This paper is the result of geological survey engineering.

Objective The widely distributed and complex genesis of saline soils in China deeply affects the sustainable development of regional ecosystems. Climate change and human activities exacerbate the ecological uncertainty of saline ecosystems in these regions. It is crucial to characterize the distribution of saline vegetation affected by climate change and human activities and explore potential distribution areas to maintain the ecological security of saline regions.

Methods In this study, the ecological niche model of T. chinensis, a typical saline vegetation, was established using the MaxEnt model optimized by the ENMeval package. Based on 371 T. chinensis distribution data and 13 environmental variables, the potential distribution areas of T. chinensis in different climate scenarios in the present and future were simulated. The key factors constraining the potential geographic distribution of T. chinensis in the present era were assessed through the contribution of variables and the Jackknife test. Ultimately, a quantitative assessment of the potential area and size at risk of T. chinensis was conducted.

Results (1) RM＝1.5 and FC=LQHPT are the optimal model parameters. The average value of AUC is 0.906±0.005, and the model prediction results have high credibility. The potentially suitable area of modern T. chinensis under the influence of environmental factors is 32.69×105 km², and the suitable area under the influence of human activities is 28.48×105 km². (2) The modern highly suitable area for T. chinensis is concentrated in Xinjiang, northeastern Gansu, western Inner Mongolia, northern Ningxia, southeastern Beijing, Tianjin, eastern Hebei, and northern Shandong. Mean annual temperature, coefficient of seasonal variation of temperature, alkalinity, distance from rivers, and average annual sunshine hours are the main environmental factors governing the distribution of T. chinensis. (3) Geographic range of tamarisk varies with time. The mean center of T. chinensis distribution under the future climate scenario moves towards southeastward, and Xinjiang, Gansu, western Inner Mongolia, northern Qinghai, western Hebei, and northern Shandong are stable and suitable areas for T. chinensis.

Conclusion As global warming intensifies and human activities continue to increase, this study is relevant to the conservation of T. chinensis under various climate scenarios in the future.