SUSCEPTIBILITY EVALUATION OF LANDSLIDE HAZARD IN XINGSHAN COUNTY OF HUBEI PROVINCE BASED ON WEIGHTS-OF-EVIDENCE METHOD
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摘要:
以三峡库区湖北省兴山县为例，综合分析历史滑坡数据及其孕灾因素，采用证据权法对县域进行滑坡地质灾害易发性评价.首先应用ArcGIS软件，提取高程、坡度、坡向、坡面曲率、断层、工程地质岩组、水系、植被指数评价因子图层，并按照评价因子各分级频率比划分证据层；其次，采用证据权法分别计算各证据层的权重及后验概率；然后将各证据层后验概率进行叠加，生成滑坡易发性分区图；最后，使用分位数回归法将研究区按滑坡易发程度分为极高、高、中、低易发区4类.采用成功率曲线法对证据权法评价精度进行验证，本次评价的精度为86.1%，表明评价效果较好.该评价方法及结果可为地方地质灾害"风险双控"提供技术依据.
Abstract:Taking Xingshan County of Hubei Province in the Three Gorges reservoir region as an example, the paper comprehensively analyzes the historical landslide data and inducing factors, and evaluates the landslide susceptibility based on the weights-of-evidence method. First, ArcGIS is used to extract the evaluation factor layers including elevation, slope gradient, aspect, curvature, fault, engineering geological rock group, water system and vegetation index, and divide the evidence layer according to the frequency ratio of each evaluation factor. Secondly, the weights-of-evidence method is adopted to calculate the weight and posterior probability of each evidence layer. Then the posterior probability of each evidence layer is superimposed to generate the landslide susceptibility zoning map. Finally, the study area is divided with the quantile regression method into extremely high, high, medium and low risk areas in terms of landslide susceptibility degree. The evaluation accuracy of 86.1% for the method verified by receiver operating characteristic curve indicates that the evaluation effect is good, which can provide technical basis for risk control of local geological disasters.
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Key words:
- GIS /
- landslide /
- susceptibility evaluation /
- weights-of-evidence /
- geological hazard /
- Hubei Province
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表 1 兴山县各乡镇滑坡统计表
Table 1. Statistics of landslides by towns in Xingshan County
乡镇 面积/km2 滑坡/处 占比/% 古夫镇 446 84 16.09 昭君镇 145 125 23.95 峡口镇 217 132 25.29 南阳镇 276 33 6.32 黄粮镇 245 49 9.39 水月寺镇 464 31 5.94 高桥乡 173 51 9.77 榛子乡 361 17 3.25 合计 2327 522 100.00 
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表 2 不同工程地质岩类中滑坡灾害发育程度统计
Table 2. Statistics of landslide development degree by engineering geological rocks
工程地质岩组 松散土类(Ⅰ) 层状碎屑岩岩类(Ⅱ) 层状碳酸盐岩岩类(Ⅲ) 层状变质岩岩类(Ⅳ) 块状岩浆岩岩类(Ⅴ) 合计 Ⅰ1 Ⅱ1 Ⅱ2 Ⅲ1 Ⅲ2 Ⅲ3 Ⅳ1 Ⅴ1 滑坡数 5 365 61 6 34 135 16 0 522
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表 3 各评价指标的相关性
Table 3. Correlation of evaluation indexes
评价指标 高程 坡度 坡向 坡面曲率 断层 工程地质岩组 水系 植被指数 高程 1.0000 坡度 -0.0112 1.0000 坡向 -0.0185 -0.0339 1.0000 坡面曲率 -0.0772 -0.0052 -0.0007 1.0000 断层 0.1372 0.0327 -0.0240 -0.0066 1.0000 工程地质岩组 0.2902 0.0194 0.0649 0.0005 -0.1635 1.0000 水系 0.5208 -0.1232 0.0081 -0.0239 0.0835 0.0120 1.0000 植被指数 0.5694 0.1511 -0.2397 -0.0118 0.1014 0.1267 0.2791 1.0000
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表 4 滑坡易发性权重计算表
Table 4. Weight calculation results of landslide susceptibility
指标 证据层 证据权栅格数 W+ W- Ci 高程/m ≤ 500 10845 2.0814 -0.8842 2.9656 (500, 1000] 4970 -0.0287 0.0116 -0.0403 (1000, 1500] 1582 -1.6188 0.5135 -2.1324 > 1500 128 -3.1455 0.1786 -3.3241 坡度/(°) ≤ 10 1180 0.0940 -0.0065 0.1005 (10, 40] 15569 0.1865 -0.8562 1.0427 (40, 50] 694 -1.3267 0.1212 -1.4479 > 50 82 -2.4129 0.0490 -2.4618 坡向/(°) ≤ 60 2273 -0.1999 0.0335 -0.2334 (60, 160] 4215 -0.1381 0.0480 -0.1862 (60, 240] 4654 0.2132 -0.0671 0.2803 (240, 320] 4913 0.1788 -0.0618 0.2406 (320, 360) 1470 -0.2748 0.0294 -0.3042 坡面曲率 ≤ -6 4 2.4038 -0.0183 2.4221 (-6, -2] 348 3.0194 -3.0230 6.0423 (-2, 2] 16712 -3.5830 2.2110 -5.7940 (2, 4] 435 -3.5015 0.0490 -3.5505 > 4 26 -1.8361 0.0079 -1.8440 断层缓冲区/m ≤ 100 2100 0.0816 -0.0087 0.0903 (100, 200] 1753 0.0054 -0.0005 0.0059 (200, 300] 1505 -0.2060 0.0154 -0.2214 (300, 400] 1098 -0.2997 0.0190 -0.3188 (400, 500] 897 -0.1199 0.0069 -0.1268 > 500 10175 -0.0651 0.0977 -0.1628 工程地质岩组 Ⅰ1 3 1.7227 -0.0138 1.7365 Ⅱ1 291 1.4083 -0.6715 2.0798 Ⅱ2 9798 0.9548 -0.1116 1.0664 Ⅲ1 2824 -2.1775 0.0573 -2.2348 Ⅲ2 124 -0.2692 0.0170 -0.2862 Ⅲ3 905 -1.0507 0.5983 -1.6490 Ⅳ1 3417 -1.9259 0.0587 -1.9846 Ⅴ1 169 -1.5374 0.0362 -1.5736 水系缓冲区/m ≤ 200 4629 0.8198 -0.1253 0.9451 (200, 400] 3376 0.5127 -0.0526 0.5653 (400, 600] 2080 0.1496 -0.0119 0.1615 (600, 800] 1386 1.6854 -0.3577 2.0431 > 800 6055 -0.7256 0.8270 -1.5526 植被指数 ≤ 0.5 874 2.2267 -0.1043 2.3311 (0.5, 0.6] 1924 2.9235 -0.3874 3.3108 (0.6, 0.7] 5843 1.2310 -0.3462 1.5772 (0.7, 0.8] 6465 -1.0023 0.3240 -1.3263 (0.8, 1] 2424 -1.2556 0.5155 -1.7711
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表 5 滑坡灾害易发性分区栅格与面积比例表
Table 5. Grid numbers and area percentages of different landslide risk areas
易发性分区 栅格数/个 面积/km2 面积比例/% 发育滑坡/处 点密度/(个/km2) 极高易发区 149903 135 5.82 219 1.62 高易发区 158833 143 6.17 156 1.09 中易发区 254639 229 9.89 74 0.32 低易发区 2011297 1820 78.12 73 0.04
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