RECENT PROGRESS ON SPECIFIC CLIMATIC STAGES AND DRIVING FORCES OVER LAST 2000 YEARS
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摘要: 清楚认识过去2 000年来特征气候时段的气候特性,对于了解现代气候状况及其变化趋势有重要意义。大量研究显示,过去2 000年来的特征气候时段可概括为相对寒冷的黑暗时代冷期(简称DACP,大体位于400-600AD)、相对温暖的中世纪暖期(简称MWP,大体位于900-1400AD)、相对寒冷的小冰期(简称LIA,大体位于1500-1850AD)和20世纪异常温暖期。DACP的起止时间等目前仍有争议;MWP的争议在于它的全球性以及温暖程度,特别是它是否暖过20世纪后期;LIA是继MWP之后的一个冷期,全球大部分区域都有记录,但不同区域LIA的起始时间和温度变化幅度各不相同;20世纪异常温暖期指的是20世纪初(1920s)以来的气候变暖,目前的争论主要集中于它的驱动机制和影响因素。一般认为,过去2 000年来特征气候时段的形成可能与太阳活动、火山爆发和人类活动、温室气体增多和海气相互作用等因素有关。其中工业化(1860s)以前长时间尺度的气候主要受太阳和火山活动等的影响,工业化后的气候与温室气体的增多有关。未来对过去2 000年气候的研究,需要提高代用资料指示年代和区域气候信息的准确性,增加高分辨率、高精度代用资料,扩展研究区域,关注气候变化的全面性,发展气候模型进一步了解气候变化的规律和机制。Abstract: Temperature variations in the specific climatic periods of last 2000 years are helpful in understanding the modern climate status and its changing trend. So far four specific climatic periods have been widely identified for the period of last 2000 years, known as the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP, 400-600 AD), Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 900-1400 AD), Little Ice Age (LIA, 1500-1850 AD) and 20th Century Warm Period (1920s AD-present). Although there are numerous publications addressing the climate details of these periods, there remain hot debates. Studies on DACP indicate that its onset and ending time are still a matter of debate. The debate on MWP is concentrated in its geographic extent (i.e., global or local) and its magnitude of warmth, for example, whether it was warmer than the recent decades. The debate on LIA exists with its onset and ending time, and the temperature variation in different areas. The study of the 20th Century Warm Period is focused on its driving mechanism and influencing factors. It is generally recognized that the formation of these specific climate periods may be related to a series of factors, such as solar activities, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gas emissions, air-sea interactions, etc. It was highly believed that the decadal-scale temperature variations prior to industrialization period (1860s) were largely driven by solar irradiance and volcanism, while the late 20th century warming was closely related to the rapid increase in greenhouse gases. Future study on the climate of past 2000 years will focus on revealing an accurate temperature process by improving the accuracy of climatic proxies, increasing the resolution of proxy-based temperatures, expanding the representative areas, and developing climate models.
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Key words:
- past 2 000 years /
- climate change /
- special climatic periods
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