Identification of Nitrate Sources and Main Controlling Factors in Shallow Groundwater Based on MixSIAR and Random Forest Model
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摘要:
作为全球水资源中最普遍的污染物，NO3−主控因素和来源的识别对NO3−污染控制至关重要。本研究基于人体健康风险、随机森林模型、同位素和MixSIAR模型等方法，分析了华州区浅层地下水NO3−分布特征和潜在风险，揭示了浅层地下水NO3−的重要因素和主要来源。结果表明：华州区浅层地下水NO3−浓度呈西高东低趋势分布，西南部尤为显著，NO3−浓度高达271mg/L。主要控制NO3−浓度的指标依次为：EC＞ORP＞Ca2+＞Mg2+＞T＞TDS＞HCO3−。NO3−来源以土壤氮和粪肥及污水为主，且粪便及污水对NO3−含量贡献率最大（63.8%），其次是土壤氮（19%）和化肥（12.7%）。长期饮用研究区NO3−浓度较高的浅层地下水对人类健康具有潜在风险，特别是儿童，其HHRA评估风险值高达7.904。
Abstract:As the most common pollutant in global water resources, the identification of the main controlling factors and sources of NO3− is crucial to the control of NO3− pollution. Based on methods such as human health risk model, random forest model, isotope and MixSIAR model, this study analyzed the distribution characteristics and potential risks of shallow groundwater NO3− in Huazhou District, and revealed the main controlling factors and main sources of shallow groundwater NO3−. The results show that the shallow groundwater NO3− concentration in Huazhou District is high in the west and low in the east, especially in the southwest. The NO3− concentration is as high as 271 mg/L. The main factors controlling NO3− concentration being EC＞ORP＞Ca2+＞Mg2+＞T＞TDS＞HCO3−. The main sources of NO3− are soil nitrogen and manure & sewage. The manure & sewage contributes the most to the NO3− content (63.8%), followed by soil nitrogen (19%) and chemical fertilizer (12.7%). Long-term drinking of shallow groundwater with high NO3− concentration in the study area has potential risks to human health, especially for children, whose HHRA assessment risk is as high as 7.904.
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表 1 模型中使用的双同位素值（Jin et al., 2023）
Table 1. Dual isotope values used in the model
来源 平均值δ15N 标准差δ15N 平均值δ18O 标准差δ18O 大气沉降 −3.7 1.5 77.4 4.8 土壤氮 6.4 0.6 −6.2 0.4 化肥 −2.1 0.7 −4.1 2.7 粪肥及污水 17.4 3.9 6.1 1.6 
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表 2 HHRA中用于评估浅层地下水硝酸盐污染潜在风险的参数
Table 2. Parameters used to assess the potential risk of shallow groundwater nitrate in HHRA
参数 单位 成人 儿童 引用文献 IR摄入率 L/day 1.5 0.7 （吉玉洁，2022） ED暴露持续时间 days 365 365 EF暴露频率 Year 32 12 （Wang et al., 2022） BW平均体重 kg 60 15 （Wu et al., 2020） AT平均暴露时间 days 11680 4380 （Wang et al., 2022） RfDNO3− mg/kg/day 1.6 1.6 （USEPA, 2001）
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表 3 浅层地下水水化学参数统计
Table 3. Statistics of the hydrochemical parameters of shallow groundwater
指标 单位 最大值 最小值 平均值 样品数量 pH / 8.39 7.81 8.08 37 TDS mg/L 2612 180 647.95 37 ORP mV 852 −97 93.54 37 Na+ mg/L 211 9.2 50.2 37 K+ mg/L 25.7 0.82 5.59 37 Ca2+ mg/L 321 28.1 114.76 37 Mg2+ mg/L 243 2.43 27.85 37 Cl− mg/L 355 4 59.24 37 HCO3− mg/L 1062 97.6 351.61 37 SO42− mg/L 624 19.2 123.51 37 NO3− mg/L 271 ＜2.0 68.46 37 δ15N-NO3− ‰ 40.28 −1.61 10.83 32 δ18O-NO3− ‰ 22.56 −10.12 5.60 32
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表 4 浅层地下水NO3−经口服摄入的潜在风险值
Table 4. Potential risk value of oral ingestion of shallow groundwater NO3−
HQoral 2023旱季 2018旱季
（Wang et al., 2022）2013旱季
（Wu et al., 2016）成人 儿童 成人 儿童 成人 儿童 最大值 4.234 7.904 7.975 14.887 13.34 24.89 最小值 0.031 0.058 0.126 0.236 0.04 0.07 平均值 0.817 1.525 1.141 2.129 1.44 2.69
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