Risk assessment of single gully debris flows based on dynamic changes of provenance in the Wenchuan earthquake zone: A case study of Qipan gully
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摘要:
“5•12”汶川特大地震后，震区山体表面产生大量碎屑物，植被遭到严重破坏，为泥石流暴发提供了极为丰富的物质来源，大大增加了泥石流的危险性。多年来，研究人员针对震后泥石流危险性的评估主要考虑植被恢复情况，较少考虑泥石流沟道存在大量的动储量物质对危险性评估的重要影响。为此，基于现场勘察资料，以汶川县七盘沟为研究对象，采用多源多尺度监测手段（Landsat系列、Quick-bird与无人机）对震前震后坡面物源与沟道物源进行分析统计，综合利用博弈论组合赋权结合云模型构建泥石流危险性动态评价模型，对2005—2019年泥石流暴发的危险性进行评价。结果表明：震后坡面物源是震前的7.7倍，到2019年坡面物源已基本恢复至震前水平。经相关资料记载震后泥石流暴发冲出量及清淤工程量进行统计估算可知，到2019年泥石流动态物源减少约7.813×106 m3。相对比只考虑坡面物源，分别考虑坡面和沟道物源对危险性评价所取得的结果，更切合现实。所得结果对在日益增加的高烈度山区开展重要工程所遭受的单沟泥石流危险性动态评价提供参考与借鉴作用，有效保护人民的生命和财产安全。
Abstract:Following the catastrophic “5•12” Wenchuan earthquake, extensive debris was deposited on mountain surfaces in the earthquake zone, and significant vegetation damage occurred, providing abundant material for debris flow outbreaks and substantially increasing their risk. Previous studies primarily focused on vegetation recovery when assessing post-earthquake debris flow risks. However, field surveys revealed that large quantities of dynamic storage materials in the gullies significantly impact risk assessments. Based on field survey data, this study uses Qipan gully in Wenchuan County as a research subject and employs multi-source and multi-scale monitoring tools (Landsat series, Quick-bird, and UAVs) to analyze and statistically assess the source materials on slopes and gullies both pre- and post-earthquake. A dynamic risk assessment model for debris flow is constructed using game theory combined with a cloud model, assessing the risk from 2005 to 2019. Findings indicate that post-earthquake slope material sources were 7.7 times those pre-earthquake, and by 2019, with recovery to pre-earthquake levels by 2019. Statistical estimations based on recorded debris flow eruptions and sediment removal volumes show a reduction of approximately 7.813×106 m3 in dynamic material sources by 2019. Assessing both slope and gully material sources yields more realistic results than considering slope sources alone. These results provide references and guidance for dynamic risk assessments of debris flow, impacting major engineering projects in increasingly seismic regions and effectively ensuring the safety of life and property.
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Key words:
- Wenchuan earthquake /
- debris flow /
- provenance changes /
- combined weighting method /
- cloud model /
- risk assessment
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表 1 七盘沟流域的历史泥石流事件[26]
Table 1. Historical debris-flow events in the Qipan gully watershed, Wenchuan, China
日期 降雨强度/mm 泥石流
类型峰值流量
/（m3·s−1）持续时间
/min泥石流冲出量
/（104 m3）72 h 24 h 1 h 10 min 1933 — — — — 黏性 150 — — 1961-07-06 99.5 79.9 — — 75 60 13.5 1964-07-23 48.3 41.7 — 1.2 稀性 65 50 9.1 1965-07-16 69.5 41.2 — — 65 50 9.9 1970-07-28 56.5 33.0 — — 60 60 5.8 1971-07-24 79.4 53.4 — — 62 45 8.4 1975-07-29 — 32.5 9.6 3.8 81 40 9.8 1977-07-07 — 39.4 7.6 1.6 黏性 65 30 5.8 1978-07-15 79.5 66.7 36.4 17.0 稀性 90 50 13.5 1979-08-15 48.0 30.8 — 6.1 42 30 3.8 1980-07-26 — — — 4.4 65 20 5.4 1981-08-12 — 53.8 9.5 2.1 90 25 6.7 1983-07-19 — 31.3 8.1 1.7 黏性 50 15 2.3 2013-07-11 109.6 54.3 6.4 — 1745 30 78.2 2017-07-05 — 18.6 — — — — 18.5 2018-08-22 — 33.4 — — — — 11.5 2019-08-20 — 28.1 — — — — 15 注：“—” 指数据缺失。 
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表 2 七盘沟泥石流危险性因子评价标准及实际值转换
Table 2. Risk assessment criteria and actual value conversion for debris flow factors in Qipan gully
评价指标 极低危险（Ⅰ） 较低危险（Ⅱ） 中等危险（Ⅲ） 较高危险（Ⅳ） 极高危险（Ⅴ） X1 0～25 25～50 50～100 100～250 250～ 1000 X2 0～10 10～20 20～30 30～40 40～60 X3 0～1 1～5 5～10 10～100 100～700 X4 0～5 5～10 10～20 20～100 100～150 X5 0～25 25～50 50～75 50～100 100～500 X6 0～0.5 0.5～5 5～15 15～35 35～70 X7 0～1 1～2 2～5 5～10 10～50 X8 0～0.2 0.2～0.5 0.5～0.7 0.7～1.0 1.0～6.0 X9 0～2 2～5 5～10 10～20 20～100 X10 80～100 80～60 60～40 20～40 0～20 X11 80～100 80～60 60～40 20～40 0～20 X12 0.8～1 0.6～0.8 0.4～0.6 0.2～0.4 0～0.2 X13 0.8～1 0.6～0.8 0.4～0.6 0.2～0.4 0～0.2 X14 0～20 20～50 50～100 100～200 200～ 3000 注：X12[37]：新修（Ⅰ）；1/3库容（Ⅱ）；2/3库容（Ⅲ）；淤满（Ⅳ）;未修（Ⅴ）。X13[38]：坝基、坝肩、坝体、溢流口未发生损毁， 排水孔不堵塞（Ⅰ）；坝基未被淘蚀， 坝肩、坝体、溢流口有较少部分发生损毁，排水孔不堵塞（Ⅱ）；坝基未被淘蚀， 坝肩、坝体、溢流口有较少部分发生损毁，排水孔堵塞较少（Ⅲ）；坝基被淘蚀，坝体、坝肩发生损毁，排水孔较少部分未堵塞（Ⅳ）；极差 坝基被严重淘蚀，坝肩、坝体破坏严重，排水孔全部堵塞（Ⅴ）。
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表 3 七盘沟泥石流样本实测值
Table 3. Measured value of debris flow samples in Qipan gully
样本 X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 2005 75 34 5 20 26 54.2 15.2 3.04 2.12 60 0.4 0 0 90 2008 574 26 8 22 34 54.2 15.2 3.04 2.12 18 0.09 0 0 65 2011 157 32 8 24 38.3 54.2 15.2 3.04 2.12 24 0.15 0 0 135 2013 581 54 78.2 25 54.3 54.2 15.2 3.04 2.12 13 0.17 0 0 135 2018 149 37 11.5 27 33.4 54.2 15.2 3.04 2.12 34 0.30 0.6 0.8 165 2019 114 33 15 28 28.1 54.2 15.2 3.04 2.12 57 0.37 0.6 0.7 185
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表 4 2005—2019年七盘沟泥石流危险性评价结果
Table 4. Risk assessment results of debris flow in Qipan gully, 2005—2019
年份 危险性评价值 危险级别 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ 2005 0.0009 0.0046 0.2282 0.1015 0.0237 中等危险 2008 0.0002 0.0126 0.0489 0.0011 0.1572 极高危险 2011 0.0019 0.0019 0.0752 0.1430 0.0936 较高危险 2013 0.0001 0.0002 0.0245 0.1327 0.1657 极高危险 2018 0.0235 0.1280 0.0000 0.2366 0.0006 较高危险 2019 0.0007 0.3534 0.0084 0.1210 0.0005 较低危险
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