Basic characteristics and susceptibility evaluation of geological hazards in Shifang City, Sichuan Province
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摘要:
大比例尺地质灾害精细化调查评价工作正逐渐开展，现有易发性评价成果与实际情况有出入，如何精准得到区域地质灾害易发性成果值得探究。文章以什邡市为例，基于斜坡单元逐坡开展现场调查工作并不断修正，依托调查成果进行主成分、相关性、多重共线性分析筛选出10个评价因子，通过信息量-逻辑回归模型对比分析栅格单元、斜坡单元易发性评价成果，最后以现场调查数据修编斜坡单元易发性评价结果。主要结论如下：（1）什邡市地质灾害整体规模较小，易发性整体上受曲率、植被覆盖率、道路影响最为明显；（2）栅格单元合理性及精度（AUC=0.876）均高于斜坡单元，但结果整体割裂琐碎难以运用，斜坡单元则存在高易发区较多及精度较差（AUC=0.825）的问题；（3）依托现场调查对斜坡单元易发性分区进行修编，得到高易发区面积占13.48%，中易发区面积占15.31%，低与非易发区面积占71.21%，降低了管控难度，精度与现场调查成果相吻合。研究成果及评价流程可指导当地风险管控工作，为同类型研究提供参考。
Abstract:The fine-scale investigation and evaluation of large-scale geological disasters are gradually being carried out. However, there are discrepancies between the existing susceptibility evaluation results and actual work. Exploring how to accurately obtain the susceptibility results of regional geological disasters is worth investigating. Taking Shifang City as an example, this study conducted field investigations based on slope units and continuously revised them. Based on the survey results, ten evaluation factors were selected through principal component analysis, correlation analysis and multicollinearity analysis. The information-logistic regression model is used to compare and analyze the susceptibility evaluation results of grid units and slope units. Finally, the susceptibility results of slope units were revised based on field survey data. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The overall scale of geological disasters in Shifang City is relatively small, and susceptibility is mainly influenced by curvature, vegetation coverage, and roads. (2) The rationality and accuracy of grid units (AUC = 0.876 ) are higher than those of the slope unit. However, the results of grid units are fragmented and difficult to apply, while slope units have more high susceptibility areas and poor accuracy (AUC = 0.825). (3) Based on the field investigation, the susceptibility zoning of slope unit is revised. The proportions of high susceptibility, medium susceptibility, and low/non-susceptibility areas are 13.48%, 15.31%, and 71.21%, respectively, reducing the difficulty of control and matching the accuracy of field investigation results. The research results and evaluation process can guide local risk control work and provide references for similar studies.
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表 1 什邡市地质灾害规模分布
Table 1. Scale distribution of geological disasters in Shifang City
/处 灾害类型 灾害规模 合计 大型 中型 小型 滑坡 0 16 213 229 崩塌 7 13 56 76 泥石流 0 16 56 72 
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表 2 KMO和巴特利特检验
Table 2. KMO and Bartlett tests
KMO 取样适切性量数 0.764 巴特利特球形度检验 10195.041 10115.699 91 91 0 0
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表 3 评价因子相关性分析
Table 3. Correlation analysis of evaluation factors
指标 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N A 1 B −0.404 1 C 0.434 −0.151 1 D 0.796 −0.354 0.281 1 E 0.194 −0.137 0.0341 0.079 1 F 0.582 −0.276 0.838 0.374 0.407 1 G −0.401 0.318 −0.537 −0.273 −0.35 −0.566 1 H −0.625 0.724 −0.326 −0.406 −0.283 −0.482 0.396 1 I 0.709 −0.053 0.495 0.491 0.253 0.601 −0.361 −0.454 1 J 0.515 −0.276 0.952 0.334 0.436 0.871 −0.668 −0.445 0.517 1 K 0.261 −0.224 0.107 0.26 0.130 0.172 −0.281 −0.291 0.241 0.188 1 L −0.019 0.001 −0.033 −0.015 0.055 −0.019 −0.218 0.009 0.008 −0.024 0.063 1 M −0.513 0.925 −0.244 −0.400 −0.190 −0.384 0.378 0.807 −0.247 −0.37 −0.232 0.012 1 N 0.698 −0.29 0.391 0.700 0.160 0.424 −0.291 −0.528 0.696 0.377 0.291 −0.015 −0.353 1 注：A为工程岩组；B为距道路距离；C为地表粗糙度；D为地震动峰值加速度；E为NDVI；F为地形起伏度；G为地形湿度指数；H为距断层距离；I为高程；J为坡度；K为坡向；L-坡形；M-距河流距离；N-年均降雨量（下同）。
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表 4 多重共线性诊断
Table 4. Multicollinearity diagnosis
序号 评价因子 VIF TOL 1 距道路距离 3.020 0.331 2 地表粗糙度 1.774 0.564 3 地震动峰值加速度 2.166 0.462 4 NDVI 1.234 0.810 5 地形湿度指数 1.813 0.551 6 距断层距离 3.536 0.283 7 高程 2.963 0.338 8 坡向 1.184 0.845 9 坡形 1.096 0.913 10 年均降雨量 3.132 0.319
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表 5 评价因子信息量
Table 5. Summary table of Evaluation factor information
评价指标 二级分类 灾害点
个数/个灾害点
密度/（个·km−2）信息量 评价指标 二级分类 灾害点
个数/个灾害点
密度/（个·km−2）信息量 距道路距离/m 0～200 190 3.518 1.080 高程/m <700 7 0.0267 −2.414 200～400 71 1.577 0.278 700～900 124 0.7889 0.971 400～600 33 0.857 −0.332 900～ 1100 158 0.6503 0.778 600～800 37 1.154 −0.034 1100 ～1300 67 0.3590 0.184 800～ 1000 19 0.755 −0.458 1300 ～1500 17 0.1050 −1.045 > 1000 27 0.223 −1.677 > 1500 4 0.0159 −2.933 地震动峰值
加速度/g0.15 79 0.8093 −0.390 坡向 北 39 1.3838 0.147 0.2 298 1.3684 0.135 西北 31 1.3946 0.155 地表粗糙度 0～0.066 137 1.131 −0.054 东 67 1.4851 0.218 0.066～0.172 159 1.626 0.309 东北 58 1.6423 0.318 0.172～0.299 67 0.932 −0.248 平面 12 0.2457 −1.581 0.299～0.818 14 0.562 −0.754 南 58 1.3973 0.157 NDVI −0.528～0.416 14 0.594 −0.695 东南 66 1.3593 0.129 0.416～0.798 109 1.474 0.213 西南 25 0.9471 −0.232 0.798～0.923 254 1.160 −0.027 西 21 1.0790 −0.102 地形湿度指数 0～5 183 1.197 0.002 年均
降雨量/mm<600 13 1.111 0.025 5～10 148 1.631 0.312 600～800 224 1.182 −0.011 10～15 33 0.740 −0.478 800～ 1000 140 1.224 −0.072 >15 13 0.475 −0.922 1000 ～1200 1 0.0794 −2.711 距断层距离/m 0～ 1000 162 1.105 −0.078 1200 ～1400 109 1.1585 −0.031 1000 ～2000110 1.699 0.352 > 1400 183 1.4356 0.184 2000 ～3000 43 1.584 0.283 坡形 凸型坡 13 1.111 0.025 3000 ～4000 47 2.539 0.754 平面坡 224 1.182 −0.011 > 4000 15 0.256 −1.542 凹型坡 140 1.224 −0.072
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表 6 评价因子逻辑回归分析
Table 6. Logistic regression analysis of evaluation factors
评价因子 β SE wald sig B 0.986 0.108 23.956 0.000 C 0.483 0.315 2.349 0.125 D 0.327 0.428 0.584 0.445 E 1.402 0.476 8.677 0.003 G −0.694 0.380 3.329 0.068 H 0.521 0.191 7.449 0.006 I 0.739 0.097 58.100 0.000 K 0.639 0.275 5.383 0.020 L 1.608 2.787 1.143 0.285 N −0.351 0.360 0.951 0.329 常量 0.021 0.132 1.346 0.317
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