摘要:
作为河南省高标准粮田建设试点,鹤壁市肩负着保证粮食安全的重担,对其未来土地利用模拟预测方法进行研究具有现实意义.基于元胞自动机-马尔科夫(Cellular Automata Markov,CA-Markov)模型方法,结合河南省三化协调发展的历史进程,在分析过去20 a间鹤壁市土地利用特征的基础上,将预测分为2种情景进行.结果发现:鹤壁市2013年预测图的Kappa指数为0.898,说明CA-Markov模型的预测结果能达到模拟效果;基于数量、空间及景观指数的比较结果显示,情景Ⅱ模式更符合中原经济区建设及工业化发展的要求,符合高标准粮田建设"绿色化"发展的生态环境保护立场,符合鹤壁市城市总体规划,其斑块形状规则、集聚度高且内部连续性强、景观破碎度较低、分布均匀且优势性明显.因此,未来按照情景Ⅱ模式发展,将有利于高标准粮田区的土地可持续利用.
Abstract:
In the period of"13th Five - Year Plan", the national planning attaches great importance to the implementation of construction of the high standard grain area. As one of the high standard grain areas in Henan Province,Hebi City shoulders the burden of ensuring food security. That is why it is of practical significance to study the simulation and prediction of land use in Hebi City in the future. With the use of CA-Markov model and on the basis of the historical process of the coordinated development of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization of Henan Province, the prediction can be divided into two scenarios for the simulation and prediction of land use according to the analysis of the characteristics of land use in Hebi city in the past 20 years. The results can show that the Kappa index of Hebi City in 2013 was about 0.898, which means that the fitting effect is the best,and that the prediction results of CA-Markov model can achieve good fitting effect. Based on comparative analysis of the quantity,the space and the landscape index of Hebi City,it is held that the scenario II can be more in line with the demand of the Central Plains Economic Area and the industrial development as well as with the"green development"in the High Standard Grain Area's ecological and environmental protection grounds. What's more,it is in accordance with the planning of Hebi City, the patch shape is more regular, the plaque agglomeration degree is high,the internal continuity is strong, landscape fragmentation degree is low, and the landscape distribution is uniform,thus exhibiting obvious advantages. The authors hold that,in the future,the government should adhere to scenario II model for the development of the construction of the High Standard Grain Area so that the land can realize sustainable development.
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