Emerging risk assessment of areas subject to land subsidence in the southern plain of Tianjin, China
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摘要: 新兴技术的发展在优化城市建设和改善人类生活的同时,也存在着一定的风险,进而引发城市安全问题。天津市是中国的沿海城市,其沿海海平面的不断上升,南水进津改变水循环,地下空间的开发利用,这些因素与地面沉降进行叠加耦合都将成为天津市新兴风险评价的重要因素。文章首先对天津市南部平原沉降信息进行获取,叠加海平面上升速率预测天津市自然海岸线后退情况。基于此,利用机器学习方法(XGBoost)预测天津市相对海平面上升带来的高风险因素。此外,针对南水北调-地下空间开发的应用带来的新兴风险进行分析,揭示南水进津和地铁建设运行对天津市城市安全的响应规律。这些地面沉降与现代人类活动结合带来的新兴风险分析研究将为区域防灾减灾提供科学依据,提高城市抵御灾害的能力。Abstract: The development of emerging technologies poses some risks while improving urban construction and human life, thus further causing urban safety problems. Tianjin is a coastal city in China, where the coastal sea level keeps increasing, water cycling is changed by the water supply of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and the underground space is subject to development and utilization. These factors, coupled with land subsidence, are all critical for the assessment of emerging risks in Tianjin. This study extracted information on the land subsidence of the southern plain in Tianjin and then predicted the retreat of the natural coastline in Tianjin by combining the sea level rise rate. Accordingly, this study predicted the high-risk factors brought by relative sea level rise in Tianjin using a machine learning method (XGBoost). In addition, this study analyzed the emerging risks caused by the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the development and utilization of underground space and revealed the response patterns of the water supply and the construction and operation of subways to the urban safety of Tianjin. The study on the emerging risks brought about by the combination of land subsidence and modern human activities will provide a scientific basis for regional disaster prevention and mitigation and improve cities’ ability to resist disasters.
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Key words:
- land subsidence /
- emerging risk /
- relative sea level rise /
- XGBoost
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