Rapid risk assessment of loss of life in dammed lakes: A case study of the Shiping landslide in the Minjiang River Basin
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摘要:
堰塞湖溃决具有突发性、冲击力大、影响范围广等特点，严重威胁下游群众生命财产安全，快速评估堰塞湖溃决可能造成的生命损失，对应急决策、应急疏散等应急响应工作具有重要的指导意义。为达到及时、快速和准确评估的目的，文章构建了一套基于简化参数的堰塞湖溃决生命损失快速评估方法体系，分别从堰塞坝稳定性、溃决洪水峰值流量、溃决洪水演进、洪水生命损失4个模块进行分析和计算，并利用白格滑坡堰塞湖溃决事件进行验证，准确率达到65%。在此基础上，选取岷江流域堵江风险较高的石坪滑坡为预测分析对象，通过文章提出的方法体系评估了堰塞坝的稳定性，计算了全溃条件下的洪水峰值流量及其洪水演进，划定了洪水风险对汶川县城威州镇造成的影响范围，预测了洪水可能造成的失踪人口或死亡人口。案例计算结果显示，在部分报警情况下，石坪滑坡堰塞湖溃决将造成威州镇人口损失约753 人，需加强监测预警、应急预案和应急疏散演练等防灾减灾备灾工作降低灾害风险。通过堰塞湖溃决生命损失快速评估方法体系的建立，可以为堰塞湖灾害的防灾减灾规划和应急处置与决策提供依据。
Abstract:Dammed lakes are characterized by suddenness,high impact and wide range of influence, which seriously threaten the lives and properties of people downstream. Rapid assessment of the potential loss of life is of great significance for emergency decision-making, emergency evacuation and other emergency response activities. In order to achieve timely, rapid and accurate assessment, this paper constructs a system of rapid assessment methods for barrier lake breaching loss of life based on simplified parameters, analyzing and calculating four modules respectively, barrier body stability, outburst flood peak, failure flood evolution and loss of life, and validating them using the Baige Dammed Lakes event with an accuracy rate of 65%. On this basis, the Shiping landslide, which has a high risk of river blockage in the Minjiang River Basin, was selected for prediction and analysis. The stability of the barrier body was assessed through the methodological system proposed in this paper, the peak flood flow under full breach conditions and its flood evolution were calculated, the impact range caused by the flood risk on the Wenchuan County town of Weizhou was delineated, and the possible missing or dead population caused by the flood was predicted. The results of the case calculations show that under partial alarm conditions, the Shiping landslide barrier lake breaching will result in a loss of population of approximately 753 people in Weizhou town, and that disaster prevention, mitigation and preparedness work such as monitoring and early warning, emergency planning and emergency evacuation drills need to be strengthened to reduce disaster risk. A basis for disaster prevention and mitigation planning and emergency response and decision-making for Dammed Lakes can be provided through the establishment of this rapid assessment method system for loss of life.
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Key words:
- dammed lakes /
- outburst flood /
- loss of life /
- rapid assessment /
- Minjiang River
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表 1 快速评估方法体系计算参数一览表
Table 1. List of calculation parameters for the rapid assessment methodology system
序号 参数名称 符号 单位 数据来源 所属模块 1 控制流域面积 Ab km2 水文资料、地形图或影像图 （1） 2 堰塞坝高度 Hd m 地形测量 （1） 3 堰塞坝体积 Vd m3 根据坝高和河道地形估算 （1） 4 溃决洪水峰值流量 Qp m3·s−1 根据溃口深度和宽度计算 （2） 5 溃口深度 h m 经验值或计算工况设定 （2） 6 溃口宽度 b m 经验值或Froehlich[14]估算值 （2） 7 堰塞湖库容 Vm1 107 m3 根据坝高和河道地形估算 （2） 8 距坝趾L/m断面的最大演进流量 QLM m3·s−1 李斯特万公式计算 （3） 9 堰塞湖库容 W m3 根据坝高和河道地形估算 （3） 10 坝趾最大流量 Qm m3·s−1 白世录[15]经验公式计算 （3） 11 控制断面距坝趾的距离 L m 根据地图数据测量 （3） 12 经验系数 VK — 山区VK=7.15；半山区 VK=4.76；平原VK=3.13 （3） 13 水力坡降计算参数 αi — αi=100i，i为河道平均水力坡降 （3） 14 洪水断面的水位高度 hi m 严容[16]公式估算值 （3） 15 洪水断面距离坝址的长度 Li km 根据地图数据测量 （3） 16 溃决洪水演进传播时间 T h 根据洪水断面距离坝址的长度计算 （3） 17 经验系数 k — 山区 k=1.1～1.5 （3） 18 洪水期断面最大平均流速 Vm2 m·s−1 洪水期断面最大平均流速，可采用历史最大值，无资料山区可采用3.0～5.0 m/s （3） 19 风险人口数量 PAR 人 根据人口统计数据和淹没建筑面积计算 （4） 20 人口密度 ρ 人/m2 人口统计数量除以建筑总面积计算 （4） 21 淹没建筑面积 A m2 根据演进计算结果划定淹没建筑范围 （4） 22 修正后风险人口死亡率建议值 f — 根据fo进行修正系数计算 （4） 23 风险人口死亡率建议值 f0 — 根据具体情况选定死亡率建议值[17] （4） 24 溃坝程度系数 α — 根据Pi、θi、hj、wj计算 （4） 25 修正系数 β — β= 1.4 （4） 26 直接影响因素权重系数 k1 — k1=0.75 （4） 27 间接影响因素权重系数 k2 — k2=0.25 （4） 28 m1影响程度建议值 Pi — 根据PAR、SD、WT、UD 4方面结果查表[18] （4） 29 m1影响程度权重值 θi — 查看权重数值表[18] （4） 30 m2影响程度建议值 hj — 根据风险人口中青壮年比例、溃坝时间、距坝距离、坝高、库容等6方面情况查表[18] （4） 31 m2影响程度权重值 wj — 查看权重数值表[18] （4） 32 风险人口死亡数量 fs 人 根据风险人口数量和风险人口死亡率建议值计算 （4） 
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表 2 白格堰塞湖基本参数
Table 2. Basic parameters of the Baige weir
日期 坝高/m 库容/
（108 m3）垭口
高程/m堰塞坝
体积/（104 m3）控制流域
面积/km211月3日 110 7.75 2966 3020 173484
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表 3 白格堰塞湖溃决至丽江市的洪水计算结果
Table 3. Flood calculations for the Baige weir outburst to Lijiang City
地点 Li/km QLM/（m3·s−1） hi/m T/h 丽江市 565 6585.95 2.81 24.15
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表 4 石坪滑坡堰塞湖1/3溃决洪水演进计算结果（汶川县威州镇境内）
Table 4. Calculation of the evolution of the 1/3 breaching of the Shiping landslide weir
断面 Li/km QLM/（m3·s−1） Hi/m T/h 洪水淹没宽度/m 1 11.2 4362.17 36.41 0.48 277 2 11.7 4349.53 35.39 0.50 545 3 12.2 4336.97 34.44 0.52 639 4 12.7 4324.48 33.55 0.54 502 5 13.2 4312.06 32.72 0.56 577 6 13.7 4299.71 31.94 0.59 313 7 14.2 4287.43 31.20 0.61 294 8 14.7 4275.22 30.51 0.63 296 9 15.2 4263.08 29.85 0.65 212 10 15.7 4251.01 29.23 0.67 286 11 16.2 4239.01 28.64 0.69 367 12 16.7 4227.08 28.08 0.71 599 13 17.2 4215.21 27.55 0.74 467 14 17.7 4203.41 27.04 0.76 549 15 18.2 4191.68 26.55 0.78 566 16 18.7 4180.01 26.09 0.80 407 17 19.2 4168.40 25.65 0.82 342 18 19.7 4156.86 25.22 0.84 340 19 20.2 4145.39 24.81 0.86 386 20 20.7 4133.97 24.42 0.88 481 21 21.2 4122.62 24.05 0.91 193 22 21.7 4111.34 23.68 0.93 331 23 22.2 4100.11 23.34 0.95 257 24 22.7 4088.94 23.00 0.97 429 25 23.2 4077.84 22.68 0.99 450 26 23.7 4066.79 22.37 1.01 399 27 24.2 4055.81 22.06 1.03 267 28 24.7 4044.88 21.77 1.06 238 29 24.9 4040.53 21.66 1.06 257
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表 5 石坪滑坡堰塞湖1/3溃决洪水不同报警程度下的生命损失（汶川县威州镇境内）
Table 5. Life losses under different alarm levels of the one-third breach flood of the Shiping landslide dam lake (within the jurisdiction of Weizhou Town, Wenchuan County)
编号 名称 距坝址距离/km 人口 无报警死亡人口 部分报警死亡人口 充分报警死亡人口 1 雁门乡 11.2 6535 1592 425 53 2 雁门乡过街楼村 12.7 750 183 49 6 3 威州镇郭主铺村 19.2 1173 286 76 10 4 威州镇凤坪坝村 20.0 300 73 19 2 5 威州镇沙窝子村 20.9 690 168 45 6 6 威州镇新桥村 21.8 400 97 26 3 7 七盘沟村 22.7 1476 360 96 12 8 威州镇新桥村木兰组 23.7 270 66 18 2 总计 11594 2824 753 94
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FAN Jihui, CHENG Genwei, ZHANG Yan, et al. The problems and suggestions about hydropower cascade exploitation in the upper reaches of Minjiang River［J］. China Water Kesources, 2005（10）: 47 − 49. （in Chinese with English abstract） doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1123.2005.10.017
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