Attribution analysis of water-sediment variation under the influence of climate change and human activities in the Kuye River Basin
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摘要:
流域水沙情势演变归因是水文地质学的研究重点之一。为了深入理解窟野河流域水沙变化规律，并为水资源管理和生态保护提供科学依据，以应对气候变化和人类活动的影响，基于水文、气象、归一化植被指数、土地利用等数据信息，运用累积量斜率变化率分析法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、双累积曲线法、累积距平法、滑动秩和检验法等方法，定量研究气候变化和人类活动综合作用下流域水沙变化趋势及其影响归因。结果表明：（1）窟野河流域1956—2019年的年径流量、年输沙量呈显著减少趋势，年径流量和年输沙量平均每年减少约0.104×108 m3和0.027×108 t，突变年为1997年，通过了5%显著性水平检验；（2）1998—2011年间，气候变化和人类活动对流域年径流量减少的贡献率分别为36.06%和63.94%，对年输沙量减少的贡献率分别为26.11%和73.89%，其中径流量减少主要与退耕还林还草工程导致的植被、土地利用/覆被变化有关；（3）以1998—2011年为基准期，2012—2019年累积径流量斜率变化率高达109%，径流量反弹明显，可能与矿井封存水外溢有关，同时，累积输沙量斜率接近零，输沙量无显著变化，说明研究区土壤侵蚀得到有效控制。研究成果为窟野河流域水文预测与管理提供科学依据，未来需重点关注生态恢复和煤炭开采活动对水资源变化的复合影响。
Abstract:The attribution of the evolution of water and sediment in a river basin is an important theoretical issue in hydrogeology. To understand the change patterns of water and sediment in the Kuye River Basin and provide scientific basis for water resources management and ecological protection under the impacts of climate change and human activities, based on hydrological and meteorological observation data, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), and land use change data, this study quantitatively analyzed the trends of water and sediment changes in the basin and their attributed influences using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, double mass curve method, cumulative anomaly analysis, sliding rank-sum test, and cumulative quantity slope change rate analysis. The results indicate that from 1956 to 2019, the annual runoff and sediment yield in the Kuye River Basin showed a significant decreasing trend, with an average annual decrease of approximately 10.4 million m3 and 2.7 million tons. The abrupt change year was 1997, verified by the 95% significance level test. From 1998 to 2011, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the decrease in annual runoff were 36.06% and 63.94%, respectively. The contribution rates to the decrease in sediment transport were 26.11% and 73.89%, respectively. The decrease in runoff is mainly related to vegetation and land use/cover changes caused by the Grain for Green Program. Using 1998—2011 as the base period, the cumulative slope change rate of runoff reached 109% during 2012—2019. It indicates a significant rebound in runoff, possibly related to the overflow of mine sealing water. The cumulative slope of sediment yield approached 0, indicating no significant change in sediment yield and effective control of soil erosion in the study area. The analysis method of slope change rate of cumulative quantity has good applicability and provides scientific basis for hydrological prediction and management in the Kuye River basin. In the future. It is necessary to pay more attention to the combined effects of ecological restoration and coal mining activities on water resources change.
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表 1 年径流量、输沙量、降水量和年均气温、年最大NDVI值的Mann-Kendall趋势检验结果
Table 1. Mann-Kendall trend test results of annual runoff, sediment transport, precipitation, air temperature, and NDVI
水文站 年径流量Z值 年输沙量Z值 年降水量Z值 年均气温Z值 年最大NDVI的Z值 温家川 −5.887 −6.471 1.606 5.179 6.587 
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表 2 1995—2020年土地利用类型转移矩阵
Table 2. Land-use transfer matrix from 1995 to 2020
/km2 时间 土地利用类型 高覆盖度草地 耕地 工矿用地 居民地 林地 水域 未利用土地 中低覆盖度草地 1995—2010年 高覆盖度草地 325.44 76.87 0.00 0.16 10.19 1.63 2.45 40.48 耕地 5.57 1411.23 0.00 1.17 3.13 7.57 2.47 67.98 工矿用地 18.17 11.85 1.54 0.77 6.57 2.95 5.43 68.26 居民地 6.16 36.61 0.01 76.81 4.96 4.18 1.53 21.29 林地 28.45 67.27 0.00 0.16 282.60 9.65 5.56 105.25 水域 2.48 3.03 0.07 0.10 2.56 193.41 7.62 21.37 未利用土地 7.99 10.25 0.01 0.04 1.55 10.10 270.93 182.93 中低覆盖度草地 323.57 133.90 0.21 1.17 21.67 27.10 66.42 4630.83 2010—2020年 高覆盖度草地 407.07 4.40 4.38 6.95 6.86 0.56 1.25 55.93 耕地 2.74 1323.52 6.94 19.61 5.36 3.89 1.88 81.66 工矿用地 18.31 66.92 59.43 6.68 25.66 22.10 33.56 324.93 居民地 5.39 2.47 0.82 98.63 1.34 0.46 0.33 9.01 林地 2.27 3.84 3.41 3.03 434.47 1.27 1.53 25.61 水域 0.77 3.60 1.08 2.71 1.38 196.18 3.36 8.18 未利用土地 1.27 2.03 5.02 0.66 2.89 1.28 421.18 143.57 中低覆盖度草地 19.21 91.82 34.43 13.18 20.79 4.70 20.61 4554.07
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表 3 窟野河流域各变化期累积年径流量、年输沙量、年降水量、年平均气温、年最大NDVI的斜率及变化率
Table 3. Accumulated annual runoff, sediment load, precipitation, air temperature, and NDVI slope change rate in each variation period of the Kuye River Basin
时期 时段 年累积径流量 年累积输沙量 累积年降水量 累积年平均气温 累积年最大NDVI S ΔS ΔS/S S ΔS ΔS/S S ΔS ΔS/S S ΔS ΔS/S S ΔS ΔS/S A1—B A1（1969—1997年） 5.79 −4.13 −0.71 0.91 −0.86 −0.95 381.90 −20.26 −0.05 7.13 1.34 0.19 0.21 0.05 0.24 B（1998—2011年） 1.66 0.05 361.64 8.47 0.26 A2—B A2（1980—1997年） 5.14 −3.48 −0.68 0.77 −0.72 −0.94 394.76 −33.12 −0.08 7.30 1.17 0.16 0.21 0.05 0.26 B—C C（2012—2019年） 3.47 1.81 1.09 0.00 479.27 117.63 0.33 8.56 0.09 0.01 0.31 0.05 0.19 注： S为斜率；ΔS为斜率变化量；ΔS/S为斜率变化率。
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表 4 窟野河流域气候变化和人类活动对径流量和输沙量变化的贡献率
Table 4. Contribution rates of climate change and human activities to changes in runoff and sediment load in the Kuye River Basin
计算方案 年径流量 年输沙量 仅考虑降水/% 综合考虑降水和气温/% 仅考虑降水/% 综合考虑降水和气温/% A1—B时期 A2—B时期 B—C时期 A1—B时期 A2—B时期 B—C时期 A1—B时期 A2—B时期 A1—B时期 A2—B时期 气候变化 7.44 12.39 29.83 33.79 36.06 28.86 5.60 8.97 25.42 26.11 年降水量 7.44 12.39 29.83 7.44 12.39 29.83 5.60 8.97 5.60 8.97 年平均气温 — — — 26.35 23.67 −0.97 — — 19.82 17.14 人类活动 92.56 87.61 70.17 66.21 63.94 71.14 94.40 91.03 74.58 73.89 年最大NDVI 33.38 38.97 −17.78 33.38 38.97 −17.78 25.11 25.46 25.11 25.46
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