Creeping deformation characteristics and stability analysis of Guili large deep-seated landslide in Jiangda, Xizang
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摘要:
青藏高原东缘地质环境条件复杂，在内外动力耦合作用下该区域发育一系列大型—特大型深层滑坡，曾多次发生滑坡失稳堵江事件。位于西藏江达县的圭利滑坡为一大型深层古滑坡，滑坡空间结构特征复杂、变形强烈。在收集并分析资料的基础上，综合利用野外地质调查、遥感解译、无人机航测、InSAR形变监测、数值模拟等研究方法，对圭利滑坡几何特征和蠕滑变形特征进行分析，并揭示其成因和失稳机制。研究结果表明，圭利滑坡在平面上可划分为滑坡后缘区（Ⅰ）和滑坡堆积区（Ⅱ）两部分，其中滑坡堆积区可划分为局部稳定区（Ⅱ1）和前缘强变形区（Ⅱ2、Ⅱ3），根据成都理工大学团队钻探数据，钻探揭露的深层滑带埋深分别为64.02 m、57.90 m、54.13 m，滑坡体积约6.55×107m3。SBAS-InSAR监测数据表明，圭利滑坡目前处于蠕滑变形阶段，局部处于加速变形阶段，强烈变形区位于滑坡中前部，向后呈渐进变形破坏特征，地表最大形变速率可达−92.12 mm/a，滑坡体变形主要受降雨和河流侵蚀影响。数值模拟结果表明，天然工况下滑体位移变形量较小，稳定性较好；暴雨工况下圭利滑坡的前缘强变形区出现明显的变形迹象，可能发生失稳下滑，牵引后部堆积体发生滑动，为典型的牵引式蠕滑变形模式，下滑的堆积体可能堵塞金沙江，存在形成堵江−溃坝−洪水灾害链的风险。研究结果可为圭利滑坡防治提供有效参考，对大型深层滑坡稳定性评价具有一定理论和实际意义。
Abstract:The geological environment on the eastern edge of the Qinghai−Tibet Plateau is complex. Under the combined effects of internal and external forces, this region has witnessed the development of a series of large to super−large deep−seated landslides, leading to multiple instances of landslide−induced river blockages. The Guili landslide, located in Jiangda County, Xizang, is a large−scale deep−seated landslide characterized by complex spatial structure and intense deformations. This study, based on data collection and analysis, comprehensively utilized research methods such as field geological surveys, remote sensing interpretation, unmanned aerial vehicle aerial surveys, InSAR deformation monitoring, and numerical simulation to analyze the geometric and creep deformation characteristics of the Guili landslide and elucidate its origin and instability mechanism. In the view, it can be divided into two parts: the trailing edge of the landslide area (Ⅰ) and the landslide stacking area (Ⅱ). The landslide stacking area can be further divided into a local stabilization zone (Ⅱ1) and a strongly deformed zone at the leading edge (Ⅱ2 and Ⅱ3). The volume of the landslide is approximately 6.55 × 107 m3, with revealed depths of the deep slip zone from drilling being 64.02 m, 57.90 m, and 54.13 m. Based on SBAS−InSAR monitoring data, the Guili landslide is currently in a stage of overall creeping deformation, with localized areas experiencing accelerated deformation. The highly deformed zone at the front edge of the Guili landslide exhibits progressive deformation and surface maximum deformation rate of up to −92.12 mm/a. Deformation of the landslide slope is primarily influenced by rainfall and river erosion. Numerical simulation results indicate that under natural conditions, the displacement and deformation of the sliding mass are relatively small, indicating good stability. However, under heavy rainfall conditions, the strong deformation zone at the leading edge of the Guili landslide shows obvious signs of deformation, and may be destabilized and sliding, pulling the back of the pile body sliding, which is a typical traction creep−slip deformation mode, and the sliding pile body may block the Jinsha River, and there is the risk of forming a disaster chain of blocking the river − dam failure − flooding. These research findings can provide valuable insights for coping with large−scale deep−seated landslide disasters and hold theoretical and practical significance for stability assessment of such landslides.
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表 1 圭利滑坡模拟计算主要参数
Table 1. The main parameters of simulation calculation of Guili landslide
岩性 饱和渗透系数/（m·s−1） 天然容重/（kN·m−3） 饱和容重/（kN·m−3） 粘聚力/kPa 内摩擦角/° 弹性模量/kPa 泊松比 滑坡堆积体1 2e-5 19.5 20 40 35 24000 0.31 滑坡堆积体2 3.5e-6 18.6 19.2 25 33 22000 0.33 含砾滑带土 4e-7 18 18.3 14 14 5000 0.3 断层破碎带 - 22 - 50 24 180000 0.21 基岩 - 24 - 60 26 200000 0.2 
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