摘要:
随着我国光伏产业的快速发展,盲目建设光伏电站问题日渐显现,掌握区域光伏开发适宜性、发电潜力和减排效应对光伏产业健康发展具有重要意义。本研究基于遥感数据、气象数据和基础地理数据等构建光伏开发适宜性评价指标体系,评估了川西高原光伏开发适宜性区域,估算了光伏发电潜力和减排效应。结果表明,光伏开发适宜性评估区域占川西高原总面积的57.43%,高适宜区面积约2.07×104 km2,主要分布在川西高原西南和西北地区; 川西高原发电潜力巨大, 高适宜区全部开发情景下发电潜力为17 197.97亿kWh,相当于新型冠状病毒疫情发生前四川省2019年电力消费总量的6.52倍; 与传统火力发电相比,高适宜区光伏发电每年潜在CO2减排量为12.45亿t,约为我国2019年CO2排放总量的12.71%,是四川省的3.95倍,同时,可减少大量煤炭、常规污染物和重金属的排放。研究结果为川西高原光伏电站选址和光伏产业的健康发展提供科学参考和指导建议。
Abstract:
The rapid growth of China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry is accompanied by unplanned construction of PV power plants. Ascertaining the regional PV development suitability, power generation potential, and emission reduction effects holds critical significance for the sound development of the PV industry. Based on remote sensing, meteorological, and fundamental geographic data, this study constructed an evaluation index system for PV development suitability. Using this system, it assessed the zones suitable for PV development in the Western Sichuan Plateau and estimated the PV power generation potential and emission reduction effects. The results are as follows: ① The zones suitable for PV development account for 57.43% of the entire plateau, with highly suitable zones covering an area of approximately 2.07×104 km2, which are distributed primarily in the southwestern and northwestern portions of the plateau; ② The plateau exhibits significant power generation potential, reaching 17 197.97×108 KWh in highly suitable zones under a full development scenario, which is equivalent to 6.52-fold Sichuan Province’s total electricity consumption in 2019 before the COVID-19 outbreak; ③ Contrasting with conventional thermal power generation, PV power generation in highly suitable zones can achieve annual CO2 emission reduction of 12.45×108 t, which is about 12.71% of China’s total CO2 emissions in 2019 and 3.95-fold Sichuan Province’s CO2 emissions. Moreover, PV power generation can diminish the emissions of coal and conventional pollutants as well as heavy metals. The findings offer a scientific reference and guidance for selecting sites for PV power plants in the Western Sichuan Plateau and promoting the sustainable growth of the PV industry.
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