A multifactor coupled rarly-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards based on the dynamic evolutionary process of disaster
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摘要:
长输油气管道不可避免地要穿越地质环境条件复杂的山区，遭受各类地质灾害威胁。滑坡灾害是最为严重的地质灾害之一。为了实现管道滑坡灾害的提前预判，通常设定多项监测预警指标进行监测，但是，由于忽略了各指标之间的关联性，导致大量的错报与误报。本文通过对管道滑坡灾害动态演化过程分析，提出了管道滑坡灾害动态演化的4个阶段：①滑坡区降雨，地表入渗；②地下水位上升，坡体自重增加，岩土力学参数降低；③坡体产生局部变形；④滑坡整体失稳下滑作用于管道。提取了灾害变形、外界诱发因素、管道应力应变3种类型监测关键指标，构建了管道滑坡灾害监测指标体系，在此基础之上，提出基于灾害动态演化过程的管道滑坡灾害多因素耦合预警模型。该模型通过综合考虑灾害变形指标、外界诱发指标、管道力学指标之间的耦合关系，构建出了多维度预警等级判据。模型在贵州某天然气管道滑坡开展示范应用，先后成功发布蓝色、黄色、红色预警信息，为滑坡的应急处置与抢险提供了充足的响应时间，保障了管道的运营安全。该模型避免了因降雨过多即发出高预警等级的问题，进一步提高了预警准确度，使得预警结果更符合实际，可以为管道滑坡灾害的监测预警工作提供一定的参考与借鉴。
Abstract:Long oil and gas pipelines inevitably cross mountainous regions with complex geological environment and are threatened by various geological disasters, the most severe of which is landslides. To achieve early-warning of pipeline landslide hazards, multiple monitoring and early-warning indicators are typically established. However, the failure to account for the correlation between various indicators has led to a high frequency of false alarms. Based on the analysis of the dynamic evolutionary process of pipeline landslide hazards, this study proposes four stages of pipeline landslide hazards: (1) rainfall on the landslide leads to surface infiltration; (2) the groundwater level rises increasing the slope self-weight increases and reducing the geotechnical parameter; (3) the slope has undergone local deformation; (4) the landslide slides entirely and threatens pipeline safety. Three key monitoring indicators of landslide hazard deformations, external induced indicators, and pipeline stress-strain were extracted to construct a monitoring index system for pipeline landslide hazards. On this basis, a multifactor coupled early-warning model for pipeline landslide hazards is proposed. This model integrates the relationships between landslide deformation indicators, external triggers, and pipeline mechanical responses, creating a multidimensional early-warning criterion. This early-warning model was applied in a natural gas pipeline landslide in Guizhou Province, and successfully issued blue, yellow, and red early-warning information, providing sufficient time for emergency response and rescue of the landslide, ensuring the safe operation of the pipeline. This model can avoid the problem of high early-warning levels due to excessive rainfall, further improving the accuracy of pipeline landslide hazards early-warning and making the early-warning results more realistic. This study can provide a valuable reference for the monitoring and early-warning work on pipeline landslide hazards.
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表 1 各类别指标级别划分标准
Table 1. Classification standards for indicators of various categories
指标分级 灾害变形指标 外界诱发指标 管道力学指标 蓝色级 Xblue≤X＜Xyellow Yblue≤Y＜Yyellow Zblue≤Z＜Zyellow 黄色级 Xyellow≤X＜Xred Yyellow≤Y＜Yred Zyellow≤Z＜Zred 红色级 X≥Xred Y≥Yred Z≥Zred 注： Xblue、Xyellow、Xred分别为灾害变形指标蓝色级、黄色级、红色级阈值； Yblue、Yyellow、Yred分别为外界诱发指标蓝色级、黄色级、红色级阈值； Zblue、Zyellow、Zred分别为管道力学指标蓝色级、黄色级、红色级阈值。 
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表 2 一维预警模型
Table 2. One-dimensional early-warning model
预警等级 灾害变形指标 外界诱发指标 管道力学指标 蓝色预警 Xblue≤X＜Xyellow Yblue≤Y＜Yyellow Zblue≤Z＜Zyellow 黄色预警 Xyellow≤X＜Xred Yyellow≤Y＜Yred Zyellow≤Z＜Zred 红色预警 X≥Xred Y≥Yred Z≥Zred
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表 3 二维预警模型组合矩阵
Table 3. Combining-matrix of two-dimensional early-warning model
预警等级 各类指标组合矩阵 蓝色预警 （X，Y） （蓝，蓝）、（蓝，黄）、（蓝，红） （X，Z） （蓝，蓝）、（黄，蓝） （Y，Z） （蓝，蓝）、（黄，蓝）、（红，蓝） 黄色预警 （X，Y） （黄，蓝）、（黄，黄） （X，Z） （红，蓝）、（蓝，黄） （Y，Z） （蓝，黄）、（黄，黄） 红色预警 （X，Y） （黄，红）、（红，蓝）、（红，黄）、（红，红） （X，Z） （黄，黄）、（红，黄）、（蓝，红）、（黄，红）、（红，红） （Y，Z） （红，黄）、（蓝，红）、（黄，红）、（红，红） 注：如某一类型指标达到以上区间级别，另一指标未达到，未达到的指标按照最低分级取，以满足以上判别。
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表 4 三维预警模型组合矩阵
Table 4. Combining-matrix of three-dimensional early-warning model
预警等级 各类别指标级别组合矩阵 蓝色预警 （蓝，蓝，蓝）、（蓝，黄，蓝）、（蓝，红，蓝）、（黄，蓝，蓝）、（黄，黄，蓝） 黄色预警 （黄，红，蓝）、（红，蓝，蓝）、（红，黄，蓝）、（红，红，蓝）、（蓝，蓝，黄）、（蓝，黄，黄）、（蓝，红，黄）、（黄，蓝，黄）、（黄，黄，黄） 红色预警 （黄，红，黄）、（红，蓝，黄）、（红，黄，黄）、（红，红，黄）、（蓝、蓝、红）、（蓝，黄，红）、（蓝，红，红）、
（黄，蓝，红）、（黄，黄，红）、（黄，红，红）、（红，蓝，红）、（红，黄，红）、（红，红，红）注：括号里自左至右依次表示灾害变形指标、外界诱发指标、管道力学指标对应的指标分级；如某一类或两类指标达到以上区间级别，有指标未达到，未达到的指标按照最低分级取，以满足以上判别。
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表 5 滑坡预警规则
Table 5. Landslide early-warning rules
指标类别 指标分级 蓝色级 黄色级 红色级 灾害变形
指标地表位移量/（mm） 30 80 150 防护工程倾斜量/（°） 0.5 1 2 切线角/（°） [45,80） [80，85） ≥85 外界诱发
指标降雨持续时间与
雨强组成的点F=1.15、F=1.05
拟合曲线之间F=1.05、F=1
拟合曲线之间F=1
拟合曲线之上
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