摘要:
世界上约66%的磷矿石用于生产磷肥,磷矿的合理开采和利用直接关系国家粮食安全以及人类的生存发展,磷矿工业的可持续发展对化肥工业和农业生产均具有重要意义。本文通过对典型工业化国家人均磷肥消费与人均GDP倒“U”形规律的分析,结合我国历史磷肥消费状况、氮磷钾科学施肥比例以及未来经济发展趋势,分三种经济增长情景(即高增长、参考和低增长)对我国未来的磷肥需求进行预测,并根据磷矿消费结构,进一步估算了磷矿资源的需求。根据本研究的预测结果,中国磷肥需求峰值预计可能在2020—2025年到来,届时磷肥需求可能达到1700~1800万吨(折 P2O5100%),磷矿石需求总量可能达到2000~2100万吨(折 P2O5100%)。这一预测结果将会对指导磷肥的合理施用,以及磷矿的可持续开发利用起到积极作用。
Abstract:
Phosphorus is essential for crop growth. Most of the phosphorus, which is applied to agricultural land, comes from phosphate rock. About 66%of the phosphate rock ore mined was used to produce phosphate fertilizer. A reasonable exploitation and utilization of phosphate rock is a key to the national food security and human survival. Sustainable development of the phosphate rock industry is important for the fertilizer industry and agricultural production. This paper analyzes the per capita consumption of the phosphate fertilizer and per capita GDP inverted U shape rule in typical industrialized countries. Combined with the history of phosphate fertilizer consumption, the reasonable ratio of N:P:K and the economy development trend in China, the authors assumed three scenarios, i.e., the high growth scenario, the medium growth scenario and the low growth scenario and, on such a basis, predicted China’s phosphate fertilizer demand. Then, in accordance with phosphorus consumption structure, the demand of phosphate rock was estimated. It is concluded that the demand for China’s phosphate fertilizer may be at the peak between 2020 and 2025 according to the medium growth scenario. The consumption of China’s phosphate fertilizer may reach 17~18 million tons (P2O5100%) and the total consumption of the phosphate rock may attain 20~21 million tons (P2O5100%). The results will play a positive role in the rational application of phosphate fertilizer and sustainable exploitation and utilization of the phosphate rock.
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