摘要:
风暴潮灾害风险是由风暴潮危险性、承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和防潮减灾能力决定的,其中承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和防潮减灾能力构成了风暴潮灾害的易损性。结合目前国内对风暴潮灾害危险性研究较为深入,而对易损性研究欠缺的现状,以青岛沿海风暴潮为例,建立了风暴潮灾害易损性风险区划模型。模型首先通过风险因子识别建立了风险评价指标体系,然后采用聚类分析将研究区域进行综合分类,再用熵值法、灰色关联分析及模糊综合评价法分别对各地区潮灾风险进行量化,最后应用熵值—灰色—模糊组合方法从主客观角度定性定量进行综合风险区划排名,将青岛九区市划分为4个不同风险等级,揭示了青岛近海地区风暴潮灾害风险的地域差异性,为因地制宜地制定防灾减灾措施与规划提供了科学依据。
Abstract:
The factors that affect the risk of storm surge including the characteristics of the storm itself, the vulnerability and exposure of disaster bearers and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of the bearers, and the latter two consists of the vulnerability of the storm surge. Based on the research status that more studies are rendered to storm surge itself than disaster bearers, the authors built up a model for risk zoning in this paper according to storm surge vulnerability taking Qingdao as an example. Firstly, the authors established the index system of risk evaluation according to the storm surge disaster risk factors, and then the risk areas were classified through the cluster analysis. Secondly, the methods of entropy and grey correlation analysis were used to quantitatively evaluate the risk of storm surge. Finally, different risk areas were ranked. As the result, 4 risk levels were recognized by means of the combination of the two methods mentioned before. The result reveals the regional differences of the storm surge disaster risk, and provided a scientific basis for government to take prevention and mitigation measures according to local conditions.
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