Visualization analysis of research literature on early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors in the past 20 years
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摘要:
中国地质灾害气象预警始于 2003 年，每年汛期向公众发布预警信息，警示群众注意防范降雨引发的崩塌滑坡泥石流等地质灾害。为了更深入了解地质灾害气象风险预警研究的现状和未来趋势，以中国知网及SCI-Expanded国内外数据库作为数据来源，采用可视化工具CiteSpace，梳理了2003—2023年发表的国内外地质灾害气象风险预警文献，绘制科学知识图谱，分别从研究主题、演进趋势和研究热点进行多维度分析。结果表明：（1）基于历史降雨及灾害关系的临界降雨阈值研究在地质灾害气象风险预警研究中处于主导地位，与降雨相关阈值研究在未来仍将是研究热点；（2）关键词聚类分析显示不同地质灾害形成条件、气象条件下，不同类型、成因模式的地质灾害发生的预警预报模型、临界阈值研究文献占比较高，表明精细化是地质灾害气象风险预警发展的重要方向；（3）在国际上，中国学者发文量占总发文量的39%，我国在地质灾害气象风险预警研究中有绝对优势。研究结果较客观地展示了中国地质灾害气象风险预警研究的发展脉络和国内外研究热点及趋势，以期有助于我国地质灾害研究与预警预报业务进步。
Abstract:Early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors in China began in 2003, and early warning informations are issued to the public every year during the flood season to alert the public to guard against geo-hazards such as landslides, debris flows, and mudslides caused by rainfall. To better understand the current situation and future trends of research for early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors, the visualization tool CiteSpace was utilized to review the domestic and foreign literature on geo-hazards meteorological risk warning published from 2003 to 2023 and construct the scientific knowledge map. The CNKI database and SCI-Expanded databases were used as data sources. The result show that: (1) The study of critical rainfall thresholds based on the relationship between historical rainfall and disaster is in the leading position in research on early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors, and the study of rainfall-related thresholds will continue to be a research hotspot in the future. (2) Keyword cluster analysis shows that a large number of studies have conducted research on early warning and prediction models and critical thresholds of geo-hazards under different formation conditions, meteorological conditions, different types, and genetic models, indicating that refinement is an important direction for the development of early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors. (3) In the international research, Chinese scholars account for 39% of the total number of publications, showing an absolute advantage in research on geo-hazards meteorological risk early warning. The research results objectively demonstrate the development context, domestic and foreign research hotspots, and trends of research on geo-hazards meteorological risk warning in China, aiming to contribute to the progress of geo-hazards research and early warning forcast business in China.
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Key words:
- geo-hazards /
- early warning /
- bibliometrics /
- visual analysis /
- CiteSpace
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表 1 数据来源
Table 1. Data sources
数据库 CNKI SCI-E 检索词汇 地质灾害、滑坡、泥石流、崩塌、降水阈值、降雨阈值、临界降水、临界雨量、有效雨量、降水、气象、预测、预警、预报 geologic* hazard*、geologic* disast*、geologic* calamit*、landslid* 、debrisflow*、collaps*、rockfall* 、avalanch*、warning*、threshold*、rainfall 、predict* 、forecast* 、warn* 时间范围 2003—2023 2003—2023 来源类别 EI 来源期刊、核心期刊、
CSCD、学位论文期刊 文献检索数量 1040 856 
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表 2 CNKI 数据库地质灾害气象风险预警研究高频关键词
Table 2. High-frequency keywords in research on early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors in CNKI database
序号 高频关键词 频次 1 地质灾害 200 2 泥石流 168 3 滑坡 154 4 预警预报 118 5 临界雨量 92 6 降雨阈值 71 7 山洪 54 8 降雨 42 9 预警模型 30 10 暴雨 25 11 监测预警 25 12 气象预警 24 13 降水 22 14 机器学习 15 15 有效雨量 14 16 发育特征 12 17 汶川地震 12 18 数值模拟 11 19 前期降雨 10 20 气象条件 10
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表 3 地质灾害气象风险预警领域英文发文量排名前20国家（地区）分布
Table 3. Distribution of top 20 countries (regions) in English publications in early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors research
序号 国家（地区） 发文量/篇 占比/% 1 中国 274 32.01 2 意大利 194 22.66 3 美国 124 14.49 4 中国台湾省 60 7.01 5 印度 57 6.66 6 韩国 43 5.02 7 日本 40 4.67 8 英国 38 4.44 9 澳大利亚 29 3.39 10 荷兰 29 3.39 11 西班牙 22 2.57 12 瑞士 22 2.57 13 法国 21 2.45 14 德国 17 1.99 15 挪威 17 1.99 16 马来西亚 16 1.87 17 奥地利 15 1.75 18 巴西 13 1.52 19 加拿大 12 1.40 20 尼泊尔 12 1.40
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表 4 SCI-Expend数据库地质灾害气象风险预警研究高频关键词
Table 4. High-frequency keywords in research on early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors in SCI-E database
序号 高频关键词 频次 1 debris flows 324 2 shallow landslides 290 3 rainfall thresholds 284 4 initiation 204 5 intensity 185 6 duration control 172 7 model 171 8 prediction 153 9 thresholds 91 10 hazard 84 11 susceptibility 76 12 logistic regression 66 13 precipitation 65 14 system 64 15 landslides 58 16 rainfall 47 17 area 45 18 climate change 44 19 early warning system 43 20 definition 43
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