s. In the past more than 10 years,significant progress has been achieved in both methodology and findings in Paleotempestology. The methodology has been evolving from a single proxy to multi-proxy techniques by integrating various proxies of geologic evidence, microfossils, historical documents and geochemistry to reconstruct the storm history. Talking about findings, the history of storm records has been greatly extended and this provides a sufficient condition for the study of storm periodicity and long-term trends. As to the heated debate on the link between the increased storm and global warming, a new study suggests that the storm activities do not just passively respond to climate change, and storm activities may be closely tied to global temperature patterns through feedbacks-the storm activities may accelerate the global warming, and as a feedback, global warming will increase storms. As to the future research of Paleotempestology, we should improve the basic theory and methods to explore new proxies in Paleotempestology, and further extend the time span of storm activity records and integrate various proxies to establish high-resolution storm records to understand the process and mechanism of storm generation and development so as to provide a scientific basis for storm forecasting.
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Key words:
- tropical cyclone /
- Paleotempestology /
- proxies /
- global warming /
- periodicity
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