Geological disaster risk assessment based on ecological niche model: A case study of Longhui County, Shaoyang City
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摘要:
地质灾害风险评价是地质灾害防治的重要手段。针对湖南省邵阳市隆回县城镇化建设引发的大量崩滑流地质灾害，为采取有效的防治措施，从地形地貌、地质构造、岩土体工程地质、人类工程活动等致灾因素方面选取13个评价因子，采用最大熵物种分布模型（MaxEnt模型）建立地质灾害危险性评价模型。从人口分布、经济背景、环境资源开发、防灾减灾能力等方面选取7个评价因子，利用系统聚类分析模型建立地质灾害易损性评价模型。综合两者的评价结果，构建研究区地质灾害风险评价模型，并将研究区划分为极低风险区、低风险区、中风险区、高风险区、极高风险区。研究结果表明：（1）在危险性评价中最大熵物种分布模型ROC的AUC值为0.918，表明模型在研究区地质灾害危险性预测中适用性较好；（2）陡坎、年平均降雨量、坡度、岩土体建造是影响研究区地质灾害发育主要的评价因子；（3）极高-高风险区面积为194.70 km2，占研究区总面积的6.80%，现有减灾能力条件下极高-高风险区的面积降低了30.38%，减灾效果较好，为隆回县地质灾害风险提供一种新的评价方法，并为政府的风险管理策略提供理论参考。
Abstract:Geological disaster risk assessment is crucial for the prevention and control of geological disasters. This study focuses on the significant number of geological disasters induced by urbanization construction in Longhui County, aiming to propose effective preventive and control measures. The study considered various disaster-inducing factors and selected 13 assessment criteria from topography and geomorphology, geological structure, engineering geology of geotechnical bodies, and human engineering activities. The MaxEnt model is employed to establish the geological disaster hazard assessment model, while 7 assessment factors are selected from population distribution, economic background, environmental resources development, disaster prevention, and mitigation capacity. The systematic cluster analysis model was then utilized to establish a geological disaster vulnerability assessment model. The results of both assessments were integrated to construct a comprehensive geological disaster risk assessment model for the region, classifying areas into extremely low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and extremely high risk. The result show that the AUC value of the MaxEnt model in the hazard assessment is 0.918, indicating its strong applicability in predicting the geological disaster hazard risk in the study area. Steep canyon, average annual rainfall, slope, and geotechnical construction are identified as the main factors influencing the development of geological disasters in the study area. The area classified as extremely high to high risk covers is 194.70 km², accounting for 6.80% of the total area. Under existing disaster reduction capacity, the area with extremely high to high risk has been reduced by 30.38%, reflecting a positive impact on disaster reduction. This study introduces a novel method for the risk assessment of geological disasters in Longhui County and provides a theoretical basis for the government’s risk management strategy.
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Key words:
- geological disasters /
- MaxEnt model /
- systematic cluster analysis model /
- hazard /
- vulnerability /
- risk assessment
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表 1 地质灾害危险性分区统计表
Table 1. Geological disaster zoning statistics
危险性
等级栅格
数量/个各等级
面积/km2面积
占比/%灾害点
数量/个灾害点
占比/%灾积比 极低 1102959 996.103 34.74 14 6.31 0.182 低 867889 781.100 27.24 14 6.31 0.232 中 619650 557.685 19.45 24 10.81 0.556 高 375322 337.790 11.78 65 29.28 2.486 极高 216697 195.027 6.80 105 47.30 6.955 
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表 2 研究区各乡镇易损性评价因子
Table 2. Vulnerability assessment factors for each town in the study area
乡镇 H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 虎形山瑶族乡 140.845 10.842 0.181 0.00011 0.125 2.132 弱 鸭田镇 286.955 16.813 0.273 0.00354 0.040 2.688 弱 罗洪镇 289.877 12.231 0.299 0.00017 0.062 1.806 弱 羊古坳镇 426.478 31.142 0.323 0.00086 0.049 2.830 弱 南岳庙镇 356.873 12.500 0.276 0.00166 0.044 2.391 弱 七江镇 401.064 8.535 0.287 0.00134 0.038 2.856 较弱 小沙江镇 131.465 12.821 0.128 0.00011 0.223 2.341 较弱 麻塘山乡 133.450 14.412 0.146 0.00021 0.243 2.638 较弱 大水田乡 98.898 12.522 0.104 0.00068 0.170 2.438 较弱 荷田乡 262.137 10.598 0.178 0.00095 0.037 1.755 较弱 西洋江镇 315.639 8.607 0.212 0.00496 0.030 1.737 较弱 北山镇 263.664 11.747 0.284 0.00515 0.040 2.312 较弱 山界回族乡 362.163 28.278 0.325 0.00003 0.021 1.558 较弱 金石桥镇 271.976 3.877 0.227 0.00490 0.100 2.202 中 司门前镇 271.812 4.369 0.215 0.00560 0.048 2.213 中 高坪镇 361.363 3.150 0.286 0.00273 0.044 2.068 中 六都寨镇 289.302 3.977 0.198 0.00943 0.049 2.501 中 横板桥镇 376.186 7.177 0.294 0.00998 0.112 2.590 中 荷香桥镇 378.725 5.631 0.272 0.00727 0.024 1.803 中 滩头镇 309.045 3.666 0.305 0.00770 0.057 2.587 较强 岩口镇 240.378 3.597 0.217 0.00377 0.051 1.990 较强 周旺镇 297.469 14.647 0.286 0.01244 0.093 2.925 较强 三阁司镇 423.705 9.555 0.318 0.00844 0.076 3.120 较强 桃花坪街道 1043.569 2.392 0.274 0.09696 0.042 2.631 强 花门街道 955.751 2.863 0.336 0.12386 0.107 2.554 强
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表 3 乡镇（街道）减灾能力评估指标权重
Table 3. Weights of indicators for assessing the disaster reduction capacity of towns （streets）
一级指标 一级指标权重 二级指标 二级指标权重 灾害管理能力 0.4 队伍管理能力 0.34 风险评估能力 0.33 财政投入能力 0.33 灾害备灾能力 0.3 物资储备能力 0.60 医疗保障能力 0.40 自救转移能力 0.3 自救互救能力 0.34 公众避险能力 0.33 转移安置能力 0.33
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表 4 乡镇（街道）减灾能力等级
Table 4. Disaster reduction capacity levels of towns (streets)
减灾能力指数值 [μ+1.5δ，1] [μ+0.5δ，μ+1.5δ） [μ−0.5δ，μ+0.5δ） [μ−1.5δ，μ-0.5δ） [0，μ−1.5δ） 等级 强 较强 中 较弱 弱 注：μ——评估区域乡镇（街道）减灾能力指数的均值；δ——评估区域乡镇（街道）减灾能力指数的标准差。
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