Safety Evaluation of Iron Ore in China Based on Entropy Weight Method
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摘要:
从资源、产业、环境、市场四个维度出发，建立了中国铁矿石安全综合评价指标体系，采用熵权法对2000-2015年中国铁矿石安全状况进行定量评价。资源安全和市场安全指数在21世纪初期整体呈下降趋势；产业安全指数对铁矿石的安全的影响起初较小，后快速上升；环境安全程度在2005年以前快速降低，之后逐渐升高；铁矿石的安全状况在资源安全、环境安全、产业安全、市场安全的综合作用下，2000-2009年，铁矿石安全综合指数呈波动下降的趋势；2009-2015年，铁矿石安全综合指数在波动中略有上升，但仍处于临界不安全状态。为提高中国铁矿石的供应安全，不仅要强化勘探开发、节约和再生铁矿资源以增强本国资源供应能力，还应加强合作，强化全球矿产资源布局。
Abstract:Based on the four dimensions of resource, industry, environment and market, this paper established the comprehensive evaluation index system of iron ore in China, and integrated the entropy weight method and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS)method to quantitatively evaluate the safety situation of iron ore in China from 2000 to 2015. Resource security index and market safety index showed downward trends as a whole during the studied period. The impact of industrial safety index on the safety of iron ore was initially small and then increased rapidly. The environmental safety index declined rapidly before the year 2005 and was followed by a positive impact on the safety of iron ore. The comprehensive security situation of iron ore showed a downward trend in 2000-2009 while increased slightly in the volatility in 2009-2015, but still in a critical state of insecurity. To guarantee the safety situation of iron ore in China, the domestic iron ore supply must be improved by intensifying geological exploration and saving resources, and the international cooperation and global resources layout should also be intensified.
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Key words:
- China /
- iron ore /
- safety evaluation /
- entropy weight method
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表 1 矿产资源安全评价值判断标准[32]
Table 1. Evaluation standard for the safety evaluation of mineral resources
极端不安全 严重不安全 中度不安全 轻度不安全 濒临不安全 0~0.09 0.10~0.19 0.20~0.29 0.30~0.39 0.40~0.49 勉强安全 初级安全 中级安全 良好安全 优质安全 0.50~0.59 0.60~0.69 0.70~0.79 0.80~0.89 0.90~1.00 
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表 2 熵权法各指标权重表
Table 2. The index weights for safety evaluation based on entropy weight method
总目标 第一指标层 第二指标层 总权重 指标 权重 指标 权重 铁矿石安全评价 储采比 0.531 3 0.182 6 资源安全 0.343 6 单位GDP铁矿石消费量 0.181 9 0.062 5 人均铁矿石消费量 0.286 7 0.098 5 吨铁综合能耗 0.257 7 0.071 9 环境安全 0.279 2 能源消费中电力占比 0.238 1 0.066 5 废钢回收占粗钢比例 0.504 3 0.140 8 本国资源生产能力 0.226 6 0.057 5 产业安全 0.253 6 营业利润率 0.336 7 0.085 4 劳动生产率 0.436 7 0.110 7 铁矿石价格 0.252 3 0.031 2 市场安全 0.123 7 主要进口国控制度 0.320 9 0.039 7 对外依存度 0.426 8 0.052 8
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表 3 各年度评价值表
Table 3. The list of values for safety evaluation
年份 资源安全 环境安全 产业安全 市场安全 总绩效值 2000 0.833 6 0.649 8 0.063 6 0.825 2 0.586 1 2001 0.846 2 0.433 1 0.080 9 0.782 8 0.529 1 2002 0.757 9 0.327 3 0.074 5 0.748 6 0.463 3 2003 0.695 5 0.177 6 0.189 0 0.717 6 0.425 3 2004 0.665 2 0.174 9 0.389 5 0.600 1 0.450 4 2005 0.517 7 0.150 5 0.543 7 0.781 3 0.454 5 2006 0.387 3 0.305 0 0.540 5 0.713 5 0.444 8 2007 0.372 3 0.360 7 0.715 9 0.659 0 0.491 7 2008 0.389 8 0.417 6 0.809 6 0.602 3 0.530 3 2009 0.267 2 0.424 3 0.548 8 0.418 0 0.401 1 2010 0.280 5 0.457 6 0.744 6 0.427 7 0.465 9 2011 0.235 8 0.475 0 0.843 0 0.533 4 0.493 4 2012 0.217 9 0.610 0 0.736 1 0.410 7 0.482 6 2013 0.158 3 0.494 0 0.690 5 0.488 5 0.426 2 2014 0.167 1 0.794 6 0.545 1 0.267 1 0.450 5 2015 0.104 7 0.817 4 0.328 9 0.132 3 0.363 9
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