摘要:
以新疆维吾尔自治区精河流域绿洲为研究区,基于CLUE_S模型,运用logistic逐步回归法选择铁路、公路、水渠、河流、湖面及居民点驱动因子,利用1972年和1990年2期土地利用数据,对研究区2010年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟。在通过精度检验的基础上,分别设置“历史趋势预案”和“生态保护预案”2种情景模拟了研究区2025年土地利用变化空间分布格局。结果表明:对于干旱区绿洲小区域尺度未来土地利用的变化趋势,CLUE_S模型具有良好的模拟能力;没有加入任何限制区域的“历史趋势预案”模式下,2025年研究区生态环境将进一步恶化;坚持耕地保护制度和执行艾比湖湿地国家级自然保护区制度的“生态保护预案”前提下,2025年研究区生态环境明显向好,土地利用率显著增加。研究结果对干旱区绿洲及生态环境脆弱区的土地利用可持续发展具有明显的实践意义。
Abstract:
Based on CLUE-S model with digital land use images of 1972 and 1990 , the authors detected the key forces driving land use change and controlling land use pattern in Jinhe watershed of Xinjiang from such biophysical and socioeconomic factors as railways, highways, canals, rivers, Aibi Lake and residents by using logistic stepwise regression method. With the analytical data obtained, the CLUE-S model suitable for modeling the study area was constructed in 2010 . Also this result was validated by the Kappa index 0 . 82 . Then two scenarios of land -use spatial allocation in Jinhe watershed in 2025, namely, “historical development trend scenario” and “ecology -priority scenario”, were established through designing different restrictions on land-use transition when CLUE-S model was performed in GIS environment. Some conclusions have been reached:CLUE-S model is a powerful tool to simulate land-use spatial distribution trend in the future at the arid regional scale;In the historical development trend scenario, the ecological environment will be further deteriorated in 2025; In the ecology-priority scenario, the ecological environment will be optimized, and the land utilization rate will be raised too. The results obtained by the authors will be of use to sustainable development of land-use in arid oasis and other environmental fragile zones.
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