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考虑孔隙水压力的滑坡位移预测方法研究

Research on landslide displacement prediction method considering pore water pressure

  • 摘要: 滑坡位移预测是防灾减灾的关键环节,降雨入渗直接影响滑坡体孔隙水压力分布,而孔隙水压力的动态变化会影响滑带土抗剪强度,是诱发滑坡的关键因素。针对传统滑坡位移预测模型对孔隙水压力耦合作用考虑不足的问题,文章提出了一种考虑孔隙水压力的滑坡位移预测方法,采用一维扩散模型计算孔隙水压力变化,引入孔隙水压力作为新影响因子,通过最大互信息系数法对各影响因子进行寻优,将筛选后的影响因子作为预测模型的输入数据,滑坡累计位移作为输出数据,采用中国甘肃省永靖县盐锅峡镇黑方台党川滑坡的GNSS实测数据进行试验。结果表明:孔隙水压力与滑坡位移之间具有强相关性,加入归一化孔隙水压力后,预测模型性能更优,在强降雨时期滑坡位移预测效果更好,均方根误差为2.9 mm,平均绝对误差为2.5 mm,拟合优度达0.995,为降雨型滑坡的精准预警提供了新思路。

     

    Abstract: Landslide displacement prediction is a critical component of disaster prevention and mitigation. Rainfall infiltration directly affects the distribution of pore water pressure within the landslide mass, and the dynamic variation of pore water pressure significantly influences the shear strength of slip zone soils, making it a key factor in landslide initiation. To address the limitations of traditional landslide displacement prediction models that inadequately consider the coupling effects of pore water pressure, this paper proposes a novel displacement prediction method that incorporates pore water pressure. A one-dimensional diffusion model is used to simulate the changes in pore water pressure. Pore water pressure is introduced as a new influencing factor, and the optimal set of the influencing factors is determined using the maximum mutual information coefficient method. The selected influencing factors served as inputs to the displacement prediction model, while cumulative landslide displacement is used as the output. The method is validated using GNSS monitoring data from the Dangchuan landslide in Heifangtai, Yanguoxia Town, Yongjing County, Gansu Province, China. Results show a strong correlation between pore water pressure and landslide displacement. Incorporating normalized pore water pressure into the model significantly improves prediction accuracy, especially during periods of intense rainfall. The model achieves an RMSE of 2.9 mm, an MAE of 2.5 mm, and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.995, providing a promising approach for the accurate early warning of rainfall-induced landslides.

     

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