Rocky desertification is a significant constraint on socio-economic development and ecological construction in Southwest China. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and future trends of rocky desertification in the Beipanjiang River Basin using the first, second, third, and fourth rocky desertification survey and monitoring datasets from the National Forestry and Grassland Administration. The Beipanjiang River, a major tributary of the Pearl River, originates in the Wumeng Mountains of Yunnan Province and traverses Guizhou Province. Characterized by significant topographical relief and extensive karst distribution, the Beipanjiang River Basin is a vital ecological functional area in Southwest China. This study aims to provide scientific support for regional ecological protection and rocky desertification control. Data from 2006 to 2022-including vegetation coverage, bare rock exposure rate, vegetation type, soil layer thickness, and rocky desertification degree-were analyzed with the use of “3S” technology (Remote Sensing, Geographic Information Systems, and Global Positioning Systems) alongside field surveys. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics were assessed through dynamic analysis methods, and future trends were predicted with the use of the Markov model.

Results show that from 2005 to 2021, vegetation coverage increased from 29.6% to 40.6%, the bare rock exposure rate decreased from 34.2% to 27.9%, and the proportion of rocky desertification land area shrank from 42.2% to 18.9%. Rocky desertification land was mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, where areas experiencing moderate and severe rocky desertification accounted for over 35% of the karst area. Predictions indicate that by 2026 and 2031, the extent of moderately and severely desertified land will decrease by 241.53 km² and 408.61 km², respectively. Over the past 15 years, rocky desertification has been effectively controlled, although some areas still experience instability and face the risk of deterioration. Future efforts, supported by policy measures, are expected to further improve the situation, despite ongoing challenges in severely affected regions. This study recommends to further strengthen ecological protection and restoration, increase financial and technological investment, and improve the dynamic monitoring and scientific evaluation system to support policy optimization. Additionally, further research is needed to understand the impact mechanisms of climate change on rocky desertification and explore new governance pathways adapted to climate change.