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镍资源产业链风险源识别与传播研究

Research on Risk Source Identification and Propagation in the Nickel Industry Chain

  • 摘要: 随着镍资源在新能源、航天和高端合金等领域的广泛应用,其重要性稳步提升。由于镍资源全球分布不均、地缘政治环境日益复杂,识别镍资源全球重要风险源并探究风险传播特征具有重要意义。本文从产业链视角出发,构建镍资源产业链的风险诱因和风险传播指标,从“风险诱因-风险传播”两个维度识别镍资源产业链的重要风险源,并利用传染病模型分析这些风险源对全球镍资源产业链各环节贸易的影响。研究结果表明:(1)镍资源产业链不同环节的风险存在显著的异质性,上游主要面临贸易主导型风险,下游主要面临贸易脆弱型风险。(2)从风险传播机制来看,镍资源产业链风险存在两种典型路径:在直接传播模式中,风险从源头国家直接快速地传播到大多数国家;在多轮传播模式中,主要通过具有影响力的贸易邻国实现风险传播。(3)恢复率对镍资源产业链不同环节的风险传播规模呈现出负向影响。

     

    Abstract: The importance of nickel resources has been steadily increased, driven by its extensive applications in fields such as new energy, aerospace, and high-end alloys. Given the uneven global distribution of nickel resources and the increasing complexity of the geopolitical landscape, it is important to identify the key global risk sources for nickel resources and explore their risk propagation characteristics. From an industrial chain perspective, this study developed a set of indicators to measure risk drivers and propagation within the nickel industrial chain. It identified the major risk sources within the nickel resource industrial chain from two perspectives: “risk generation factors” and “risk propagation ”. Additionally, this study employed an epidemic model to analyze the impact of these risk sources on the global nickel resource industrial chain. The findings reveal the following:(1) The different links of the nickel resource industrial chain exhibit significant heterogeneity in their risk profiles. Upstream sectors primarily face trade-dominant risks, while downstream sectors mainly face trade-vulnerable risks.(2) From the risk propagation mechanism perspective, there are two typical paths in the nickel resource industrial chain: in the direct propagation mode, risks will spread rapidly from the source country to most countries; in the multi-round propagation mode, nodes primarily achieve rapid risk propagation by influencing influential neighboring trading countries.(3) The recovery rate has a negative impact on the risk propagation scale across different links in the nickel resource industry.

     

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