Study on rainfall threshold of different lithologic landslides in Bailong River Basin of Gansu Province
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摘要:
降雨引发斜坡破坏的阈值是地质灾害预警的基础。文章以2004—2019年白龙江流域甘肃段5个县区内因长期强降雨引发的滑坡作为研究对象，采用频数法研究不同岩性特征的滑坡降雨预警阈值。构建了不同概率等级下，引发滑坡的事件降雨量（event rainfall）与降雨历时（duration of rainfall）之间的关系模型，并给出了下限临界累计降雨阈值。通过2020年陇南武都区暴洪灾害引发的滑坡特征及降雨数据验证，滑坡前雨量计监测获得的累计降雨量与模型给出的临界累计降雨阈值基本相符，对持续强降雨引发的滑坡灾害的预警具有指导意义。
Abstract:The research results regarding the threshold values for slope disasters caused by rainfall are crucial for geological disaster prevention. In this study, landslides induced by long-term heavy rainfall occurred in five counties within the Gansu section of the Bailongjiang Basin between 2004 and 2019. Using the frequency method, the rainfall thresholds for early warning of rainfall type landslides with different rock characteristics were investigated. A relationship model between event rainfall and the duration of rainfall leading to landslides was constructed under different probability levels, and a lower threshold for critical cumulative rainfall was provided. Through verification of landslide characteristics and rainfall data resulting from a flash flood disaster in Wudu District in 2020, the accumulated rainfall measured by the rainfall gauge before the landslide is found to be consistent with the threshold given by the model. This finding is of guiding significance for early warning of landslide disasters caused by sustained heavy rainfall.
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表 1 岩性类型的划分标准
Table 1. Classification Standards for Lithological Types
软硬类型 主要岩性类型 极软 层状碎屑岩：古近系砾岩；新近系砾岩、页岩、泥质砂岩 坚硬 块状岩浆岩：花岗岩、辉绿岩、辉长岩、闪长岩、
闪长玢岩、闪斜煌斑岩等较软 层状碎屑岩：白垩系砾岩、砂岩、泥岩 较硬 层状碳酸盐岩：三叠系、二叠系灰岩、砂岩、页岩等
泥盆系板岩、砂岩、页岩、灰岩等软硬相间 ①层状变质岩：二叠系砂岩、砂质板岩、凝灰岩、千枚岩；
志留系砂岩、石灰岩、千枚岩、板岩
②层状碳酸盐岩：泥盆系板岩、千枚岩、灰岩
③层状碎屑岩：侏罗系砂岩、泥岩、砾岩、页岩松散物质 第四系残坡积碎石土、粉质黏土、强风化千枚岩、砾石 
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表 2 不同岩性类型的斜坡在各预警等级下发生滑坡前不同降雨历时下的累计雨量
Table 2. Duration and cumulative rainfall before landslides occur on slopes of different rock types at different warning levels
/mm 滑坡类型 预警等级 降雨历时/d 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 松散物质 低（P=15%） 6.43 10.59 14.18 17.45 20.49 23.36 26.10 28.74 31.28 33.75 36.14 38.48 中（P=25%） 7.94 13.08 17.51 21.54 25.30 28.85 32.23 35.49 38.63 41.67 44.63 47.52 高（P=40%） 10.91 17.97 24.06 29.60 34.76 39.64 44.29 48.76 53.07 57.26 61.32 65.29 极高（P=60%） 18.79 30.95 41.44 50.98 59.87 68.26 76.28 83.98 91.41 98.61 105.62 112.44 极软岩类 低（P=15%） 9.25 13.45 16.74 19.55 22.06 24.34 26.45 28.43 30.30 32.07 33.77 35.39 中（P=25%） 12.30 17.88 22.26 26.00 29.33 32.37 35.18 37.81 40.29 42.65 44.90 47.06 高（P=40%） 18.88 27.45 34.17 39.91 45.02 49.68 54.00 58.03 61.84 65.46 68.92 72.24 极高（P=60%） 31.48 45.77 56.97 66.55 75.07 82.84 90.03 96.76 103.12 109.15 114.92 120.45 软硬相间 低（P=15%） 9.79 13.47 16.23 18.52 20.53 22.32 23.96 25.48 26.90 28.23 29.50 30.70 中（P=25%） 11.61 15.97 19.24 21.97 24.34 26.47 28.42 30.22 31.90 33.48 34.98 36.41 高（P=40%） 15.00 20.63 24.86 28.38 31.45 34.20 36.71 39.04 41.21 43.26 45.20 47.05 极高（P=60%） 21.09 29.01 34.96 39.90 44.22 48.09 51.62 54.89 57.95 60.82 63.55 66.15
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表 3 不同岩性类型滑坡事件对应的预警等级
Table 3. Warning levels corresponding to landslide events of various lithologic types
滑坡类型 预警等级 滑坡/处 事件比例/% 松散物质 低（P<25%） 0 0 中（25%≤P<40%） 3 7.89 高（40%≤P<60%） 10 26.32 极高（P≥60%） 25 65.79 极软岩类 低（P<25%） 0 0 中（25%≤P<40%） 0 0 高（40%≤P<60%） 1 11.11 极高（P≥60%） 8 88.89 软硬相间 低（P<25%） 1 8.33 中（25%≤P<40%） 0 0 高（40%≤P<60%） 1 8.33 极高（P≥60%） 10 83.33
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