摘要:
本文以能源和大宗矿产资源消费与经济发展的“S”形规律为基础,总结并讨论了发达国家经济社会发展过程中,人均能源和矿产资源消费增长的极限及其与基础设施建设、城市化水平、社会财富积累以及经济结构变化的关系;指出人类对美好生活的物质追求是推动能源和矿产资源消费增长的原动力,从农业社会、工业社会到后工业化社会,随着经济发展,即人均收入或人均GDP的不断提高,城市化率、基础设施建设和社会财富积累水平持续提升,大宗商品或资源性产品消费将陆续进入准近饱和状态,消费结构的改变,致使铁、铜、铝等大宗矿产在工业化中期开始陆续到达人均消费极限值,并引起产业结构调整升级,推动经济结构变迁;进入后工业化发展阶段,以服务业为主体的国民经济体系逐渐使人均能源消费增长到达极限值;强调国家集团或大国资源消费增长极限的到来是导致全球性矿产资源消费增长周期结束的根本原因.
Abstract:
Based on the "S"-shaped curve of consumption and economic development of energy and mineral resources,this paper summarizes and discusses the limits to growth of per capita energy and mineral resource consumption in the process of economic and social development of developed countries and their relationship with infrastructure construction and urbanization.The paper points out that the growth of energy and mineral resource consumption is driven by the pursuit of good life.From the agricultural society through the industrial society to the post-industrial society,with the economic development,i.e.,continuous improvement of the per capita GDP,urbanization rate,infrastructure construction,and the continual increase of social wealth accumulation level,the resource consumption will gradually enter the near-saturated state.As a result of the changes in consumption structure,the consumption of iron,copper,aluminum and other minerals begins to reach the limit in the mid-industrialization stage.In addition,it leads to industrial restructuring and economic structural changes.In the post-industrial development stage,the per capita energy consumption reaches the growth limit with the service industry being the mainstay of the economic system.Emphasis on national groups or large-scale ecnomise with regard to the consumption of energy and mineral resources is the fundamental reason leading to the end of the growth cycle of global mineral resource consumption.
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