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摘要:
研究目的 查明金沙江流域泥石流空间分布特征并开展危险性评价，可以为横断山区泥石流区域分异规律研究和防灾减灾提供数据支撑和科学依据。
研究方法 结合野外调查和GIS空间分析，获得了金沙江流域干流及主要支流的2551个泥石流流域，并基于泥石流活动特征开展泥石流危险性评价，通过ROC检验及空间聚类分析，完成了金沙江流域泥石流危险性区划。
研究结果 ①金沙江流域上游段泥石流并不活跃，以低中频为主，高频泥石流主要分布在下游段，尤以元谋—巧家段发育最为集中；②最有利于泥石流灾害形成的因素为：15°~35°坡度、地震分布最密集、软硬相间的碎屑岩组；③金沙江流域内中—高危险泥石流占比为47.48%，接近一半；④东川—巧家段的高危险区聚集度高，与活跃断层高度重合，物源丰富，基本受活跃断层控制。
结论 金沙江流域泥石流高危险区集中在下游段，研究获得的危险性区划图可为水力水电、交通廊道等工程开发建设中规避泥石流风险、制定防灾减灾措施提供参考依据。
Abstract:Objective This study investigates the distribution characteristics of debris flow in Jinsha River and conducts a hazard assessment to provide data support and a scientific basis for understanding regional variations in debris flow and disaster prevention in the Hengduan Mountain area.
Methods Based on the field investigation and GIS spatial analysis, 2551 debris flows in the Jinsha River were identified. Hazard assessment was performed based on the activity characteristics of these debris flows. Using ROC analysis and spatial clustering, the debris flow hazard zoning in the Jinsha River was established.
Results ① Debris flows in the upper reaches of Jinsha River are not active, predominantly of low to medium frequency, while high−frequency debris flows are concentrated in the lower reaches, especially between Yarmou and Qiaojia. ② The primary factors influencing debris flow formation include slopes ranging from 15° to 35°, frequent seismic activity, and the presence of both soft and hard clastic rocks. ③ Medium− and high−hazard debris flows cover 47.48% of the area, nearly half of the studied region. ④ The high−hazard zone in the Dongchuan−Qiaojia section shows high concentration, closely correlating with active faults and abundant sediment supply, largely controlled by tectonic activity.
Conclusions High−hazard debris flow zones are concentrated in the downstream of Jinsha River. The hazard zoning map provides a reference for risk mitigation in hydropower development and transportation infrastructure planning.
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Key words:
- debris flow /
- hazard /
- activity characteristics /
- Jinsha River
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图 2 典型泥石流遥感影像（a，b）和野外照片（c，d）（a中红色虚线为泥石流堆积扇形界线；b中红色线区域为泥石流流域边界线，填充红色斑块为影像解译的物源分布）
Figure 2.
表 1 不同类型泥石流判断矩阵
Table 1. Judgment matrix of different types of debris flow
类型 高频粘性 高频其他 中频 低频其他 低频稀性 高频粘性 1 1/2 1/3 1/4 1/5 高频其他 2 1 1/2 1/3 1/4 中频 3 2 1 1/2 1/3 低频其他 4 3 2 1 1/2 低频稀性 5 4 3 2 1 
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表 2 不同类型泥石流赋权
Table 2. Weighting of different types of debris flow
类型 高频粘性 高频其他 中频 低频其他 低频稀性 权重 0.4147 0.2617 0.1592 0.1112 0.0532
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表 3 金沙江流域危险性评价指标权重计算结果
Table 3. Calculation results of hazard assessment index weight in Jinsha River
指标类型 指标分级 W+ W- 坡度/° <15 −0.2584 0.1111 15~25 0.0267 −0.0127 25~35 0.1361 −0.0498 35~45 0.2931 −0.0314 >45 0.2957 −0.0041 地形湿度指数 −1.5~1.7 0.0906 −0.0732 1.7~3.5 −0.0492 0.0276 3.5~6.2 −0.0589 0.0081 6.2~10.1 −0.1495 0.0092 10.1~21.1 −0.7136 0.0070 超额地形 0~24.8 −0.0763 0.2835 24.8~89.4 0.2293 −0.0361 89.4~188.8 0.3742 −0.0221 188.8~352.7 0.3962 −0.0074 352.7~1266.9 0.2313 −0.0008 地震核密度 0~0.001297111 0.0293 −0.0294 0.001297111~0.003175686 −0.3275 0.0805 0.003175686~0.005322628 0.0358 −0.0164 0.005322628~0.007782666 0.1065 −0.0173 0.007782666~0.011405632 0.1712 −0.0238 工程地质岩组 第四系松散堆积物，以阶地
砾石、砂土、粘土层，冰川、
湖河沉积等为主−0.1340 0.0073 较坚硬的混杂岩 −0.4497 0.0006 坚硬的基性岩组-以辉长岩-
玄武岩类为主0.0775 −0.0092 坚硬的酸性岩岩组-以花岗岩-
流纹岩类为主−0.7802 0.0299 坚硬的中性岩岩组，以
闪长岩、正长岩为主−1.5029 0.0066 较坚硬的变质岩组，以
大理岩、变砂岩、板岩为主0.1633 −0.0318 较坚硬的碳酸盐岩组-以
厚层—块状灰岩、白云岩为主0.0303 −0.0124 较软的变质岩组-以片岩、
千枚岩、麻粒岩为主0.2320 −0.0129 较软的火山碎屑岩组，以
火山角砾岩、凝灰岩为主−0.1125 0.0026 软硬相间的碎屑岩组-以砾岩、
砂岩、粉砂岩、泥质岩为主−0.0693 0.0433 夏季平均降雨量/mm <120 −0.6345 0.1710 120~140 0.0247 −0.0084 140~160 0.2603 −0.0747 160~180 0.3329 −0.0943 180~200 −1.8302 0.0005
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表 4 金沙江流域泥石流危险性评价结果
Table 4. Statistics of debris flow hazard assessment results in Jinsha River
危险区划 研究区面积/km2 占比/% 泥石流面积/km2 占比/% 低危险区 46013.32 26.19 11098.34 23.28 较低危险区 46269.74 26.33 11464.50 24.05 中危险区 40670.51 23.15 10829.46 22.72 较高危险区 31226.54 17.77 9430.22 19.78 高危险区 11528.89 6.56 4849.47 10.17
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