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青藏高原东缘地震滑坡影响因子重要性分析

Importance analysis of seismic landslide influencing factors on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

  • 摘要: 地震滑坡空间分布受多种因素影响,理清各因子对地震滑坡的影响程度,对其风险预测具有重要意义。然而,近年来的地震滑坡因子重要性研究多针对单个地震案例,难以揭示不同地震案例之间存在的总体性规律及差异。文章以青藏高原东缘为研究区,选取6个地震诱发滑坡案例,利用决定性指标(DC),量化分析了地震烈度、发震断层距、地质年代、非发震断层距、高程、坡度、坡向、地貌类型、年平均降水量、河流距离、土壤类型、植被类型、土地利用类型、道路距离等14个因子的绝对重要性,涵盖了地震、地质构造、地形地貌、气象水文、土壤植被、人类活动等6个类别的影响因素。研究表明:整体上,地震、地质构造、地形地貌、气象水文等4类因素对青藏高原东缘地震滑坡的重要性较高,土壤植被和人类活动因素的重要性较低;受地震规模等条件影响,不同案例的重要性因子存在差异:地震规模较大时,地震与地质构造因素更重要,地震规模较小时,地形与水文因素影响较大。研究充分考虑了地震滑坡及其影响因子数据集的一致性,采用绝对重要性方法,基于多案例进行了地震滑坡因子重要性的系统性分析,对地震滑坡风险预测与防范具有一定的参考价值。

     

    Abstract: The spatial distribution of seismic landslides is influenced by a wide range of factors. Understanding the relative importance of these factor is crucial for accurately predicting seismic landslide risks. However, most recently studies on factor importance have focused on individual earthquake events, making it difficult to identify overarching patterns and differences across multiple cases. This study focuses on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and analyzes six earthquake-induced landslide events. Using the decisiveness (DC), we quantitatively assessed the absolute importance of 14 influencing factors: seismic intensity, seismic fault distance, geologic age, non-seismic fault distance, elevation, slope, aspect, geomorphology type, average annual precipitation, river distance, soil type, vegetation type, land use type, and distance to roads. These factors are categorized into six groups: seismic, geo-tectonic, topographic-geomorphic, meteorological-hydrological, soil-vegetation, and human-activity. The results show that: overall, seismic, geo-tectonic, topographic-geomorphic, and meteorological-hydrological factors have a greater influence on seismic landslide occurence, whereas soil-vegetation and human-activity factors are less significant. Moreover, the importance of individual factors varies with earthquake magnitude: for larger-scale earthquakes seismic and geo-tectonic factors dominates; for smaller-scale earthquakes, topographic and hydrological conditions are more influential. By ensuring consistency in the landslide and influencing factor datasets and employing an absolute importance assessment approach across multiple cases, this study provides a systematic analysis of the key drivers of seismic landslides. The findings offer valuable insights for seismic landslide risk assessment and mitigation strategies.

     

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