Research on Risk Source Identification and Propagation in the Nickel Industry Chain

The importance of nickel resources has been steadily increased, driven by its extensive applications in fields such as new energy, aerospace, and high-end alloys. Given the uneven global distribution of nickel resources and the increasing complexity of the geopolitical landscape, it is important to identify the key global risk sources for nickel resources and explore their risk propagation characteristics. From an industrial chain perspective, this study developed a set of indicators to measure risk drivers and propagation within the nickel industrial chain. It identified the major risk sources within the nickel resource industrial chain from two perspectives: “risk generation factors” and “risk propagation ”. Additionally, this study employed an epidemic model to analyze the impact of these risk sources on the global nickel resource industrial chain. The findings reveal the following:（1） The different links of the nickel resource industrial chain exhibit significant heterogeneity in their risk profiles. Upstream sectors primarily face trade-dominant risks, while downstream sectors mainly face trade-vulnerable risks.（2） From the risk propagation mechanism perspective, there are two typical paths in the nickel resource industrial chain: in the direct propagation mode, risks will spread rapidly from the source country to most countries; in the multi-round propagation mode, nodes primarily achieve rapid risk propagation by influencing influential neighboring trading countries.（3） The recovery rate has a negative impact on the risk propagation scale across different links in the nickel resource industry.