20-year early warning for regional geo-hazards risk in China: 2003-2022
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摘要:
地质灾害气象风险预警业务自2003年启动以来,对我国地质灾害防灾减灾起到了重要支撑作用。文章全面总结了预警工作20年的发展历程、预警技术方法和防灾减灾成效。（1）将预警工作历程分为启动推进（2003—2009年）、深化合作（2010—2017年）和改革提升（2018—2022年）三个阶段。（2）以24 h预警业务为主体，逐步形成了预测预报预警的递进式预警模式和较完善的预警业务系统。（3）逐步形成包括临界降水阈值模型、基于地质灾害危险性的阈值模型和动力预警模型等3套预警模型技术方法体系，2023年发布行业标准。（4）预警产品时空精度不断提高，国家级和26个省级预警空间精度高于5 km×5 km，以24 h预警为主，向72 h、中长期预测等尺度发展；超过8个省级和部分市县级开展了3 h短临预警，逐步形成支撑服务长期部署、中期防范和短临应对的业务体系。（5）有预警必有响应，2020年自然资源部将国家级预警作为启动防御响应的依据之一，18个省份在省级突发地质灾害应急预案中明确了预警响应联动工作机制。（6）多方联动防灾意识不断增强，收到预警信息后，加强巡查排查和组织人员撤离实现成功避险的案例不断增加，防灾减灾成效显著。20年来的预警工作总结，可为下一步推进地质灾害气象风险预警业务提供借鉴，支撑提升我国地质灾害防治工作能力和水平。
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关键词:
- 地质灾害 /
- 地质灾害气象风险预警 /
- 发展历程 /
- 技术方法 /
- 减灾成效
Abstract:Early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors has played an important supportive role in disaster prevention and mitigation in China since its inception in 2003. This paper summarizes the the 20-year development process, technical methods, and disaster reduction effects of the early warning works. (1) The development process of early warning work process is divided into three stages: initiation and promotion (2003-2009), deepening cooperation (2010-2017), and reform and enhancement (2018-2022). (2) With 24-hour early warning work as the main content, a progressive warning model and a relatively complete warning service system have been gradually formed. (3) Three sets of early warning model technology and method systems have been gradually developed, including critical precipitation threshold model, the threshold model based on geo-hazards risk, and the dynamic early warning models, with the publication of industry standards for warning. (4) The spatial and temporal accuracy of warning products continues to improve, with the national and 26 provincial warning spatial accuracies exceeding 5 km × 5 km. The focus is on 24-hour warnings, with development towards 72-hour and medium- to long-term forecasts. Over 8 provincial-level and some municipal and county-level authorities have implemented 3-hour short-term warnings, gradually forming a work system to support service short impending warning response, medium-term prevention and long term deployment. (5) Where there is warning, there is response. The Ministry of Natural Resources has taken the national early warning as one of the bases for initiating defense responses, and 18 provinces have clarified the working mechanisms of the early warning response linkage. (6) The awareness of multi-party disaster prevention has been continuously enhanced. With strengthened inspections,evacuations, and successful risk aversion after receiving early warning information, the effectiveness of disaster prevention and mitigation is evident. The experience of early warning works in the past 20-year can provide reference for the next step in promoting the early warning of geo-hazards based on meteorological factors, supporting the enhancement of China’s capability and level of geo-hazards prevention and control work.
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表 1 20年地质灾害气象风险预警关键技术进展汇总表
Table 1. 20-year development progress of refined meteorological early risk warning for geo-hazards
时间节点 2003年 2012年 2022年 地质灾害
调查基础1∶10万县市地质灾害调查 1∶10万地质灾害调查2020个县；1∶5万地质灾害
详细调查450个县；地质灾害风险普查94个县1∶5万地质灾害详细调查1897个县；第一次全国自然灾害风险普查2177个县；1∶5万地质灾害风险调查1501个县 地质灾害
灾情数据700多个灾害点。参数：灾害点个数 20万个灾害点。参数：灾害频次、规模、体积 40万个灾害点。参数：灾害位置坐标、发生详细时间、引发因素、规模体积、造成人员伤亡及经济损失、监测预警类型及数据等 监测网络 2500个雨量站点 气象部门雨量站3.9万个；自然资源部门简易
滑坡裂缝报警器和地面裂缝伸缩仪20余万套气象部门1万余个国家级地面气象观测站、近6万个省级气象观测站，在轨气象卫星9颗，240余部新一代天气雷达、X波段天气雷达；自然资源部门5.5万处地质灾害监测站点 模型方法 临界降雨阈值模型 临界降雨阈值模型；基于危险性的预警模型 临界降雨阈值模型；基于危险性的预警模型；基于机器学习的预警模型；分灾种、雨型的预警模型 系统平台 国家级预警系统1个 国家级预警系统1个；省级预警系统26个 国家级预警系统1个（升级2次）；省级预警系统30个；市级预警系统164个；县级预警系统652个 空间精度 1∶600万精度，空间精度为60 km×60 km 国家级预警精度为10 km×10 km；区域或
局地易发区空间精度为5 km×5 km国家级预警精度5 km×5 km；18个省级预警精度5 km×5 km；8个省级预警精度1 km×1 km 时间精度 24 h预警 24 h预警；局地逐3 h、逐6 h的短临预警 趋势预测（年、季、月、72 h）、汛期常规预警（24 h）、短临预警（12 h、6 h、3 h、1 h）的预测、预报和预警体系 规范标准 无 《地质灾害气象风险预警工作要求》（试行）（2009） 《地质灾害预报技术规程》（DB61/T 589—2013）（陕西省地方标准）；《地质灾害区域气象风险预警标准（试行）》（T/CAGHP 039—2018）；《暴雨诱发的地质灾害气象风险预警等级》（QX/T 487—2019）；《突发地质灾害预警响应技术导则（试行）》（T/CAGHP 081—2022）；地质灾害气象风险预警规范（DZ/T 0449—2023） 
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