摘要:
近年来,我国对居民碳排放的研究多集中于经济水平和直接能源消耗方面,在居民区面积方面涉及较少,且研究大多依赖传统的地表实测数据。为了提高数据精度、更有针对性地制定政策,该文利用遥感影像时效性强、覆盖范围广、制约性小等特点,选取中国区域为研究对象,分析了2019年中国居民区面积和居民碳排放的相关性。在确定两者显著性后,结合国内生产总值(gross domestc product,GDP)这一影响因素建立了居民碳排放与居民区面积和GDP的多元线性回归模型。结果显示: 居民碳排放与居民区面积和GDP之间存在线性相关,随着经济水平的发展,居民区面积的扩建是居民碳排放量增加的主要推动力,GDP对居民碳排放量增加的驱动效应有所下降。因此,在考虑经济发展的同时需要合理控制居民区面积,从而能够更精细化地制定减排政策,实现国家未来的绿色低碳目标。
Abstract:
In recent years, the research on residents’ carbon emissions has mostly focused on the economic level and direct energy consumption, and less involved in the area of residential areas, and most of the research has relied on traditional surface measured data. In order to improve data accuracy and make more targeted policies, this paper selected China as the research object by taking advantage of the features of strong timeliness, wide coverage and small constraints of remote sensing images, and analyzed the correlation between residential area and residential carbon emissions in China in 2019. After determining the significance of the two, combined with the influencing factor of GDP, a multiple linear regression model was established between residents’ carbon emissions and residential area and GDP. The results show that there is a linear correlation between residents’ carbon emissions and the area of residential areas and GDP. With the development of economic level, the expansion of residential area is the main driving force for the increase of residential carbon emissions, and the driving effect of GDP on the increase of residential carbon emissions has decreased. Therefore, it is necessary to reasonably control the expansion of residential areas while considering economic development, so as to make more refined emission reduction policies and achieve the country's future green and low-carbon goals.
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