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甘肃积石山Ms6.2级地震区滑坡危险性评价与区划

王秀琴, 牛全福, 王浩, 程西安, 李克恭, 牛虎林. 甘肃积石山Ms6.2级地震区滑坡危险性评价与区划[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2025, 36(1): 169-181. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202405010
引用本文: 王秀琴, 牛全福, 王浩, 程西安, 李克恭, 牛虎林. 甘肃积石山Ms6.2级地震区滑坡危险性评价与区划[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2025, 36(1): 169-181. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202405010
WANG Xiuqin, NIU Quanfu, WANG Hao, CHENG Xi’an, LI Kegong, NIU Hulin. Risk assessment of landslides induced by the Ms6.2 earthquake in Jishishan, Gansu Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2025, 36(1): 169-181. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202405010
Citation: WANG Xiuqin, NIU Quanfu, WANG Hao, CHENG Xi’an, LI Kegong, NIU Hulin. Risk assessment of landslides induced by the Ms6.2 earthquake in Jishishan, Gansu Province[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2025, 36(1): 169-181. doi: 10.16031/j.cnki.issn.1003-8035.202405010

甘肃积石山Ms6.2级地震区滑坡危险性评价与区划

  • 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(42261069);甘肃省科技厅重点研发计划项目(22YF7FA074)
详细信息
    作者简介: 王秀琴(1974—),甘肃甘谷人,地图学与地理信息系统专业,硕士,研究方向为灾害遥感。E-mail:330398304@qq.com
    通讯作者: 牛全福(1973—),甘肃甘谷人,地图学与地理信息系统专业,博士,教授,研究方向为环境遥感。E-mail:Niuqf@lut.edu.cn
  • 中图分类号: P642.22

Risk assessment of landslides induced by the Ms6.2 earthquake in Jishishan, Gansu Province

More Information
  • 2023年12月18日23时59分,甘肃省积石山县发生Ms6.2级地震,造成大量人员伤亡及崩塌和滑坡等地震次生灾害。基于震前震后高分辨率卫星影像,利用目视解译的灾害点和影响因子特征集构建MaxEnt模型进行地震后滑坡灾害危险性评价,研究认为:(1)地震诱发滑坡灾害点主要分布在17002250 m高程带、坡度20°~25°的阳坡范围内,在距道路距离1.5 km、距断裂带距离1.7 km、距地震中心距离5 km区间广布;(2)由影响因子的贡献率和置换重要性、测试效益值、AUC 值和正则化训练增益值综合得到地震诱发滑坡的主要影响因子为距断裂带的距离、海拔和人口分布;(3)基于构建的MaxEnt模型,得出极高和高危险区主要分布于地震烈度为Ⅷ度区,其面积为5.368 km2,占极高和高危险区总面积的77.82%,而低和极低危险区主要分布于Ⅵ和Ⅶ度区,面积百分比分别为75.33%和97.55%。文章在影响因子重要性分析基础上构建MaxEnt 模型进行震区滑坡灾害危险性评价,研究结果将为震区灾后重建提供参考。

  • 加载中
  • 图 1  研究区概况

    Figure 1. 

    图 2  积石山地震诱发滑坡灾害点空间分布

    Figure 2. 

    图 3  滑坡灾害点的地形因子分布

    Figure 3. 

    图 4  滑坡灾害点的各距离因子分布

    Figure 4. 

    图 5  滑坡灾害点的其他因子分布

    Figure 5. 

    图 6  ROC评价结果

    Figure 6. 

    图 7  影响因子刀切法检验结果

    Figure 7. 

    图 8  影响因子响应曲线

    Figure 8. 

    图 9  土地利用与土壤质地的滑坡响应直方图

    Figure 9. 

    图 10  积石山Ms6.2级地震诱发的滑坡危险性评价结果

    Figure 10. 

    图 11  积石山震区典型滑坡

    Figure 11. 

    表 1  甘肃积石山Ms6.2级地震及余震数据

    Table 1.  Ms6.2 Jishishan earthquake and its aftershocks in Gansu Province

    序号 发震时刻 纬度 经度 深度/km 震级/Ms 地名 备注
    1 2023-12-18T23:59:30.0 35°42′ 102°47′ 10 6.2 积石山县 震中
    2 2023-12-19T00:24:49.9 35°44′ 102°47′ 10 3.9 积石山县 余震
    3 2023-12-19T00:36:18.3 35°47′ 102°47′ 10 4.0 积石山县 余震
    4 2023-12-19T00:43:12.9 35°47′ 102°46′ 10 3.4 积石山县 余震
    5 2023-12-19T00:56:51.3 35°42′ 102°47′ 10 3.4 积石山县 余震
    6 2023-12-19T00:59:11.3 35°44′ 102°46′ 10 3.1 积石山县 余震
    7 2023-12-19T00:59:39.0 35°50′ 102°47′ 10 4.1 积石山县 余震
    8 2023-12-19T01:10:31.4 35°48′ 102°47′ 10 3.2 积石山县 余震
    9 2023-12-19T01:20:12.6 35°48′ 102°46′ 10 3.2 积石山县 余震
    10 2023-12-19T02:10:06.4 35°50′ 102°46′ 10 3.2 积石山县 余震
    11 2023-12-19T00:32:52.9 35°46′ 102°47′ 9 3.4 积石山县 余震
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 2  甘肃积石山Ms6.2级地震诱发滑坡灾害影响因子数据

    Table 2.  Disaster-causing factors of landslides induced by the Ms6.2 Jishishan earthquake in Gansu Province

    环境变量 影响因子 数据来源
    地形因子 高程、坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、平面曲率、
    曲率、距河流距离、TWI
    高程数据为数字高程模型(DEM),下载自ASF官网(https://search.asf.alaska.edu/#/),
    其它因子数据为DEM的派生数据
    断裂带 距断裂带的距离 断裂带数据下载自国家地震科学数据中心(https://search.asf.alaska.edu/#/
    土壤质地 土壤质地数据 下载自世界土壤数据库(https://www.fao.org/
    道路 距道路的距离 OSM官网(https://www.openstreetmap.org/
    人口 人口分布密度 OSM官网(https://www.openstreetmap.org/
    土地利用 地表覆盖 武汉大学CLCD数据集(https://zenodo.org/
    植被 归一化植被指数 国家青藏高原科学数据中心(https://data.tpda.ac.cn/home
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 3  AUC评价标准

    Table 3.  AUC evaluation criteria

    AUC 精度评价
    [0, 0.6) 很差
    [0.6, 0.7) 较差
    [0.7, 0.8) 一般
    [0.8, 0.9)
    [0.9, 1] 极好
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 4  滑坡灾害主要影响因子贡献率和置换重要性

    Table 4.  Contribution rates and permutation importance of main disaster-causing factors of landslides

    序号 因子 贡献率/% 置换重要性/%
    1 距断裂带距离 39 48.3
    2 高程 38.1 45.1
    3 人口分布 17.8 1.4
    4 土壤质地 1.3 1.3
    5 距河流距离 1.2 2.4
    6 归一化植被指数 0.8 0.6
    7 坡度 0.8 0.1
    8 距道路距离 0.6 0.5
    9 坡向 0.3 0.2
    10 地形湿度指数 0.1 0
    11 土地利用 0 0
    12 平面曲率 0 0
    13 剖面曲率 0 0
    14 曲率 0 0
    下载: 导出CSV

    表 5  不同地震烈度区的危险性等级面积百分比统计

    Table 5.  Area percentage of different risk grades in various seismic intensity zones

    地震烈度 极高危险/% 高危险/% 中危险/% 低危险/% 极低危险/%
    Ⅷ区 6.91 19.47 28.82 11.76 33.05
    Ⅶ区 1.80 5.95 16.92 16.12 59.21
    Ⅵ区 0.03 0.23 2.19 6.15 91.40
    下载: 导出CSV
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收稿日期:  2024-05-08
修回日期:  2024-09-05
录用日期:  2025-01-03
刊出日期:  2025-02-25

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