A study of the rainfall threshold of debris flow forewarning in Beijing based on susceptibility analysis
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摘要: 泥石流灾害合理的雨量预警阈值不仅与历史泥石流灾害发生时的降雨量有关，且与研究区域的气候、地形地貌、地质、植被等密切相关。论文采用雨场分割法和GIS技术研究了影响泥石流启动的降雨和地质背景两大因素，在对北京市泥石流灾害易发分区的基础上，结合北京地区已发生的82起泥石流的易发性分区和雨量值，提出了不同泥石流易发等级条件下的雨量预警阈值。研究成果已经在2015年7月17日北京房山区西区沟泥石流预警中成功应用，为泥石流区域预警预报提供了一种新的思路。Abstract: Reasonable rainfall threshold index is not only related to historical rainfall, but also affected by the regional climate, landform, geological deposition, vegetation, man-made activities and so on. These factors may fall into two categories: rainfall and environmental geological background. The method of definition of rainfall event can be used to calculate rainfall, which includes three aspects: antecedent precipitation, active rainfall and the maximum rainfall in one hour. The methods of RS and GIS are used in the assessment of the susceptibility of debris flows, concerning the slope, rock soil mass types, man-made activities, geological structure, and vegetation, etc. Using rainfall data collected during the occurrence of 82 debris flows from 1949, this paper puts forward a method of the rainfall thresholds obtained for various assessment of the susceptibility of debris flows. The results are used in the Xiqu Gully in Fangshan district of Beijing on July 17, 2015, illustrating that this method is reasonable and feasible. This paper analyzes the regional geological environment background and provides a new thread for the debris flow forewarning in mountain areas.
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